一种新的基于直觉模糊集的作战决策算法

针对现有作战决策算法存在的不足,提出了一种新的基于直觉模糊集的作战决策算法.用直觉模糊值表示可行方案指标的不确定信息,综合考虑了方案满足指标的可能性、不满足的可能性和未知的可能性3个方面的因素,给出了直觉模糊决策矩阵的建立方法和可行方案优劣度排序方法.实例及实际应用证明了算法的有效性与可行性.     

Model Selection in Applied Science and Engineering: A Decision-Theoretic Approach

Mathematical models are developed and used to study the properties of complex systems in just about every area of applied science and engineering. Information on the system being modeled is, in general, incomplete, so that there may be two or more models consistent with the available information. The collection of these models is called the class of candidate models. A decision-theoretic method is developed for selecting the optimal member from the collection. The optimal model depends on the available information, the class of candidate models, and the model use. The candidate models may be deterministic or random. Classical methods for model selection, including the method of maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods, are briefly reviewed. These methods ignore model use and require data to be available. In addition, examples are used to show that classical methods for model selection can be unreliable in the sense that they can deliver unsatisfactory models when data is limited. The proposed decision-theoretic method for model selection does not have these limitations. The method accounts for model use via a utility function. This feature is especially important when modeling high-risk systems where the consequences of using an inappropriate model for the system can be disastrous.     

Generation and selection of likely interpretations during plan recognition in task-oriented consultation systems

This paper presents a mechanism which infers a user's plans from his/her utterances by directing the inference process towards the more likely interpretations of a speaker's statements among many possible interpretations. Our mechanism uses Bayesian theory of probability to assess the likelihood of an interpretation, and it complements this assessment by taking into consideration two aspects of an interpretation: its coherence and its information content. The coherence of an interpretation is determined by the relationships between the different statements in the discourse. The information content of an interpretation is a measure of how well defined the interpretation is in terms of the actions to be performed on the basis of this interpretation. This measure is used to guide the inference process towards interpretations with higher information content. The information content of an interpretation depends on the specificity and the certainty of the inferences in it, where the certainty of an inference depends on the knowledge on which the inference is based. Our mechanism has been developed for use in task-oriented consultation systems. The particular domain that we have chosen for exploration is that of travel booking.     

Computer support for strategic organizational decision-making

While information systems continue to be promoted within organizations as tools to support strategic decision-making, there is growing concern over the ability of such systems to model the social and political complexity of the situations to which they are being applied. This paper examines the nature of organizational decision-making and the use of computer-based systems to support this activity. The debate queries the extent to which such artifacts should be allowed to become enmeshed and embedded within the strategic decision-making activities of organizations which operate within increasingly complex environments.     

DSS research and practice in perspective

The aim of this paper is to assess the state-of-the-art in the Decision Support Systems (DSS) field from both a research and a practice perspective. Three main dimensions of DSS research and practice are addressed: 1) supporting human decision-making processes, 2) integrating DSS into the organizational context, and 3) identifying new application domains. The related analysis and discussion provides a better understanding of past developments in the DSS field and insights into future evolution patterns.     

An evaluation system of the setting up of predictive maintenance programmes

Predictive Maintenance can provide an increase in safety, quality and availability in industrial plants. However, the setting up of a Predictive Maintenance Programme is a strategic decision that until now has lacked analysis of questions related to its setting up, management and control. In this paper, an evaluation system is proposed that carries out the decision making in relation to the feasibility of the setting up. The evaluation system uses a combination of tools belonging to operational research such as: Analytic Hierarchy Process, decision rules and Bayesian tools. This system is a help tool available to the managers of Predictive Maintenance Programmes which can both increase the number of Predictive Maintenance Programmes set up and avoid the failure of these programmes. The Evaluation System has been tested in a petrochemical plant and in a food industry.     

Reliability-based failure cause assessment of collapsed bridge during construction

Until now, in many forensic reports, the failure cause assessments are usually carried out by a deterministic approach so far. However, it may be possible for the forensic investigation to lead to unreasonable results far from the real collapse scenario, because the deterministic approach does not systematically take into account any information on the uncertainties involved in the failures of structures.Reliability-based failure cause assessment (reliability-based forensic engineering) methodology is developed which can incorporate the uncertainties involved in structural failures and structures, and to apply them to the collapsed bridge in order to identify the most critical failure scenario and find the cause that triggered the bridge collapse. Moreover, to save the time and cost of evaluation, an algorithm of automated event tree analysis (ETA) is proposed and possible to automatically calculate the failure probabilities of the failure events and the occurrence probabilities of failure scenarios. Also, for reliability analysis, uncertainties are estimated more reasonably by using the Bayesian approach based on the experimental laboratory testing data in the forensic report. For the applicability, the proposed approach is applied to the Hang-ju Grand Bridge, which collapsed during construction, and compared with deterministic approach.     

Learning Recursive Bayesian Multinets for Data Clustering by Means of Constructive Induction

This paper introduces and evaluates a new class of knowledge model, the recursive Bayesian multinet (RBMN), which encodes the joint probability distribution of a given database. RBMNs extend Bayesian networks (BNs) as well as partitional clustering systems. Briefly, a RBMN is a decision tree with component BNs at the leaves. A RBMN is learnt using a greedy, heuristic approach akin to that used by many supervised decision tree learners, but where BNs are learnt at leaves using constructive induction. A key idea is to treat expected data as real data. This allows us to complete the database and to take advantage of a closed form for the marginal likelihood of the expected complete data that factorizes into separate marginal likelihoods for each family (a node and its parents). Our approach is evaluated on synthetic and real-world databases.     

Inference and learning in hybrid probabilistic network

This paper proposed a novel hybrid probabilistic network, which is a good tradeoff between the model complexity and learnability in practice. It relaxes the conditional independence assumptions of Naive Bayes while still permitting efficient inference and learning. Experimental studies on a set of natural domains prove its clear advantages with respect to the generalization ability.