Mixture ratio modeling of dynamic systems

Any knowledge extraction relies (possibly implicitly) on a hypothesis about the modelled-data dependence. The extracted knowledge ultimately serves to a decision-making (DM). DM always faces uncertainty and this makes probabilistic modelling adequate. The inspected black-box modeling deals with “universal” approximators of the relevant probabilistic model. Finite mixtures with components in the exponential family are often exploited. Their attractiveness stems from their flexibility, the cluster interpretability of components and the existence of algorithms for processing high-dimensional data streams. They are even used in dynamic cases with mutually dependent data records while regression and auto-regression mixture components serve to the dependence modeling. These dynamic models, however, mostly assume data-independent component weights, that is, memoryless transitions between dynamic mixture components. Such mixtures are not universal approximators of dynamic probabilistic models. Formally, this follows from the fact that the set of finite probabilistic mixtures is not closed with respect to the conditioning, which is the key estimation and predictive operation. The paper overcomes this drawback by using ratios of finite mixtures as universally approximating dynamic parametric models. The paper motivates them, elaborates their approximate Bayesian recursive estimation and reveals their application potential.     

A globally convergent BFGS method for pseudo-monotone variational inequality problems

In this paper, we propose a globally convergent BFGS method to solve Variational Inequality Problems (VIPs). In fact, a globalization technique on the basis of the hyperplane projection method is applied to the BFGS method. The technique, which is independent of any merit function, is applicable for pseudo-monotone problems. The proposed method applies the BFGS direction and tries to reduce the distance of iterates to the solution set. This property, called Fejer monotonicity of iterates with respect to the solution set, is the basis of the convergence analysis. The method applied to pseudo-monotone VIP is globally convergent in the sense that subproblems always have unique solutions, and the sequence of iterates converges to a solution to the problem without any regularity assumption. Finally, some numerical simulations are included to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm.     

Transport Map sampling with PGD model reduction for fast dynamical Bayesian data assimilation

The motivation of this work is to address real-time sequential inference of parameters with a full Bayesian formulation. First, the proper generalized decomposition (PGD) is used to reduce the computational evaluation of the posterior density in the online phase. Second, Transport Map sampling is used to build a deterministic coupling between a reference measure and the posterior measure. The determination of the transport maps involves the solution of a minimization problem. As the PGD model is quasi-analytical and under a variable separation form, the use of gradient and Hessian information speeds up the minimization algorithm. Eventually, uncertainty quantification on outputs of interest of the model can be easily performed due to the global feature of the PGD solution over all coordinate domains. Numerical examples highlight the performance of the method.     

Ab initio calculations of the NO2 fission for CL-20 conformers

NO₂ fission is regarded to be the most important initial decomposition process of 2,4,6,8,10,12-hexanitro-2,4,6,8,10,12-hexaazaisowurtzitane (CL-20). In this study, four CL-20 conformers based on the ε-CL-20 were obtained after the optimization at m062x/cc-pvtz level, and the bond length, bond order and bond dissociation energy of the N-N bonds were examined to investigate the stability of these bonds. In addition, the rate constants and activation energy of the NO₂ fission were evaluated using the microcanonical variational transition state theory (μVT). The calculation results have shown that N-N bonds in the case of pseudo-equatorial and axial of nitro groups are the most stable and the least stable, respectively, by evaluating the bond length, bond order and minimum energy path (MEP). The NO₂ fission rate constants are affected by not only the stability of N-N bonds but also the repulsion forces from the other nitro groups, and the fission process for pseudo-equatorial positioning of nitro groups is easier to be accelerated due to the increase of the repulsion forces. The decomposition of CL-20 conformer may mainly originate from the fission of the pseudo-equatorial positioning of nitro groups, especially for CL-20 III conformer because of the significant low activation energy.     

Superior foetal electrocardiogram signal elicitation using a novel artificial intelligent Bayesian methodology

Innumerable casualties due to intrauterine hypoxia are a major worry during prenatal phase besides advanced patient monitoring with latest science and technology. Hence, the analysis of foetal electrocardiogram (fECG) signals is very vital in order to evaluate the foetal heart status for timely recognition of cardiac abnormalities. Regrettably, the latest technology in the cutting edge field of biomedical signal processing does not seem to yield the desired quality of fECG signals required by physicians, which is the major cause for the pathetic condition. The focus of this work is to extort non-invasive fECG signal with highest possible quality with a motive to support physicians in utilizing the methodology for the latest intrapartum monitoring technique called STAN (ST analysis) for forecasting intrapartum foetal hypoxia. However, the critical quandary is that the non-invasive fECG signals recorded from the maternal abdomen are affected by several interferences like power line interference, baseline drift interference, electrode motion interference, muscle movement interference and the maternal electrocardiogram (mECG) being the dominant interference. A novel hybrid methodology called BANFIS (Bayesian adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system) is proposed. The BANFIS includes a Bayesian filter and an adaptive neuro fuzzy filter for mECG elimination and non-linear artefacts removal to yield high quality fECG signal. Kalman filtering frame work has been utilized to estimate the nonlinear transformed mECG component in the abdominal electrocardiogram (aECG). The adaptive neuro fuzzy filter is employed to discover the nonlinearity of the nonlinear transformed version of mECG and to align the estimated mECG signal with the maternal component in the aECG signal for annulment. The outcomes of the investigation by the proposed BANFIS system proved valuable for STAN system for efficient prediction of foetal hypoxia.     

Model Selection for Unsupervised Learning of Visual Context

This study addresses the problem of choosing the most suitable probabilistic model selection criterion for unsupervised learning of visual context of a dynamic scene using mixture models. A rectified Bayesian Information Criterion (BICr) and a Completed Likelihood Akaike’s Information Criterion (CL-AIC) are formulated to estimate the optimal model order (complexity) for a given visual scene. Both criteria are designed to overcome poor model selection by existing popular criteria when the data sample size varies from small to large and the true mixture distribution kernel functions differ from the assumed ones. Extensive experiments on learning visual context for dynamic scene modelling are carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness of BICr and CL-AIC, compared to that of existing popular model selection criteria including BIC, AIC and Integrated Completed Likelihood (ICL). Our study suggests that for learning visual context using a mixture model, BICr is the most appropriate criterion given sparse data, while CL-AIC should be chosen given moderate or large data sample sizes.     

A Lattice Approach to Image Segmentation

After a formal definition of segmentation as the largest partition of the space according to a criterion σ and a function f, the notion of a morphological connection is reminded. It is used as an input to a central theorem of the paper (Theorem 8), that identifies segmentation with the connections that are based on connective criteria. Just as connections, the segmentations can then be regrouped by suprema and infima. The generality of the theorem makes it valid for functions from any space to any other one. Two propositions make precise the AND and OR combinations of connective criteria. The soundness of the approach is demonstrated by listing a series of segmentation techniques. One considers first the cases when the segmentation under study does not involve initial seeds. Various modes of regularity are discussed, which all derive from Lipschitz functions. A second category of examples involves the presence of seeds around which the partition of the space is organized. An overall proposition shows that these examples are a matter for the central theorem. Watershed and jump connection based segmentations illustrate this type of situation. The third and last category of examples deals with cases when the segmentation occurs in an indirect space, such as an histogram, and is then projected back on the actual space under study. The relationships between filtering and segmentation are then investigated. A theoretical chapter introduces and studies the two notions of a pulse opening and of a connected operator. The conditions under which a family of pulse openings can yield a connected filter are clarified. The ability of segmentations to generate pyramids, or hierarchies, is analyzed. A distinction is made between weak hierarchies where the partitions increase when going up in the pyramid, and the strong hierarchies where the various levels are structured as semi-groups, and particularly as granulometric semi-groups. The last section is based on one example, and goes back over the controversy about “lattice” versus “functional” optimization. The problem is now tackled via a case of colour segmentation, where the saturation serves as a cursor between luminance and hue. The emphasis is put on the difficulty of grouping the various necessary optimizations into a single one.     

一类Schrdinger方程组解的爆破

本文研究一类Schrodinger方程组解的爆破行为,在Y.Tsutsumi等(1998)文的基础上对非线性项作了修改,并用变分的方法得到了解在有限时间内爆破的一个充分条件。     

Model Selection in Applied Science and Engineering: A Decision-Theoretic Approach

Mathematical models are developed and used to study the properties of complex systems in just about every area of applied science and engineering. Information on the system being modeled is, in general, incomplete, so that there may be two or more models consistent with the available information. The collection of these models is called the class of candidate models. A decision-theoretic method is developed for selecting the optimal member from the collection. The optimal model depends on the available information, the class of candidate models, and the model use. The candidate models may be deterministic or random. Classical methods for model selection, including the method of maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods, are briefly reviewed. These methods ignore model use and require data to be available. In addition, examples are used to show that classical methods for model selection can be unreliable in the sense that they can deliver unsatisfactory models when data is limited. The proposed decision-theoretic method for model selection does not have these limitations. The method accounts for model use via a utility function. This feature is especially important when modeling high-risk systems where the consequences of using an inappropriate model for the system can be disastrous.     

Generation and selection of likely interpretations during plan recognition in task-oriented consultation systems

This paper presents a mechanism which infers a user's plans from his/her utterances by directing the inference process towards the more likely interpretations of a speaker's statements among many possible interpretations. Our mechanism uses Bayesian theory of probability to assess the likelihood of an interpretation, and it complements this assessment by taking into consideration two aspects of an interpretation: its coherence and its information content. The coherence of an interpretation is determined by the relationships between the different statements in the discourse. The information content of an interpretation is a measure of how well defined the interpretation is in terms of the actions to be performed on the basis of this interpretation. This measure is used to guide the inference process towards interpretations with higher information content. The information content of an interpretation depends on the specificity and the certainty of the inferences in it, where the certainty of an inference depends on the knowledge on which the inference is based. Our mechanism has been developed for use in task-oriented consultation systems. The particular domain that we have chosen for exploration is that of travel booking.