河流生态用水流量确定新方法研究

新修改的《中华人民共和国水法》明确提出要维持江河的生态用水流量,以维持水体的自然净化能力,确保健康河流。经过对多种计算方法分析、比较,提出了河流生态用水流量的内涵与计算方法,该法简单可行,不但有一定的理论价值,而且有一定的实用价值,可供实际工作参考使用。     

Sensitivity of generation reserve requirements in deregulated power systems

Since demand for power exhibits great variability the amount of firm energy to be purchased to meet real time demand based on forecasts is usually different from the realized demand for that period. The role of generation reserves is to meet the real time fluctuations of power demand. The predictable part of the demand is met through purchases of firm energy. In this paper a model is presented to determine optimal quantities of firm energy and generation reserves to meet random demands. The model is then parameterized introducing a set of factors to perform a sensitivity study. A full factorial experiment is designed to study the impact of five factors on the response variable (i.e., proportion of generation reserves on the total purchased quantity). An example consisting of 640 simulations corresponding to 2⁵ treatment combinations evaluated over 20 randomly generated mean demands is used to identify significant factors on the response variable. Results from the experiment suggest that generation reserve requirements should be adjusted considering changes in significant factors and in the mean demand over the dispatch interval.     

Strategic appraisal of energy models for Mozambique

The needs that an energy supply system must meet are constantly changing, due to technological, social and political reasons. Effective energy planning is a dynamic process that is repeated periodically and adjusts to changing conditions. Energy decision makers and planners are no longer able to rely on inductive decision making since they have to investigate the effect of various decision parameters and possible future changes. To help in this process, models have been developed where estimates of future load growth, candidate power plants, fuels and other key factors can be introduced, from which the planners can evaluate decision parameters and the available alternatives. The paper presents the different methodologies and practices that are used by 11 energy models for energy demand forecasting, supply side management and generation expansion planning, demand side management and integrated resource planning. The paper concludes to the presentation of a strategic appraisal of the examined energy models appropriate for energy planning in Mozambique. Three models are proposed for conducting demand forecasting, generation expansion planning and demand side management. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

2010-2020年深圳市机动车发展和油气需求量预测

介绍了深圳市机动车发展现状,分别用趋势外推法、城市比较分析法和分类法预测了2010-2020年深圳市的机动车保有量,最后预测了机动车的油气需求量。     

城市燃气管网GIS系统的开发

随着我国天然气工业的不断发展，对于城市天然气管网的智能化管理已经作为一个全新的课题出现在燃气企业里。过去所使用的MIS系统（Management Information System），无论从效率、准确度、智能程度上讲，都已经不能满足目前城市燃气管网的精确管理。因此地理信息系统（Geography Information System，简称GIS系统）作为一种新的计算机管理系统应运而生，其主要特点是：有精确的管理、有标准的地图提供直接判断、空间关系与实物对应明确、管理直观。文章以企业对管理系统的需求以及技术可行性为出发点，阐述了GIS系统应具有的基本性能；同时结合燃气工程技术的发展，对燃气GIS系统做了应用开发研究；此外还对现阶段部分燃气GIS信息系统的不足做出了分析。     

VOD在有线电视网的实现

从视频点播系统的结构及组成和在有线电视网络中VOD系统的结构模式与应用两个方面，详细地阐述了如何利用有线电视网络实现视频点播，主要从以下3个方面介绍关于视频点播系统VOD技术：①视频点播VOD的技术原理；②视频点播系统的结构及组成；③有线电视视频点播系统的结构模式与应用。     

ADSL MODEM 远程管理方案浅析

阐述了ADSLMODEM远程管理的意义及应遵循的原则，并对远程管理的方案作了简要阐述，最后比较分析了不同方案的优缺点。     

The Challenge of the Market

Identifying markets for new or improved products for minor crops threatened with extinction is one critical component of any strategy intended to enhance prospects for sustainable production and use. Typically, however, activities linked to the sustainability of these commodities avoid addressing questions associated with assessing their commercial potential. After a brief review of this avoidance syndrome, this article presents a sample of practical, low-cost procedures to help evaluate the market prospects and procedures for crops like quinoa, while citing references to other methodological materials covering similar topics.     

Demand elasticities in OECD: Dynamical aspects

Four models with different lag structures are used to express final energy demand in OECD from 1960–1982 as a function of real GDP and average energy price. The income and long-run price elasticities are not significantly dependent on the model specification, but the Koyck lag scheme, estimated in its distributed lag form, is found to give the most satisfactory results. The statistical properties of the data together with evidence of trends in the elasticities both suggest that the period of falling real prices prior to 1971 is not comparable to the present period. For the period after 1971, an income elsticity of 1.02 and a long-run price elasticity of -0.37 are obtained.     

Decentralized energy supply: Suitability for the UK's industrial sectors

From the results reported here it is suggested that policy decisions about the potential contribution of decentralized energy supply systems to UK industrial energy requirements should be based on the suitability of individual sectors rather than averaged over all sectors. The suitability of decentralized energy sources is evaluated, based on a themodynamic match between source and demand. This suitability criterion is used to identify the most appropriate sector in manufacturing industries for the adoption of decentralized energy supply, leaving aside economic cost considerations and individual site requirements.