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为探究不同洪水预报智能模型在我国半干旱半湿润区的应用效果,选用决策树、多层感知器、随机森林和支持向量机4种模型在陕西省3个典型流域进行逐时洪水预报;选择相关系数、纳什效率系数、均方根误差、平均绝对误差和相对误差等评价指标,比较不同预见期下4种模型在半干旱半湿润典型流域洪水预报的适用性。结果表明:在短预见期预报中,4种模型在半湿润区典型流域均可获得较高的预报结果,在半干旱典型流域模拟精度相对偏低,仅支持向量机模型满足预报要求;随着预见期延长,不同模型性能变化差异大,支持向量机模型整体稳定,在小流域实时洪水预报中具有明显优势;随机森林模型与决策树模型精度随预见期延长而缓慢下降,前者适应性更好;多层感知器模型精度随预见期延长而骤减,模型稳定性较差。 相似文献
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We propose an approach for dependence tree structure learning via copula. A nonparametric algorithm for copula estimation is presented. Then a Chow-Liu like method based on dependence measure via copula is proposed to estimate maximum spanning bivariate copula associated with bivariate dependence relations. The main advantage of the approach is that learning with empirical copula focuses on dependence relations among random variables, without the need to know the properties of individual variables as well as without the requirement to specify parametric family of entire underlying distribution for individual variables. Experiments on two real-application data sets show the effectiveness of the proposed method. 相似文献
86.
Nowadays, various imitations of natural processes are used to solve challenging optimization problems faster and more accurately. Spin glass based optimization, specifically, has shown strong local search capability and parallel processing. But, spin glasses have a low rate of convergence since they use Monte Carlo simulation techniques such as simulated annealing (SA). Here, we propose two algorithms that combine the long range effect in spin glasses with extremal optimization (EO-SA) and learning automata (LA-SA). Instead of arbitrarily flipping spins at each step, these two strategies aim to choose the next spin and selectively exploiting the optimization landscape. As shown in this paper, this selection strategy can lead to faster rate of convergence and improved performance. The resulting two algorithms are then used to solve portfolio selection problem that is a non-polynomial (NP) complete problem. Comparison of test results indicates that the two algorithms, while being very different in strategy, provide similar performance and reach comparable probability distributions for spin selection. Furthermore, experiments show there is no difference in speed of LA-SA or EO-SA for glasses with fewer spins, but EO-SA responds much better than LA-SA for large glasses. This is confirmed by tests results of five of the world's major stock markets. In the last, the convergence speed is compared to other heuristic methods such as Neural Network (NN), Tabu Search (TS), and Genetic Algorithm (GA) to approve the truthfulness of proposed methods. 相似文献
87.
Fault detection and isolation in rotating machinery is very important from an industrial viewpoint as it can help in maintenance activities and significantly reduce the down-time of the machine, resulting in major cost savings. Traditional methods have been found to be not very accurate. Soft computing based methods are now being increasingly employed for the purpose. The proposed method is based on a genetic programming technique which is known as gene expression programming (GEP). GEP is somewhat a new member of the genetic programming family. The main objective of this paper is to compare the classification accuracy of the proposed evolutionary computing based method with other pattern classification approaches such as support vector machine (SVM), Wavelet-GEP, and proximal support vector machine (PSVM). For this purpose, six states viz., normal, bearing fault, impeller fault, seal fault, impeller and bearing fault together, cavitation are simulated on centrifugal pump. Decision tree algorithm is used to select the features. The results obtained using GEP is compared with the performance of Wavelet-GEP, support vector machine (SVM) and proximal support vector machine (PSVM) based classifiers. It is observed that both GEP and SVM equally outperform the other two classifiers (PSVM and Wavelet-GEP) considered in the present study. 相似文献
88.
文章通过某装备维修信息框架分析,维修数据预处理,然后以维修记录为例,挖掘出了维修件之间关联规则,并采用决策树分类方法对维修件进行了分类,这些规则和分类结果可以为维修计划制定、器材采购、视情维修等方面提供决策依据。 相似文献
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应用传统的分类检索方法进行粉螨亚目螨种的分类鉴定是一个复杂、繁琐的过程。随着人工智能技术的发展,采用专家系统技术编制螨种分类鉴定软件将改变传统的分类鉴定方式。通过学习粉螨亚目的分类学和专家系统的相关知识,将螨种的分类鉴定与专家系统有机地结合起来,采用面向对象方法,设计并实现了基于决策树的螨种分类鉴定专家系统。通过构建基于面向对象的决策树知识表示模型,提炼出螨种知识库的记录结构,根据节点对象的逻辑关系,设计了基于决策树的推理机制,并按照一定的推理控制策略实现了螨种的分类鉴定。结果证明,满足了用户的需要,具有重要的实践价值。 相似文献