Predicting Prostephanus truncatus (Horn) (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae) populations and associated grain damage in smallholder farmers’ maize stores: A machine learning approach

Prostephanus truncatus is a notorious pest of stored-maize grain and its spread throughout sub-Saharan Africa has led to increased levels of grain storage losses. The current study developed models to predict the level of P. truncatus infestation and associated damage of maize grain in smallholder farmer stores. Data were gathered from grain storage trials conducted in Hwedza and Mbire districts of Zimbabwe and correlated with weather data for each site. Insect counts of P. truncatus and other common stored grain insect pests had a strong correlation with time of year with highest recorded numbers from January to May. Correlation analysis showed insect-generated grain dust from boring and feeding activity to be the best indicator of P. truncatus presence in stores (r = 0.70), while a moderate correlation (r = 0.48) was found between P. truncatus numbers and storage insect parasitic wasps, and grain damage levels significantly correlated with the presence of Tribolium castaneum (r = 0.60). Models were developed for predicting P. truncatus infestation and grain damage using parameter selection algorithms and decision-tree machine learning algorithms with 10-fold cross-validation. The P. truncatus population size prediction model performance was weak (r = 0.43) due to the complicated sampling and detection of the pest and eight-week long period between sampling events. The grain damage prediction model had a stronger correlation coefficient (r = 0.93) and is a good estimator for in situ stored grain insect damage. The models were developed for use under southern African climatic conditions and can be improved with more input data to create more precise models for building decision-support tools for smallholder maize-based production systems.     

应用独立分量分析的激光测风雷达湍流频谱分解

针对大型风力发电机机组中常见的脉动湍流、风机尾流与涡流等湍流信号,研究了利用自然梯度下降的独立分量分析方法的湍流频谱分离效果,以区分中心风速与湍流信号,提高风机机组的综合工作效率。首先分析了风机组中常见湍流信号的后向散射与频谱分布特点,然后依据这些特点设计了对应的独立分量分析模型。在仿真结果符合要求的基础上,进行了双目激光雷达天线的风速采集与实际分离效果检测。实验结果表明,在大气折射率结构常数C2n≤10-14同时广义大气常数α≥4的通常情况下,利用双目信号能够分离出一个湍流中心和一个中心风速。对1 s内两个谱峰的波动范围进行统计,获得(2.59±0.05)MHz的中心风速以及(1.22±0.19)MHz的湍流中心估计,且二者的平均信噪比分别为25.93 dB和31.01 dB,能够在获得稳定的中心风速估计的同时得到一个较为稳定的湍流中心估计。     

改进Elman神经网络在短期热负荷预测中的应用

热电厂的短期热负荷预测在城市集中供暖中起着至关重要的作用,直接影响热电厂的经济效益和热能利用率。电厂的短期热负荷一般采用神经网络预测模型进行预测,而BP神经网络应用最为广泛。Elman神经网络算法在BP神经网络基础上加入了承接层,作为一步延时算子,实现记忆能力,使系统具备适应时变能力,增强系统全局稳定性。但Elman神经网络算法模型的构造依然需要大量样本的支撑,而且输入层的变量多,导致预测时间依然很长,收敛速度慢。该文在Elman神经网络预测前,进行了相关系数预处理和对样本中异常值的平均化预处理,通过数据归一化运算,使Elman神经网络输入层变量大幅减少。仿真实验表明,改进的Elman神经网络算法使预测模型快速寻优,减少预测时间的同时明显提高预测精度。     

基于启发式BP算法的软件缺陷预测模型

针对软件缺陷预测时缺陷数据集中存在的类别分布不平衡问题，结合上采样算法SMOTE与Edited Nearest Neighbor (ENN) 数据清洗策略，提出了一种基于启发式BP神经网络算法的软件缺陷预测模型。模型中采用上采样算法SMOTE增加少数类样本以改善项目中的数据不平衡状况，并针对采样后数据噪声问题进行ENN数据清洗，结合基于启发式学习的模拟退火算法改进四层BP神经网络后建立分类预测模型，在AEEEM数据库上使用交叉验证对提出的方案进行性能评估，结果表明所提出的算法能够有效提高模型在预测类不平衡数据时的分类准确度。     

Transmission system restoration with co-optimization of repairs,load pickups,and generation dispatch

This paper studies the restoration of a transmission system after a significant disruption such as a natural disaster. It considers the co-optimization of repairs, load pickups, and generation dispatch to produce a sequencing of the repairs that minimizes the size of the blackout over time. The core of this process is a Restoration Ordering Problem (ROP), a non-convex mixed-integer nonlinear program that is outside the capabilities of existing solver technologies. To address this computational barrier, the paper examines two approximations of the power flow equations: The DC model and the recently proposed LPAC model. Systematic, large-scale testing indicates that the DC model is not sufficiently accurate for solving the ROP. In contrast, the LPAC power flow model, which captures line losses, reactive power, and voltage magnitudes, is sufficiently accurate to obtain restoration plans that can be converted into AC-feasible power flows. An experimental study also suggests that the LPAC model provides a robust and appealing tradeoff between accuracy and computational performance for solving the ROP.     

Designed damping controller for SSSC to improve stability of a hybrid offshore wind farms considering time delay

This paper presents the stability improvement results of hybrid doubly fed induction generator (DFIG)-based and permanent magnet generator (PMG)-based offshore wind farms (OWFs) using a static synchronous series compensator (SSSC). An adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) controller of the proposed SSSC is designed to render adequate damping characteristics to the studied system. A frequency-domain approach based on a linearized system model using eigenvalue technique analysis is performed. A time-domain scheme based on a nonlinear system model subject to a three-phase short circuit fault at infinite bus with variations in the signal transmission delays has also been investigated to compare the damping of the studied system in cases of with and without controller. The simulation results with MATLAB/SIMULINK toolbox have been presented. It can be concluded from the simulation results that the proposed SSSC joined with the designed ANFIS damping controller can offer adequate damping performance to the studied hybrid DFIG-based and PMG-based OWFs under severe disturbance.     

关于新疆热电厂职业危害分析与讨论

对比不同热电厂企业工人接触职业危害因素情况,分析原因,为在建或已建热电厂提供职业危害因素预防措施,降低企业由于设计、施工或管理方面原因造成后期运行过程中职业危害接触超标情况的发生。根据我室历年对新疆地区热电厂职业危害因素检测结果与评价报告的比较,找出不同热电厂职业病危害因素的共性及异性,分析不同设备、工艺及管理方式不同所造成职业危害因素检测结果的差异及原因。建议优化厂区工艺及土建设计;优化设备选型及原料选择运用现代化的管理手段,加强职业卫生管理体系宣贯的有效运作。     

压裂水平井产能预测方法研究进展

水平井压裂技术在低渗透及非常规储层中得到了广泛应用,压裂后水平井的产能预测关系到油田开发方案的制定,因此,国内外学者对压后渗流模型的建立和求解方法做出了不懈的努力。本文详细回顾了国内外学者所建压裂水平井产能预测模型及求解方法,指出了不同模型和求解方法的优缺点,并展望了压裂水平井产能模型的发展方向。     

基于梯度提升决策树的车轮轮缘厚度磨耗预测

轮对在列车走行过程中起着导向、承受以及传递载荷的作用，其踏面及轮缘磨耗对地铁列车运行安全性和钢轨的寿命都将产生重要影响。根据地铁列车车轮磨耗机理，分析车轮尺寸数据特点，针对轮缘厚度这一型面参数，基于梯度提升决策树算法构建轮缘厚度磨耗预测模型。在该模型的基础上，任意选取某轮对数据进行验证分析，结果表明：基于梯度提升决策树的轮对磨耗预测模型具有较好的预测精度，可预测出1~6个月的轮缘厚度变化趋势范围，预测时间范围较长，可为地铁维保部门对轮对的维修方式由状态修转为预防修提供指导性建议。