Probabilistic cost prediction for submarine power cable projects

It is estimated that Europe alone will need to add over 250,000 km of transmission capacity by 2050, if it is to meet renewable energy production goals while maintaining security of supply. Estimating the cost of new transmission infrastructure is difficult, but it is crucial to predict these costs as accurately as possible, given their importance to the energy transition. Transmission capacity expansion plans are often founded on optimistic projections of expansion costs. We present probabilistic predictive models of the cost of submarine power cables, which can be used by policymakers, industry, and academia to better approximate the true cost of transmission expansion plans. The models are both generalizable and well-specified for a variety of submarine applications, across a variety of regions. The best performing statistical learning model has slightly more predictive power than a simpler, linear econometric model. The specific decision context will determine whether the extra data gathering effort for the statistical learning model is worth the additional precision. A case study illustrates that incorporating the uncertainty associated with the cost prediction to calculate risk metrics - value-at-risk and conditional-value-at-risk - provides useful information to the decision-maker about cost variability and extremes.     

火电厂电气监控系统接入DCS方式的分析

分析了火电厂电气监控系统（ECS）接入集散控制系统（DCS）的3种模式：硬接线、硬接线+通信、全通信,探讨了不同模式的优缺点和应用中存在的问题,认为硬接线+通信方式是目前火电厂ECS接入DCS的主流解决方案,大大提高了ECS的自动化水平,但目前在应用中还存在ECS与DCS的通信受限、ECS的电气维护和管理功能不十分完善等问题,通过技术的改进、参与各方的密切配合,相信这些问题会很好地得到解决,随着通信技术的日趋成熟和稳定,完全取消硬接线的全通信方式也一定会逐步得到推广。     

高阻燃通信线缆的应用状况分析

介绍通信线缆的应用现状,提出应重视通信线缆的阻燃性能,并通过对CM、CMR、CMP和LSOH线缆进行燃烧实验对比其阻燃性能,实验证明CMP线缆具有在最短时间内自我熄灭且不续燃的功能。     

Eavesdropping the display image from conducted emission on network cable of a PC

The display image of a PC can be reconstructed by using the conducted emission on the PC＇s network cable. The relevant signals which be used to reconstruct the original image are coupling from the radiation of the switching of red, green, blue （RGB） signals in PC. These pertinent signals are partly contained in the frequency region higher than 30 MHz in the conducted emission. From these findings, the near-field coupling principle from PC to the network cable is analyzed firstly. And then, a multi-conductor transmission model for the RGB signals which transmit in the network cable is proposed. In addition, the maximum safe distance is estimated by using this model. In order to check the validity of the estimating distance, the eavesdropping experiment is carried out to reconstruct the original display image. The results demonstrate that the blurred display image can be retrieved at the place of 29.5 m.     

High‐dose cefazolin on consecutive hemodialysis in anuric patients with Staphylococcal bacteremia

Methicillin‐sensitive Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) bacteremia is a leading cause of infection in hemodialysis (HD) patients. Cloxacillin, cefazolin, and vancomycin are the mainstay antimicrobials. Cloxacillin administration leads to frequent drug dosing, longer length of stay (LOS), and higher cost, while resistance and poorer outcomes are associated with vancomycin use. Dosing cefazolin during HD allows for prolonged blood therapeutic levels. We assessed the outcomes and safety of a strategy of treating MSSA bacteremia with 2–3 g cefazolin on HD only. All HD patients with MSSA bacteremia admitted in June–December 2009 at our center and receiving this regime were compared with historical controls who received cloxacillin. Demographic characteristics and outcome measures like mortality, LOS, cost, recrudescence, and adverse drug reactions were assessed. Of 27 consecutive episodes reviewed, 14 and 13 patients received cefazolin and cloxacillin, respectively. Baseline demographics were comparable between the 2 treatment groups. More than one‐third of the bacteremia was related to tunneled catheter infection. The 30‐day mortality of cloxacillin‐ and cefazolin‐treated patients was 15% and 7%, respectively (P=0.14). Two of the 11 survivors treated with cloxacillin (18%) had recrudescent bacteremia while none was observed in cefazolin‐treated survivors. Cefazolin was associated with shorter LOS (10 vs. 20 days, P<0.05) and lower cost (US$8262.00 vs. US$15,367.00, P<0.05). Cefazolin use resulted in 3 idiosyncratic adverse drug reactions. Cefazolin dosed on each HD in MSSA bacteremia leads to earlier discharge and less cost. Larger prospective studies are, however, warranted to fully assess its safety and efficacy.     

An analysis of the length of hospital stay for cataract patients in Japan using the discrete-type proportional hazard model

We analyze the length of hospital stays of patients hospitalized for cataract and related diseases (Diagnosis Related Groups (DRG) 2041) in Japan, utilizing the data pertaining to 3436 patients on whom one-eye lens operations are performed. We use the discrete-type proportional hazard model to analyze variables that may affect the length of stay.     

用全息摄影术测量XLPE高压电缆绝缘中杂质颗粒的研究

应用Fraunhofer全息技术发展了一种测量交联聚乙烯(XLPE)电缆绝缘中杂质颗粒的方法。通过对被硅油加热透明的电缆绝缘内杂质颗粒的全息记录、全息图再现,可测得4.0cm长,任意大直径的一段交联电缆绝缘内的杂质颗粒。新方法比起传统的显微镜下切片测量法大大地增加了测量体积,使抽样检查的样本数增加,提高了测得结果的统计学可信度。该方法获得全场内50μm的分辨力和优于8％的精度。本文对新方法的原理进行了描述,实验结果进行了介绍,并进行了验证性对比实验。     

关于金属蜗壳和座环打压试验必要性的讨论

在分析构件应力状态基础上，通过总结已做的打压试验，从设计、制造和安装出发，考虑蜗壳和座环今后结构的发展趋势，参照国外近年来发表的有关文献，作者提出：在保证焊接质量并认真进行焊缝检验的条件下不可不进行劳民伤财的蜗壳座环现场打压试验。     

Analysis and design of ribbon cables for high‐speed digital applications

Ribbon cables have been widely used as subsystem interconnections in a large number of digital systems, because they can convey numerous bits of a digital signal simultaneously. In this article, finite difference and finite difference time domain (FDTD) methods are used to analyze and optimize the electrostatic analysis design of ribbon cables, and measurements are used to verify the numerical results. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Int J RF and Microwave CAE 12: 148–158, 2002.     

莲花水电站水轮机座环及蜗壳的特点

本文介绍了莲花水站站水轮机座环和蜗壳采用了先进的设计、制造和安装工艺等手段，为该机组的稳定运行奠定了基础。