An expectation operator for belief functions in the Dempster–Shafer theory*

ABSTRACT

The main contribution of this paper is a new definition of expected value of belief functions in the Dempster–Shafer (D–S) theory of evidence. Our definition shares many of the properties of the expectation operator in probability theory. Also, for Bayesian belief functions, our definition provides the same expected value as the probabilistic expectation operator. A traditional method of computing expected of real-valued functions is to first transform a D–S belief function to a corresponding probability mass function, and then use the expectation operator for probability mass functions. Transforming a belief function to a probability function involves loss of information. Our expectation operator works directly with D–S belief functions. Another definition is using Choquet integration, which assumes belief functions are credal sets, i.e. convex sets of probability mass functions. Credal sets semantics are incompatible with Dempster's combination rule, the center-piece of the D–S theory. In general, our definition provides different expected values than, e.g. if we use probabilistic expectation using the pignistic transform or the plausibility transform of a belief function. Using our definition of expectation, we provide new definitions of variance, covariance, correlation, and other higher moments and describe their properties.     

基于模糊谱聚类的不确定蛋白质相互作用网络功能模块挖掘

针对谱聚类融合模糊C-means（FCM）聚类的蛋白质相互作用（PPI）网络功能模块挖掘方法准确率不高、执行效率较低和易受假阳性影响的问题，提出一种基于模糊谱聚类的不确定PPI网络功能模块挖掘（FSC-FM）方法。首先，构建一个不确定PPI网络模型，使用边聚集系数给每一条蛋白质交互作用赋予一个存在概率测度，克服假阳性对实验结果的影响；第二，利用基于边聚集系数流行距离（FEC）策略改进谱聚类中的相似度计算，解决谱聚类算法对尺度参数敏感的问题，进而利用谱聚类算法对不确定PPI网络数据进行预处理，降低数据的维数，提高聚类的准确率；第三，设计基于密度的概率中心选取策略（DPCS）解决模糊C-means算法对初始聚类中心和聚类数目敏感的问题，并对预处理后的PPI数据进行FCM聚类，提高聚类的执行效率以及灵敏度；最后，采用改进的边期望稠密度（EED）对挖掘出的蛋白质功能模块进行过滤。在酵母菌DIP数据集上运行各个算法可知，FSC-FM与基于不确定图模型的检测蛋白质复合物（DCU）算法相比，F-measure值提高了27.92%，执行效率提高了27.92%；与在动态蛋白质相互作用网络中识别复合物的方法（CDUN）、演化算法（EA）、医学基因或蛋白质预测算法（MGPPA）相比也有更高的F-measure值和执行效率。实验结果表明，在不确定PPI网络中，FSC-FM适合用于功能模块的挖掘。     

A side-sensitive synthetic coefficient of variation chart

Control charts for monitoring the coefficient of variation (γ) are useful for processes with an inconsistent mean (μ) and a standard deviation (σ) which changes with μ, by monitoring the consistency in the ratio σ over μ. The synthetic-γ chart is one of the charts proposed to monitor γ, and its attractiveness lie in waiting until a second point to fall outside the control limits before a decision is made. However, existing synthetic-γ charts do not differentiate between the points falling outside the upper control limit (UCL) and lower control limit (LCL). Hence, this paper proposes a side-sensitive synthetic-γ chart, where successive nonconforming samples must either fall above the UCL or below the LCL. Formulae to compute the average run length (ARL), the standard deviation of the run length (SDRL) and expected average run length (EARL) are derived using the Markov chain approach, and the algorithms to obtain the optimal charting parameters are proposed. Subsequently, the optimal charting parameters, ARL, SDRL and EARL values for various numerical examples are shown. Comparisons show that the side-sensitive synthetic-γ chart consistently outperforms the existing synthetic-γ chart, especially for small shifts. The proposed chart also consistently outperforms the Shewhart-γ chart, while showing comparable or better performance than the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) chart for most shift sizes, except for very small shifts. Finally, this paper shows the implementation of the proposed chart on an industrial example.     

From utility disconnection to universal access

By some estimates, 31% of Americans face some sort of ‘energy insecurity,’ but the full extent of the issue and the magnitude of its effect are often difficult to quantify. This case study examines disconnection policies primarily in Minnesota and attempts to extrapolate lessons learned for other states and the nation as a whole. The case study concludes with a discussion about the relevance of U.S. universal access to the utility shut-off challenge.     

A review of root,tuber and banana crops in developing countries: past,present and future

For many of the developing world's poorest farmers and food-insecure people, roots, tubers, bananas and plantain crops (RTBs) serve as a critical source of food, nutrition and cash income. RTBs have been particularly important in areas where local agri-food systems are under stress. Under such circumstances, growers, processors and traders often see opportunities to improve food security or increase their incomes with those crops due to shifting tastes and preferences for food and non-food products. Since the early 1990s, cassava output surged in sub-Saharan Africa, while potato production expanded rapidly in Asia. RTBs are consumed by over three billion people in developing countries with a market value of US$ 339 billion. This paper analyses the major changes in production, utilisation and trade of RTBs over the last six decades, assesses estimates of their future trajectory and offers recommendations so that they might achieve their full potential.     

Economic growth through entrepreneurship: Determinants of self-employed income across regional economies

Knowledge of the determinants of self-employment income is critical to entrepreneurial development strategies if the development goal is to increase incomes not just employment. Using American Community Survey data, unconditional quantile regression is used to investigate differences in the relationship between entrepreneurial income and an array of individual, industry, and regional characteristics across the self-employment income distribution. Personal attributes, such as education, race, age, and gender, both explain differences in self-employment income and vary in importance across the income distribution. Regional agglomerative effects are significantly positive and stronger at the upper end of the self-employed income distribution.     

带缓冲区且产品保修的设备预防性维护建模

论文考虑的是一个完美的生产系统,即生产系统所生产的产品均没有质量问题。为提高设备的可靠性,调整市场需求,提出带缓冲区的设备预防性维护优化建模方法。已经出售的产品,顾客在使用过程中可能会出现故障,基于这个情况,在保修期内会予以免费维修。找出生产系统的运行时间(T)和缓冲区库存量(S),以此为决策变量建立期望成本模型。在此基础上,构造求解最优策略的算法。通过数值算例演示了该模型,通过灵敏度分析确定了最优策略和相关参数的关系。     

带延迟索赔和随机收入的离散风险模型的Gerber-Shiu分析（英）

破产理论是保险数学中的重要问题，它可以为保险公司决策者提供一个非常有用的早期风险预警手段．本文研究了一个带潜在延迟索赔和随机保费收入的复合二项风险模型．利用矩母函数的技巧，得到了 Gerber-Shiu 期望折罚函数的递推公式．特别地，还得到了贴现因子为 1 的特殊情形下的 Gerber-Shiu 期望折罚函数的解析表达式．最后还得到了实际应用中的一些重要的破产特征量，包括破产概率，破产时赤字的密度函数，破产前盈余与破产时赤字的联合密度函数，以及导致破产的索赔密度函数等．     

考虑设备劣化及返工的质量批量模型研究

为了得到最大质量批量，研究了返工成本边际效应下的期望利润值计算方法，将生产过程分为两个阶段：无需返工和需要返工的连续加工。给出了质量控制策略下批量计算公式以及考虑边际成本下的最大利润所对应的质量批量。采用蒙特卡洛仿真和Design Expert 8.0.6软件拟合，通过数字实验，对比了返工成本与未考虑返工成本情况下的期望利润值。研究显示，考虑返工成本边际效应下的质量批量大于一般的经济批量，所得到期望利润也最大。     

天然气储量价值评估模型

储量的资产评估和价值评价是矿业权流转、合作开发、上市评估及企业内部管理的必要步骤和前提。本文在成本法计算储量价值的基础上,首次提出了天然气的储量价值评估模型(超额收益综合模型)。模型以获得油气储量所需花费的社会平均勘探成本作为确定储量的基本价格,在社会平均勘探成本的基础上附加一定的平均利润和由于开采条件不同造成的级差价格,以此作为油气储量的价格。本文建立的天然气储量价值评估模型,在长庆油田和川西气田得到了实际的应用,初步印证了模型的先进性、实用性。