考虑条件风险价值的虚拟电厂多电源容量优化配置模型

虚拟电厂中风、光等可再生能源出力及市场电价的不确定性会导致其收益具有一定的风险性。合理配置虚拟电厂中风电、光伏、储能以及常规机组的容量,能够降低系统成本,使投资者的利益最大化。以投资和运行成本最小为优化目标,采用条件风险价值作为风险量度的指标,建立了一种基于投资组合理论中计及风险量度的虚拟电厂容量优化配置模型。在此基础上,探讨风险偏好对规划虚拟电厂多电源容量配置的影响,以及环境成本、自然资源及负荷之间的相关性对配置结果的影响。以美国德克萨斯州某地区附近的风、光资源,电价及负荷数据为实例,采用场景技术模拟不确定性。算例结果表明了该模型的正确性,可为不同风险偏好的投资商在规划建设虚拟电厂时面对多电源容量配置问题提供定量依据。     

NIST 0:45 reflectometer

The NIST 0:45 reflectometer measures the spectral reflectance factor at an influx angle of 0° and an efflux angle of 45° of colored, nonfluorescent specimens at room temperature, with widths ranging from 3 to 10 cm and heights from 3 to 20 cm and with an uncertainty of less than 0.5 in color difference units. Published in 2008 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Col Res Appl, 33, 94–99, 2008     

A suitable computational strategy for the parametric analysis of problems with multiple contact

The aim of the present work is to develop an application of the LArge Time INcrement (LATIN) approach for the parametric analysis of static problems with multiple contacts. The methodology adopted was originally introduced to solve viscoplastic and large‐transformation problems. Here, the applications concern elastic, quasi‐static structural assemblies with local non‐linearities such as unilateral contact with friction. Our approach is based on a decomposition of the assembly into substructures and interfaces. The interfaces play the vital role of enabling the local non‐linearities, such as contact and friction, to be modelled easily and accurately. The problem on each substructure is solved by the finite element method and an iterative scheme based on the LATIN method is used for the global resolution. More specifically, the objective is to calculate a large number of design configurations. Each design configuration corresponds to a set of values of all the variable parameters (friction coefficients, prestress) which are introduced into the mechanical analysis. A full computation is needed for each set of parameters. Here we propose, as an alternative to carrying out these full computations, to use the capability of the LATIN method to re‐use the solution to a given problem (for one set of parameters) in order to solve similar problems (for the other sets of parameters). Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

混合不确定性系统的鲁棒镇定及性能设计

采用双回路控制方法讨论具有混合不确定性系统的鲁棒镇定及性能设计问题，其内环控制器可改善对象特性，从而使整个双回路闭环系统具有鲁棒稳定性．     

Nonlinear H∞ disturbance attenuation for robots with flexible joints

The tracking problem is considered for robots having flexible joints. We propose a state feedback control algorithm which guarantees arbitrary attenuation on the outputs of the effects of time-varying disturbances as well as of parameter uncertainties. Only a lower bound on the values of the elastic constants is required to be known.     

The Effect of Uncertainties in the Kuhn-Mark-Houwink-Sakurada Constants on the Quantitative Analysis by Gel Permeation Chromatography

The effect of uncertainties in Kuhn-Mark-Houwink-Sakurada (KMHS) constants on weight average and number average molecular weights and molecular weight distributions of some poly(ethyl methacrylate) samples have been investigated. Parameters were computed by the Weiss and Cohn-Ginsberg method. Whereas errors introduced in M_w, M_n and HI values due to uncertainty in the K value are insignificant, uncertainties in the KMHS exponent present a serious problem. Deviations of ± 3% around a particular a value cause a ± 20% error in M_w and ± 15% error in M_n, values. The effect of deviations in the KMHS exponent on the HI values is dependent on the polydisperity of the sample investigated.     

Seismic performance assessment of steel moment frames with generic Locally Reinforced connections

Seismic performance of Steel Moment-Resisting Frames (SMRFs) with generic Locally-Reinforced (LR) connections has been investigated incorporating both earthquake-induced and modeling uncertainties. The LR connections were numerically modeled following the suggestions made by previous researches and were used to numerically model three buildings with various heights which were designed regarding the specifications of current standards. For reflecting the record-to-record (RTR) variability, the Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) procedure was utilized within the Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) methodology. In this regard, the structures’ performance in a multitude of structural response levels was probabilistically assessed in “considering” and “neglecting” conditions of modeling uncertainties. For performing the modeling uncertainty analysis, a number of modeling parameters that best reflected the structures’ variability due to lack of knowledge were selected as random variables. Perturbing the modeling variables from their median values, a set of sensitivity IDAs were performed and a polynomial response surface was established. Incorporation of the response surface in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulation led, finally, to a fully probabilistic performance evaluation of the studied structures in varied structural response levels. The effect of modeling uncertainties in altering the predicted performances was found to be insignificant in the range of buildings and structural elements studied in this article.     

Risk analysis: Casing-while-Drilling (CwD) and modeling approach

In today's volatile economy and uncertain drilling environment, managers are encouraged to reduce well cost and time and have implemented Casing-while-Drilling (CwD) to improve operational excellence. Risk analysis is another valid tool that can be used to improve drilling operations. This paper discusses CwD as a new technology and how its benefits can be strengthened by including risk analysis as a complementary technique. A modeling approach is presented to demonstrate how risk analysis can be applied to CwD programs and to discuss the main concerns a well planner must address to achieve a successful drilling program. The integration of both CwD and risk analysis will add value to the overall excellence of the well operation. Very little work has been done on this integration, and the hope is that this approach will be a standard practice in the future.     

考虑地基岩土参数不确定性的核电厂结构随机地震反应分析

在考虑土-结构相互作用(SSI)效应的情况下,引入随机地震反应分析方法,探讨地基岩土参数的不确定性对核电厂地震响应的影响.基于ANSYS程序,采用常数阻抗法,通过设置边界弹簧和阻尼来考虑地基土的作用,并通过设置弹簧和阻尼参数的不确定性,来模拟岩土动态参数的不确定性.针对某1000MW级压水堆核电站反应堆厂房结构,进行随机地震反应的数值仿真分析,并将随机反应结果与确定论分析结果进行了对比.结果表明,随机分析方法是确定论分析方法的有益补充,二者结合能更合理地反映参数的不确定性对结构地震响应的影响.     

参数不确定切换系统饱和控制器的随机梯度求解方法

针对一类各子系统执行机构均具有饱和特性的参数不确定线性切换系统，首先基于公共李雅普诺夫函数法给出了任意序列下稳定的状态反馈控制器设计方法，而后构造出用于求解饱和控制律的随机梯度算法．该算法依概率可收敛到一组可行解，数值例子表明了该算法的有效性．