生产调度决策优化系统Orion

炼油化工企业的生产装置是一个连续的、有机的整体，调度生产作业计划是确保生产优化、平稳、有序的基础。先介绍中国国内生产调度计划软件的发展情况，接着论述中国石化股份公司长岭分公司引进AspenTech公司的生产调度系统Aspen Orion及二次开发过程，就其技术与经验以飨同行。     

基于模糊控制原理的多目标决策方法

在模糊控制原理的基础上,对于含有定性变量的多目标决策问题提出了一种新的求解方法:先把目标值与权重进行模糊化,再通过模糊推理和反模糊化过程直接得到各方案的评价值,进而进行多目标决策.具体实例的计算结果表明,该方法具有简单、实用、直观的优点.     

Bayesian and Dempster-Shafer fusion

The Kalman Filter is traditionally viewed as a prediction-correction filtering algorithm. In this work we show that it can be viewed as a Bayesian fusion algorithm and derive it using Bayesian arguments. We begin with an outline of Bayes theory, using it to discuss well-known quantities such as priors, likelihood and posteriors, and we provide the basic Bayesian fusion equation. We derive the Kalman Filter from this equation using a novel method to evaluate the Chapman-Kolmogorov prediction integral. We then use the theory to fuse data from multiple sensors. Vying with this approach is the Dempster-Shafer theory, which deals with measures of “belief”, and is based on the nonclassical idea of “mass” as opposed to probability. Although these two measures look very similar, there are some differences. We point them out through outlining the ideas of the Dempster-Shafer theory and presenting the basic Dempster-Shafer fusion equation. Finally we compare the two methods, and discuss the relative merits and demerits using an illustrative example.     

A Bayesian model for measurements on a set of instruments

A Bayesian model is proposed based on randomizing the systematic errors of the instruments. Conditions are identified under which the randomization reduces the expected bias in estimating a measured quantity. __________ Translated from Izmeritel’naya Tekhnika, No. 3, pp. 22–25, March, 2007.     

Reconstruction of a discontinuous function from a few fourier coefficients using bayesian estimation

The goal of this paper is the application of spectral methods to the numerical solution of conservation law equations. Spectral methods furnish estimates of the firstn Fourier coefficients of the solution. But since the solutions of conservation law equations can have discontinuities, the estimate of the solution by summing the firstn terms of the Fourier series will haveO(1/n) error, even if the Fourier coefficients are known to high accuracy. But if the solution could be accurately reconstructed from its Fourier coefficients, spectral methods could be used effectively in these problems. A method for doing this is to assume a probability distribution for functions. Functions which are smooth away from the discontinuity are assumed to be likely, and those which are not smooth away from the discontinuity are assumed to be unlikely. Then a reconstruction algorithm is chosen by minimizing the expected error over all algorithms. It is possible to put the smoothness assumptions mentioned earlier into an infinite-dimensional Gaussian probability distribution, and then the minimum-error algorithm is well-known and fairly simple to construct and apply. If the Fourier coefficients of the reconstructed function are known exactly, then this approach gives very good results. But when used with Fourier coefficients obtained from a spectral approximation to Burgers' equation, the results were much less impressive, probably because the coefficients were not known very accurately. It is possible to construct filters that reconstruct a function using Legendre or Chebyshev coefficients for information instead Fourier coefficients. It is found that the performance of these filters is similar to the Fourier case.     

利用数据中心构建数字化钻井施工模式

世界石油钻井技术不断向信息化、智能化方向发展,为适应钻井技术的发展,构建了数字化钻井施工模式框架。从井场信息采集设施、井场网络环境、井场信息采集处理软件、井场工程监测软件等方面阐述了数字化钻井队的构建方法,从钻井数据库设计、数据流向及数据加载、数据发布等方面阐述了钻井数据中心的构成,从钻井设计系统、钻井远程监测系统、井眼轨迹控制系统以及专家系统等方面描述了钻井辅助决策平台主要功能。除了理论研究之外,还简要介绍了研究成果在现场的应用情况。这些研究成果是国内"数字油田"建设的基础,必将促进钻井行业的信息技术发展。     

经济边际在油气资源勘探开发中的应用方法研究

油气资源勘探开发的经济边际分析是从石油企业的边际利润出发，确定石油企业的最优投入产出水平，为作出科学的投资决策和生产决策提供依据，界定了有关油气资源勘探开发经济边际的概念和内涵，探讨了石油企业边际成本和边际收入的确定方法。     

一种基于满意度方法的建筑工程索赔决策模型

本文在对索赔问题进行全面系统分析基础上，提出一种索赔主体对索赔事件的不确定性分析模型和决策满意度模型，并进一步讨论了索赔主体优选索赔方案作为索赔报告提出的方法。     

Mixture of probability distributions as a basic component in simulating measurement accuracy

A stochastic model is proposed for a basic mechanism in the formation of uncertainties in physical quantity measurements. __________ Translated from Izmeritel'naya Tekhnika, No. 1, pp. 12–17, January, 2006.