Enhancing cognitive radio systems with robust reasoning

Cognitive radio systems dynamically reconfigure the algorithms and parameters they use, in order to adapt to the changing environment conditions. However, reaching proper reconfiguration decisions presupposes a way of knowing, with high enough assurance, the capabilities of the alternate configurations, especially in terms of achievable transmission capacity and coverage. The present paper addresses this problem, firstly, by specifying a complete process for extracting estimations of the capabilities of candidate configurations, in terms of transmission capacity and coverage, and, secondly, by enhancing these estimations with the employment of a machine learning technique. The technique is based on the use of Bayesian Networks, in conjunction with an effective learning and adaptation strategy, and aims at extracting and exploiting knowledge and experience, in order to reach robust (i.e. stable and reliable) estimations of the configurations' capabilities. Comprehensive results of the proposed method are presented, in order to validate its functionality. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The meaning(s) of conditionals: Conditional probabilities, mental models, and personal utilities.

[Correction Notice: An erratum for this article was reported in Vol 29(6) of Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition (see record 2007-16865-001). On page 684, Table 4, all correlations should have been identified as having a pp then q") as indicating a high conditional probability P(q|p). Participants estimated the probability that a given conditional is true (Experiments 1A, 1B, and 3) or judged whether a conditional was true or false (Experiments 2 and 4) given information about the frequencies of the relevant truth table cases. Judgments were strongly influenced by the ratio of pq to p?q cases, supporting the conditional probability account. In Experiments 1A, 1B, and 3, judgments were also affected by the frequency of pq cases, consistent with a version of mental model theory. Experiments 3 and 4 extended the results to thematic conditionals and showed that the pragmatic utility associated with believing a statement also affected the degree of belief in conditionals but not in logically equivalent quantified statements. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Decision support in early development phases—A case study from machine engineering

In the case study presented in this paper we consider early development phases of a mechanical product. We want to evaluate different concepts and decide which one(s) to pursue. A problem in early phases is that usually no test runs are available. In our case study, based on a standard, there are ways to compute the lifetime distributions of the components of the different concepts. Some parameters needed for these computations are not known precisely. Unfortunately, the lifetime distributions of the components are highly sensitive to these parameters. Our approach is to equip these parameters with distributions. These distributions would be called prior distributions in Bayesian terminology, but no update is possible since no test runs are available. Our approach implies that the distribution of the system lifetime for each concept is random, i.e. we get random elements in the space of lifetime distributions. Using Monte-Carlo simulations, we demonstrate several ways to compare the random lifetime distributions of the concepts. Some of these comparisons use stochastic orderings. We also introduce a new stochastic ordering which is particularly suitable for reliability purposes. Our case study, consisting of three scenarios, allows us to demonstrate some conclusions that can be reached.     

Can being scared cause tummy aches? Naive theories, ambiguous evidence, and preschoolers' causal inferences.

Causal learning requires integrating constraints provided by domain-specific theories with domain-general statistical learning. In order to investigate the interaction between these factors, the authors presented preschoolers with stories pitting their existing theories against statistical evidence. Each child heard 2 stories in which 2 candidate causes co-occurred with an effect. Evidence was presented in the form: AB→E; CA→E; AD→E; and so forth. In 1 story, all variables came from the same domain; in the other, the recurring candidate cause, A, came from a different domain (A was a psychological cause of a biological effect). After receiving this statistical evidence, children were asked to identify the cause of the effect on a new trial. Consistent with the predictions of a Bayesian model, all children were more likely to identify A as the cause within domains than across domains. Whereas 3.5-year-olds learned only from the within-domain evidence, 4- and 5-year-olds learned from the cross-domain evidence and were able to transfer their new expectations about psychosomatic causality to a novel task. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Subspace distance analysis with application to adaptive Bayesian algorithm for face recognition

We propose subspace distance measures to analyze the similarity between intrapersonal face subspaces, which characterize the variations between face images of the same individual. We call the conventional intrapersonal subspace average intrapersonal subspace (AIS) because the image differences often come from a large number of persons. An intrapersonal subspace is referred to as specific intrapersonal subspace (SIS) if the image differences are from just one person. We demonstrate that SIS varies significantly from person to person, and most SISs are not similar to AIS. Based on these observations, we introduce the maximum a posteriori (MAP) adaptation to the problem of SIS estimation, and apply it to the Bayesian face recognition algorithm. Experimental results show that the adaptive Bayesian algorithm outperforms the non-adaptive Bayesian algorithm as well as Eigenface and Fisherface methods if a small number of adaptation images are available.     

Bayes网络与关系模型的集成:概率关系模型

对象关系模型和Bayes网络分别是关系理论和概率理论两个不同领域中最重要的模型，它们首次集成于本文引入的概率关系模型中，作为新型的概率模型，概率关系模型不仅继承了Bayes网络的大部分优点，而且关系特征和对象的概念使它能有效地克服Bayes网络在许多方面的不足，而成为对复杂系统模建的理想工具，是对Bayes网络的重要创新；作为新型的关系模型，概率关系模型也是对传统关系模型的重要创新，具备概率特征的对象关系模型有了处理不确定性问题的能力。概率关系模型的创建对复杂智能信息系统开发研究有有着特别重要的意义，本文首先评述Bayes网络和对象关系模型，然后在此基础上引入概率关系模型。     

Bayesian inference in disputed authorship: A case study of cognitive errors and a new system for decision support

Bayesian inference provides a formal framework for assessing the odds of hypotheses in light of evidence. This makes Bayesian inference applicable to a wide range of diagnostic challenges in the field of chance discovery, including the problem of disputed authorship that arises in electronic commerce, counter-terrorism and other forensic applications. For example, when two documents are so similar that one is likely to be a hoax written from the other, the question is: Which document is most likely the source and which document is most likely the hoax? Here I review a Bayesian study of disputed authorship performed by a biblical scholar, and I show that the scholar makes critical errors with respect to several issues, namely: Causal Basis, Likelihood Judgment and Conditional Dependency. The scholar’s errors are important because they have a large effect on his conclusions and because similar errors often occur when people, both experts and novices, are faced with the challenges of Bayesian inference. As a practical solution, I introduce a graphical system designed to help prevent the observed errors. I discuss how this decision support system applies more generally to any problem of Bayesian inference, and how it differs from the graphical models of Bayesian Networks.     

Search for the upper bound of Bayesian estimates of the parameter in an exponential failure model with two known quantiles of an a priori distribution function

A fast exact algorithm of searching for the upper bound of Bayesian estimates for the parameter of the exponential distribution under the condition that an a priori distribution belongs to the class of all distribution functions with two equal quantiles. This problem arises in analyzing the sensitivity of Bayesian estimates to the choice of an a priori distribution in an exponential failure model. __________ Translated from Kibernetika i Sistemnyi Analiz, No. 1, pp. 90–102, January–February 2007.