A new approach for sequential experimental design for model discrimination

Model discrimination procedures are useful tools for selection of the best mathematical models to be used to represent a specific chemical process. The present paper presents and discusses a new sequential discrimination procedure, which makes use of model probabilities and concentrates the efforts on models with higher probabilities. Model probabilities are determined based on simple statistical arguments. Four numerical examples illustrate the application of the proposed discrimination procedure. The obtained results indicate that the new procedure is able to discriminate kinetic models with fewer experiments when compared to other procedures and also indicates when model discrimination is not possible and, thus, when the sequential design must be halted. Furthermore, the speed of the proposed discrimination procedure can be controlled by tuning a design parameter which reflects the analyst's mood (confidence) towards the discrimination problem and allows for increase or decrease of the number of experiments required for model discrimination during the sequential procedure.     

空爆毁伤地面机动目标扫描准则研究

文中主要针对多爆炸成型弹丸空爆战斗部,在分析区域识别和占空比识别两种不同扫描准则的基础上,应用蒙特卡洛方法计算了战斗部对目标的毁伤概率.通过仿真计算结果对比分析,获得了不同扫描准则对毁伤概率的影响,结果可为多爆炸成型弹丸空爆战斗部设计和选择使用扫描准则提供参考依据.     

在役油气管道安全评定软件

PSAforWindows是运行在Windows系统下的油气管道安全评定软件。该软件既可以用于在开挖中发现的管道局部缺陷的剩余强度的精确评定 ,又可以用于腐蚀检测之后对管道全线的安全评定与剩余寿命预测。软件中采用了非线性有限元分析、失效评定图和概率性的评定方法等最新成果。介绍该软件的结构、模块、软件特点、主要功能和操作界面     

Almost k-wise independence versus k-wise independence

We say that a distribution over {0,1}ⁿ is (ε,k)-wise independent if its restriction to every k coordinates results in a distribution that is ε-close to the uniform distribution. A natural question regarding (ε,k)-wise independent distributions is how close they are to some k-wise independent distribution. We show that there exist (ε,k)-wise independent distributions whose statistical distance is at least n^O(k)·ε from any k-wise independent distribution. In addition, we show that for any (ε,k)-wise independent distribution there exists some k-wise independent distribution, whose statistical distance is n^O(k)·ε.     

The meaning(s) of conditionals: Conditional probabilities, mental models, and personal utilities.

[Correction Notice: An erratum for this article was reported in Vol 29(6) of Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition (see record 2007-16865-001). On page 684, Table 4, all correlations should have been identified as having a pp then q") as indicating a high conditional probability P(q|p). Participants estimated the probability that a given conditional is true (Experiments 1A, 1B, and 3) or judged whether a conditional was true or false (Experiments 2 and 4) given information about the frequencies of the relevant truth table cases. Judgments were strongly influenced by the ratio of pq to p?q cases, supporting the conditional probability account. In Experiments 1A, 1B, and 3, judgments were also affected by the frequency of pq cases, consistent with a version of mental model theory. Experiments 3 and 4 extended the results to thematic conditionals and showed that the pragmatic utility associated with believing a statement also affected the degree of belief in conditionals but not in logically equivalent quantified statements. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Study on a Distributed Wavelength Routing Algorithm in WDM Optical Transport Networks

A new design scheme for a distributed algorithm for routing and wavelength assignment (RWA) is developed in this paper, and the communication rules between the nodes to exchange signaling packets are discussed. The Adaptive-Alternate-Routing-Least-Load (AARLL) algorithm is implemented in the distributed scheme for the first time. Under dynamic traffic circumstances, the influence of the race condition, which does not exist in centralized scheme, on the network performance is analyzed and the analyzed results show that the race condition has a major impact on network performance only under light traffic load, while under medium and heavy traffic load the impact is very small. To analyze the performance loss caused by adopting the distributed algorithm for RWA, the capacity loss factor (CLF) is introduced and the calculated results show that CLF does not exceed 6% under medium traffic load.     

Probabilistic cell modelling of cleavage fracture

Various aspects on probabilistic modelling of cleavage fracture are discussed. The investigation involves consideration of a unit cell with an explicitly modelled void. The results from this model are compared with results for the case when the void content is accounted for in the sense of a Gurson-Tvergaard law. It is found that explicit modelling of the void can give substantially different results for the fracture probability. The effect depends on the exponent in the assumed Weibull distribution, the threshold stress, the constraint conditions and the hardening of the material. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Luminescent Efficiency in Single-layer Organic Electrophosphorescent Devices

Based on the charge injection and recombination processes and the triplet-triplet annihilation process, a model to calculate the electro.luminescent（EL） efficiency is presented. The influences of the applied electric field on the injection efficiency, recombination efficiency and electroluminescent efficiency are discussed. It is found that： （1） The injection efficiency is increasing while the recombination efficiency is decreasing with the applied electric field increasing. （2） The EL efficiency is enhanced at low electric field slowly but is decreasing at high electric field with the increase of applied voltage. （3） The EL efficiency is decreasing with the increase of the host-guest molecular distance （R）. So, it is concluded that the EL efficiency in single-layer organic electrophosphorescent devices is dominated by injection efficiency at lower electric field and recombination efficiency at higher electric field.     

Optimal search for signals in a multichannel system: Arbitrary initial distribution in state space merging scheme

Markovian and semi-Markovian random processes are used to analyze the problem of optimal search for signals in a multichannel communication system with arbitrarily distributed random outputs. The search efficiency factor is found in explicit form based on state space merging, and a mathematical programming problem is set up to find a numerical suboptimal solution. __________ Translated from Kibernetika i Sistemnyi Analiz, No. 3, pp. 144–150, May–June 2007.