Proposal of a semi-probabilistic approach for storage facility design

Storage facilities are key devices in mitigating the urban drainage impact on receiving water bodies, but their design is still affected by high uncertainty. The analytical-probabilistic approach has recently raised interest, because the facility performances are directly related to probability. Starting from statistically independent storm events, distributions of the meteorological variables must be fitted. Rainfall series, recorded in three Italian raingauges, were examined for appraising two main concerns: the choice of proper probability distributions for rainfall volume and the sample sensitivity with respect to the analysis criterion. The analytical derivation of the model is then finally discussed.     

Statistical evaluation on storm sewer design criteria under climate change in Seoul,South Korea

This study conducted statistical analysis under both stationary and non-stationary climate using rainfall data measured in Seoul, South Korea. The 50 year annual maximum rainfall data were analysed with generalised extreme value distribution and Gumbel distribution. Possible rainfall changes were predicted with nonstationary forms of the two distributions, considering time variable location parameters. The current storm sewer design criteria were assessed by reflecting climate change implications and expected lifetime performance. Expected return periods were reduced to 4.67, 8.66, 19.16 and 23.53 years for the current 10 min - 5, 10, 30 and 50 years. The newly suggested design criteria of 5, 10, 30 and 50 yr return period storm events were 5.3, 12, 48 and 107 years for the 10 min duration for a 50 year lifetime expectancy.     

Bacterial contamination due to point and nonpoint source pollution in a rapidly growing urban center in an arid region

The distribution of bacterial contaminants (Escherichia coli and total coliforms) and nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) in a rapidly growing metropolitan area, the Las Vegas Valley, were studied to assess the contributions of point and nonpoint pollution sources under dry weather flow (pre rainfall) and wet weather flow (post rainfall) events. Nonpoint sources emanating from urban centers and septic seepage were found to be a primary source of bacterial contamination in the Las Vegas Wash, a mainstream wash channel where the Las Vegas Valley watershed drains. Contribution of point sources (wastewater treatment plants) to E. coli and total coliforms were found to be negligible. However, data in the Tropicana/Flamingo Wash, a tributary of the Las Vegas Wash, showed high bacterial activities in the wet antecedent rainfall condition as compared to the pre-rain dry antecedent condition suggesting that the rainfall increased bacterial activities.     

考虑降雨入渗的边坡稳定性分析

采用极限平衡分析法,建立了能考虑降雨入渗的饱和—非饱和边坡稳定性分析方法,对降雨条件下边坡稳定性变化规律进行了分析,计算结果表明,抗剪强度参数、边坡初始状态都对边坡稳定性具有明显影响,降雨造成的孔隙水压力变化比自重增大对边坡稳定性的影响更大.     

北京洪水峪泥石流形成条件探讨

洪水峪泥石流、沟内崩塌、不稳定斜坡等不良地质现象发育。该沟内煤矸石、沟道物源丰富,上游汇水面积大,沟道纵坡降较大,在强降雨沟道径流冲刷作用下,极易发生揭底起动而形成泥石流灾害。在雨季,支沟常有少量泥沙、块石冲出,阻塞进山道路,淤塞河道,引起原有坝体损毁,威胁居民生命财产安全。通过对以往资料的综合整理,结合现场调查,对洪水峪泥石流形成的诸多条件进行了分析,以期对该区泥石流的防治与预测起到参考作用。     

Comparison of potential water supply and demand in Taiwan

The authors estimated the potential water supply in Taiwan based on hydrologic and water resource data sets pertaining to 233 rainfall stations, 145 stage stations and 109 reservoirs. The comparison between potential water supply estimates and predicted water demand indicated a slight water shortage, even though Taiwan normally receives a large amount of rainfall. This predicted water shortage likely occurred due to the uneven distribution of rainfall in Taiwan. Taken together, the results of this study demonstrate the importance of conservation of forests and paddy fields for the maintenance of base flow and effective management of reservoirs in Taiwan.     

降雨对浅埋地下水补给的初步探讨

的我国北方平原地区,降雨对地下水补给是地区地下水资源主要补给水源。研究降雨对地下水补给对地区地下水资源评价和合理开发利用地下水有着十分重要的意义。本文根据饱和——非饱和水分运动微分方程和初边值条件模拟浅埋地下水位在降雨入渗补给下有关土壤水和地下水问题。探讨降雨强度对地下水补给的影响;地下水位埋深对降雨补给的影响,以及土壤剖面含水量对降雨补给的影响,最后通过实例模拟蒸发——降雨条件下土壤水和地下水运动问题。     

实时水雨情数据库的二次开发

为了满足防汛决策对实时水雨情信息监视、查询以及预报调度等各种应用的需要，本对“实时水雨情数据库”在使用和维护中遇到的一些问题加以讨论。     

持续降雨条件下岩质边坡暂态水头的计算方法

持续降雨条件下，边坡浅层所形成的暂态水头变化对边坡稳定性具有重要的影响，一直是水工渗流研究领域内的热点和难点。鉴于当前理论上和技术上的困难，提出了根据降雨量及岩体的孔隙度估算边坡浅表中暂态水头大小的新方法，并结合工程实例对高边坡不同降雨情况下的暂态水头进行了计算，计算结果基本合理。从而为工程上边坡暂态水头的计算提供了一种简单的估算方法。     

长江下游水情变化趋势分析

对长江下游水情变化趋势作了分析，指出长江下游地区降雨量时空分布不均匀，6～8月降雨相对集中，极易形成洪涝灾害，长江下游水位从20世纪80年代后期开始，有逐年攀升的趋势。