Alternatives for improving energy security in Cape Verde

The lack of consensus on the meaning of energy security and how it should be measured hinders the evaluation of alternatives for improving the Cape Verdean energy sector. The objective of the paper is to develop an energy security index adjusted to the country's context. The methods used are the multi-criteria analysis and the Delphi survey. Different alternatives to improve energy security are assessed: electrically interconnect Cape Verde's islands, increase the share of renewable energy, and a combination of the previous alternatives. The results of our analysis indicate that increasing renewable energy is the optimal alternative for Cape Verde.     

公路隧道喷射混凝土套拱加固结构力学特性

为研究喷射混凝土套拱加固前后二次衬砌与混凝土套拱的受力状况,依托陕西汉中至留坝段八里关隧道,运用有限元软件建立隧道混凝土结构套拱加固分析模型,并通过现场监测获取二次衬砌与套拱间的接触压力、套拱格栅拱架钢筋应力、套拱混凝土应力,将数值模拟结果与现场测试结果相结合,得出套拱结构的一般受力变化规律。结果表明:套拱加固前衬砌结构的最不利荷载位置位于施工缝附近的拱顶、拱肩与拱脚处; 由于衬砌局部变形与温度应力的影响,套拱混凝土应力变化呈现反复“上升-下降-上升”最后趋于稳定的特点; 套拱的作用是控制二次衬砌的进一步变形,套拱施作后所承受荷载较小,套拱反作用力远小于围岩作用于衬砌的应力,在应力计算中不应将衬砌与套拱作为整体计算; 套拱结构数值模拟所得的结果与现场测试套拱结构内力(轴力、弯矩)的大小及分布相似度高,但在衬砌裂损严重部位,数值模拟所得结果误差较大,应以现场测试结果为准。     

A bat-neural network multi-agent system (BNNMAS) for stock price prediction: Case study of DAX stock price

Creating an intelligent system that can accurately predict stock price in a robust way has always been a subject of great interest for many investors and financial analysts. Predicting future trends of financial markets is more remarkable these days especially after the recent global financial crisis. So traders who access to a powerful engine for extracting helpful information throw raw data can meet the success. In this paper we propose a new intelligent model in a multi-agent framework called bat-neural network multi-agent system (BNNMAS) to predict stock price. The model performs in a four layer multi-agent framework to predict eight years of DAX stock price in quarterly periods. The capability of BNNMAS is evaluated by applying both on fundamental and technical DAX stock price data and comparing the outcomes with the results of other methods such as genetic algorithm neural network (GANN) and some standard models like generalized regression neural network (GRNN), etc. The model tested for predicting DAX stock price a period of time that global financial crisis was faced to economics. The results show that BNNMAS significantly performs accurate and reliable, so it can be considered as a suitable tool for predicting stock price specially in a long term periods.     

Design criterion for fatigue strengthening of riveted beams in a 120-year-old railway metallic bridge using pre-stressed CFRP plates

This study presents a design criterion developed for fatigue strengthening of a 120-year-old metallic railway bridge in Switzerland and presents a pre-stressed un-bonded reinforcement (PUR) system developed to apply the strengthening. The PUR system uses carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) plates; however, unlike conventional pre-stressed CFRP reinforcement methods, preparation of the existing metallic bridge surface is not required. This decreases the time required for on-site strengthening procedures. The principle of the constant life diagram (CLD) and two fatigue failure criteria (Johnson and Goodman) are described. Analytical formulations are developed based on the CLD method to determine the minimum CFRP pre-stress level required to prevent fatigue crack initiation. The PUR system uses an applied pre-stress force to reduce the mean stress level (and stress ratio) to shift an existing fatigue-susceptible metallic detail from the ‘at risk’ finite life regime to the ‘safe’ infinite life regime. The applied CLD method is particularly valuable when the stress history of the detail is not known and it is difficult to assess the remaining fatigue life. Moreover, it is shown that the currently adopted approach in many structural codes which emphasizes stress range as the dominant parameter influencing fatigue life are non-conservative for tension–tension stress patterns (i.e., stress ratios of 0 < R < 1). Analyses show that the modified Johnson formula accurately reflects the combined effect of stress range, mean stress level, and material properties, and offers a relatively easy design procedure. Details of a retrofit field application on members of a riveted wrought iron railway bridge are given. A wireless sensor network (WSN) system is used for long-term monitoring of the on-site CFRP stress levels and temperature of the retrofitted details. WSN measurements indicate that increases in ambient temperature result in increased CFRP pre-stress levels.     

Static and free vibration analysis of functionally graded plates based on a new quasi-3D and 2D shear deformation theories

In this study, two dimensional (2D) and quasi three-dimensional (quasi-3D) shear deformation theories are presented for static and free vibration analysis of single-layer functionally graded (FG) plates using a new hyperbolic shape function. The material of the plate is inhomogeneous and the material properties assumed to vary continuously in the thickness direction by three different distributions; power-law, exponential and Mori–Tanaka model, in terms of the volume fractions of the constituents. The fundamental governing equations which take into account the effects of both transverse shear and normal stresses are derived through the Hamilton's principle. The closed form solutions are obtained by using Navier technique and then fundamental frequencies are found by solving the results of eigenvalue problems. In-plane stress components have been obtained by the constitutive equations of composite plates. The transverse stress components have been obtained by integrating the three-dimensional stress equilibrium equations in the thickness direction of the plate. The accuracy of the present method is demonstrated by comparisons with the different 2D, 3D and quasi-3D solutions available in the literature.     

浅谈氯碱氢的一种深度脱水工艺

概述了氢的主要工业生产方法和实际应用,详细介绍了氯碱氢三级脱水工艺过程,并运用在线分析手段,准确显示了干燥过程中的氯碱氢水分含量变化规律。     

Nonlinear response in glass fibre non-crimp fabric reinforced vinylester composites

This paper addresses the nonlinear stress-strain response in glass fibre non-crimp fabric reinforced vinylester composite laminates subjected to in-plane tensile loading. The nonlinearity is shown to be a combination of brittle and plastic failure. It is argued that the shift from plastic to brittle behaviour in the vinylester is caused by the state of stress triaxiality caused by the interaction between fibre and vinylester. A model combining damage and plasticity is calibrated and evaluated using data from extensive experimental testing. The onset of damage is predicted using the Puck failure criterion, and the evolution of damage is calibrated from the observed softening in plies loaded in transverse tension. Shear loading beyond linear elastic response is observed to result in irreversible strains. A yield criterion is implemented for shear deformation. A strain hardening law is fitted to the stress-strain response observed in shear loaded plies. Experimental results from a selection of laminates with different layups are used to verify the numerical models. A complete set of model parameters for predicting elastic behaviour, strength and post failure softening is presented for glass fibre non-crimped fabric reinforced vinylester. The predicted behaviour from using these model parameters are shown to be in good agreement with experimental results.     

Application of higher order spectral features and support vector machines for bearing faults classification

Condition monitoring and fault diagnosis of rolling element bearings timely and accurately are very important to ensure the reliability of rotating machinery. This paper presents a novel pattern classification approach for bearings diagnostics, which combines the higher order spectra analysis features and support vector machine classifier. The use of non-linear features motivated by the higher order spectra has been reported to be a promising approach to analyze the non-linear and non-Gaussian characteristics of the mechanical vibration signals. The vibration bi-spectrum (third order spectrum) patterns are extracted as the feature vectors presenting different bearing faults. The extracted bi-spectrum features are subjected to principal component analysis for dimensionality reduction. These principal components were fed to support vector machine to distinguish four kinds of bearing faults covering different levels of severity for each fault type, which were measured in the experimental test bench running under different working conditions. In order to find the optimal parameters for the multi-class support vector machine model, a grid-search method in combination with 10-fold cross-validation has been used. Based on the correct classification of bearing patterns in the test set, in each fold the performance measures are computed. The average of these performance measures is computed to report the overall performance of the support vector machine classifier. In addition, in fault detection problems, the performance of a detection algorithm usually depends on the trade-off between robustness and sensitivity. The sensitivity and robustness of the proposed method are explored by running a series of experiments. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve made the results more convincing. The results indicated that the proposed method can reliably identify different fault patterns of rolling element bearings based on vibration signals.