改进Elman神经网络在短期热负荷预测中的应用

热电厂的短期热负荷预测在城市集中供暖中起着至关重要的作用,直接影响热电厂的经济效益和热能利用率。电厂的短期热负荷一般采用神经网络预测模型进行预测,而BP神经网络应用最为广泛。Elman神经网络算法在BP神经网络基础上加入了承接层,作为一步延时算子,实现记忆能力,使系统具备适应时变能力,增强系统全局稳定性。但Elman神经网络算法模型的构造依然需要大量样本的支撑,而且输入层的变量多,导致预测时间依然很长,收敛速度慢。该文在Elman神经网络预测前,进行了相关系数预处理和对样本中异常值的平均化预处理,通过数据归一化运算,使Elman神经网络输入层变量大幅减少。仿真实验表明,改进的Elman神经网络算法使预测模型快速寻优,减少预测时间的同时明显提高预测精度。     

基于启发式BP算法的软件缺陷预测模型

针对软件缺陷预测时缺陷数据集中存在的类别分布不平衡问题，结合上采样算法SMOTE与Edited Nearest Neighbor (ENN) 数据清洗策略，提出了一种基于启发式BP神经网络算法的软件缺陷预测模型。模型中采用上采样算法SMOTE增加少数类样本以改善项目中的数据不平衡状况，并针对采样后数据噪声问题进行ENN数据清洗，结合基于启发式学习的模拟退火算法改进四层BP神经网络后建立分类预测模型，在AEEEM数据库上使用交叉验证对提出的方案进行性能评估，结果表明所提出的算法能够有效提高模型在预测类不平衡数据时的分类准确度。     

压裂水平井产能预测方法研究进展

水平井压裂技术在低渗透及非常规储层中得到了广泛应用,压裂后水平井的产能预测关系到油田开发方案的制定,因此,国内外学者对压后渗流模型的建立和求解方法做出了不懈的努力。本文详细回顾了国内外学者所建压裂水平井产能预测模型及求解方法,指出了不同模型和求解方法的优缺点,并展望了压裂水平井产能模型的发展方向。     

基于梯度提升决策树的车轮轮缘厚度磨耗预测

轮对在列车走行过程中起着导向、承受以及传递载荷的作用，其踏面及轮缘磨耗对地铁列车运行安全性和钢轨的寿命都将产生重要影响。根据地铁列车车轮磨耗机理，分析车轮尺寸数据特点，针对轮缘厚度这一型面参数，基于梯度提升决策树算法构建轮缘厚度磨耗预测模型。在该模型的基础上，任意选取某轮对数据进行验证分析，结果表明：基于梯度提升决策树的轮对磨耗预测模型具有较好的预测精度，可预测出1~6个月的轮缘厚度变化趋势范围，预测时间范围较长，可为地铁维保部门对轮对的维修方式由状态修转为预防修提供指导性建议。     

A signal adaptive diffusion filter for video coding: Mathematical framework and complexity reductions

In this paper we combine video compression and modern image processing methods. We construct novel iterative filter methods for prediction signals based on Partial Differential Equation (PDE) based methods. The mathematical framework of the employed diffusion filter class is given and some desirable properties are stated. In particular, two types of diffusion filters are constructed: a uniform diffusion filter using a fixed filter mask and a signal adaptive diffusion filter that incorporates the structures of the underlying prediction signal. The latter has the advantage of not attenuating existing edges while the uniform filter is less complex. The filters are embedded into a software based on HEVC with additional QTBT (Quadtree plus Binary Tree) and MTT (Multi-Type-Tree) block structure. In this setting, several measures to reduce the coding complexity of the tool are introduced, discussed and tested thoroughly. The coding complexity is reduced by up to 70% while maintaining over 80% of the gain. Overall, the diffusion filter method achieves average bitrate savings of 2.27% for Random Access having an average encoder runtime complexity of 119% and 117% decoder runtime complexity. For individual test sequences, results of 7.36% for Random Access are accomplished.     

Vertical cyclic loading response of geosynthetic-encased stone column in soft clay

Dynamic responses of the geosynthetic-encased stone column (GESC) supported embankment under traffic loads have become a hot topic. This study investigates the responses of GESC improved ground under vertical cyclic loading. A series of laboratory tests in a designed model test tank have been carried out with different loading parameters (varied loading amplitudes and frequencies), different column dimensions (varied encasement lengths and column diameters). In the tests, the soil-column stress distribution, accumulated settlement of loading plate, excess pore water pressure in the surrounding soil and lateral bulging of the stone column are monitored. Experimental results indicate that the vertical stress on the stone column increases with the increment of encasement length, and decreases with the increment of column diameter, loading amplitude and loading frequency. The increasing stress on the surrounding soil leads to a greater accumulated settlement of the loading plate and excess pore water pressure, while the increasing stress on the column leads to larger lateral bulging of the column. Excess pore water pressure dissipates effectively through vertical and horizontal drainage channels provided by the stone column and the sand bed. The geosynthetic encasement prevents the clay from obstructing the drainage channel by filtration and guarantees the drainage effect.     

高温氢工质热物理性质计算分析

氢工质在新能源与动力、航天推进、化工材料等领域有着广泛应用。通过开展高温氢工质热力学与输运性质研究，建立了原子态氢、分子态氢、热解平衡态氢的热物理性质计算模型，开发了热物性计算程序Prop_H_H2，适用范围为温度100~3 500 K、压力104~5×107 Pa 。验证表明，Prop_H_H2在适用范围内计算氢工质的物性参数合理可靠，在温度200~3 000 K、压力104~107 Pa范围内，程序预测值更加准确，相对偏差在±5%左右。本研究可为氢工质相关的航天推进、应用物理学、能源动力等行业的科研和应用提供支持借鉴。     

Evolving an Accurate Decision Tree-Based Model for Predicting Carbon Dioxide Solubility in Polymers

Solubility is one of the most indispensable physicochemical properties determining the compatibility of components of a blending system. Research has been focused on the solubility of carbon dioxide in polymers as a significant application of green chemistry. To replace costly and time-consuming experiments, a novel solubility prediction model based on a decision tree, called the stochastic gradient boosting algorithm, was proposed to predict CO₂ solubility in 13 different polymers, based on 515 published experimental data lines. The results indicate that the proposed ensemble model is an effective method for predicting the CO₂ solubility in various polymers, with highly satisfactory performance and high efficiency. It produces more accurate outputs than other methods such as machine learning schemes and an equation of state approach.     

Characterization of a plasma polymer coating from an organophosphorus silane deposited at atmospheric pressure for fire-retardant purposes

Protective coatings from diethylphosphatoethyltriethoxysilane (DEPETS) have been deposited on different polymer substrates in a plasma discharge operated at atmospheric pressure. Plasma polymer chemistry and structure were characterized by means of Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), laser desorption ionization-mass spectrometry (LDI-MS), nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). A chemical structure of the plasma polymer has been proposed based on the coating molecular characterization. Coatings were deposited on polycarbonate (PC) and polyamide 6 (PA6) substrates. The flame retardant properties of coated substrate samples were assessed using cone calorimetry and compared to those of bare substrates. A significant increase in the time to ignition (TTI), up to +143%, was recorded after coating deposition due to the formation of a high-performance barrier layer at the surface of both polymer substrates.     

综放高瓦斯矿井煤层瓦斯涌出量综合预测

为了成功预测竹林山煤矿综放高瓦斯矿井大采高工作面煤层瓦斯涌出量,以主采3号煤层为主要研究对象,针对3号煤层以往开采情况,通过布设测点测量其煤层瓦斯含量和了解相邻矿井瓦斯含量,采用分源预测法、回归法及统计法等预测方法得到了3号煤层瓦斯含量的分布规律,并绘制了3号煤层的瓦斯含量等值线图。对矿井不同生产时期的瓦斯含量进行预测,得到了生产前期、中期及后期采区的最大绝对瓦斯涌出量和最大相对瓦斯涌出量,说明了竹林山煤矿各个时期均属于高瓦斯矿井。