基于多场景风险分析的含风电互联电网机组组合策略研究

为保证电力系统可靠运行,日前机组组合应考虑电网中不确定性因素所带来的风险。大规模风电并网给电力系统运行引入了更多的不确定性,电网互联一定程度上可削弱风电不确定性对电网运行的影响,但同时也增大了日前机组组合问题的复杂度。为了在有限的计算时间内获取计及风险的可行的机组组合方案,需要筛选典型场景来衡量电网运行风险。在风电、负荷预测误差的基础上设置了互联电网机组、联络线强迫停运场景集,构建了互联电网弃风电量期望（expected wind power curtailed,EWPC）和电量不足期望（expected energy not supplied,EENS）风险量化指标,并将其以罚函数的形式引入目标函数,建立了计及多场景运行风险的多区域互联电网安全约束机组组合模型,经两区域12节点系统验证了机组组合策略的正确性和有效性。     

基于役龄回退分析的电力设备检修决策方法研究

针对检修决策中难以兼顾成本和长期效益的问题,提出了一种基于设备役龄回退分析的预测性检修决策方法。首先,基于设备现况计算检修前的故障率。其次,基于设备役龄回退分析方法预测检修后的故障率。再次,依据设备检修前后的故障率,分别计算检修前后的全生命周期成本变化量和检修方式的费效比。最后,分别按可靠性优先、经济性优先和费效比优先的原则遴选最佳检修策略。实例效果表明,本文算法所得检修策略可兼顾成本和长期效益的矛盾,显著降低设备运行风险,提高电网长期效益。     

基于目标级联技术的含风电互联电网机组组合策略

针对含风电互联电网日前安全约束机组组合的规模大、约束复杂、求解困难等问题,提出基于目标级联分析技术的分散协调优化策略。将问题分解为负责区域间边界节点电压相角协调的上层优化问题和以并行方式独立优化各区域发电计划的下层优化问题。下层优化以弃风电量期望和电量不足期望,量化各区域内风电、负荷预测误差,以及常规机组强迫停运等系统运行不确定性所带来的风险,并以罚函数的形式引入目标函数,以综合优化系统可靠性与经济性。2区域12节点系统和IEEE RTS96三区域互联系统算例仿真验证所建模型和算法的有效性。     

A probabilistic risk-based approach for spinning reserve provision using day-ahead demand response program

Spinning Reserve is one of the ancillary services which is essential to satisfy system security constraints when the power system faces with a contingency. In this paper, Day Ahead Demand Response Program as one of the incentive-based Demand Response programs is implemented as a source of spinning reserve. In this regard, certain number of demands are selected according to a sensitivity analysis, and simulated as virtual generation units. The reserve market is cleared for Spinning Reserve allocation considering a probabilistic technique. A comparison is performed between the absence and existence of Day Ahead Demand Response Program from both economical and reliability viewpoints. Numerical studies based on IEEE 57 bus test system is conducted for evaluation of the proposed method.     

A tradeoff between unit capacity and average production cost in spinning reserve optimization

In power systems the spinning reserve (SR) amount can be determined by deterministic or probabilistic techniques. Probabilistic techniques draw more attention since they can consider the economics and the stochastic nature of system behavior and component failures. In probabilistic techniques, the tradeoff between cost and reliability directly affects the SR deployment and it has been extensively analyzed. However, there is another tradeoff which reflects the compromise between the unit capacity and average production cost in the SR optimization problem. This tradeoff impacts the solution accuracy to a certain extent and influences the complexity of the model, and it has not been explicitly analyzed before. In this paper, a new SR optimization method is proposed in which the tradeoff between unit capacity and average production cost is well respected. The proposed method strikes a good balance between solution accuracy and computation efficiency and can obtain better results within a desirable run time compared with those of the previous methods. Besides, the proposed method can also be used to improve the solution of the reserve constrained unit commitment problem. It can lower the total cost by just redistributing the MW dispatch even when the SSR is fixed. The efficiency and validity of the proposed method are verified using the IEEE reliability test system.     

兼顾供电可靠性和LCC的变电站主设备检修策略优化方法

提出了一种能够同时兼顾变电站供电可靠性和设备全寿命周期成本(LCC)的设备检修决策优化方法。该方法选择变电站中的待检变压器和断路器,利用健康指数(HI)和役龄回退因子分别计算待检设备检修前后的故障率;通过变电站的预想事故分析和负荷削减状态的枚举,计算设备检修前后变电站电量不足期望(EENS)和设备LCC的变化量;最后,分别给出以可靠性优先、经济性优先和费效比优先作为评价指标的优化检修策略。某220kV变电站的检修决策实例表明,该方法能够综合考虑变电站的供电可靠性和设备的LCC,制定合理有效的检修策略。在有效降低变电站供电风险的前提下提高设备检修效率,减小检修维护成本。     

基于模拟法下EENS值的系统可靠性裕度分析

随着电网向高压、远距离、大容量发展,对电网安全性要求日益显著,传统的N-1准则下可靠性计算已不能完全满足可靠性评估的要求.蒙特卡洛算法是一种概率随机抽样方法,利用该方法模拟系统状态,建立了参考状态序列,设计新的状态,并同参考状态比较,更加全面地反映系统压力和可靠性裕度,并利用期望缺供电量EENS作为可靠性指标来对系统的可靠性进行分析.     

基于模拟法下EENS值的系统可靠性裕度分析

随着电网向高压、远距离、大容量发展,对电网安全性要求日益显著,传统的N-1准则下可靠性计算已不能完全满足可靠性评估的要求。蒙特卡洛算法是一种概率随机抽样方法,利用该方法模拟系统状态,建立了参考状态序列,设计新的状态,并同参考状态比较,更加全面地反映系统压力和可靠性裕度,并利用期望缺供电量EENS作为可靠性指标来对系统的可靠性进行分析。     

电力市场下基于分层可靠性服务的可靠性电价体系研究

利用基于电量不足期望值贡献系数的方法,并结合可靠性灵敏度分析,将事故备用费用分摊到发电侧和输电侧,并形成了相应的发电侧和输电侧可靠性电价。利用模糊聚类分析方法,根据用户的可靠性服务综合指标要求,将系统中的用户划分为几个层次类别,对每层用户进行归一化处理并用一个虚拟用户来代表该层用户的可靠性服务要求,然后根据各层虚拟用户...     

改进的Manchester连锁故障模型及其应用

本文根据Manchester模型和最优潮流理论,提出了一种改进的连锁故障模型。该模型通过快动态和慢动态两个时间尺度对系统连锁故障过程进行描述,并通过电量不足期望值对系统的停电风险进行评估。算例依据我国一区域电网,研究了系统负载率和关键线路的故障率对电网停电风险的影响以及临界负荷情况下电网的幂律特性。本研究对系统规划和运行人员分析连锁故障过程和采取有效措施降低系统停电风险提供了一定的决策参考。