Deterministic and probabilistic ship pitch prediction using a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing,reinforcement learning and improved QRNN

The deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship motion is important for safe navigation and stable real-time operational control of ships at sea. However, the volatility and randomness of ship motion, the non-adaptive nature of single predictors and the poor coverage of quantile regression pose serious challenges to uncertainty prediction, making research in this field limited. In this paper, a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing, reinforcement learning and improved quantile regression neural network (QRNN) is proposed to explore the deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship pitch motion. To validate the performance of the proposed multi-predictor integrated prediction model, an experimental study is conducted with three sets of actual ship longitudinal motions during sea trials in the South China Sea. The experimental results indicate that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the proposed model of deterministic prediction are 0.0254°, 0.0359°, and 0.0188°, respectively. Taking series #2 as an example, the prediction interval coverage probabilities (PICPs) of the proposed model of probability predictions at 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels (CLs) are 0.9400, 0.9800, and 1.0000, respectively. This study signifies that the proposed model can provide trusted deterministic predictions and can effectively quantify the uncertainty of ship pitch motion, which has the potential to provide practical support for ship early warning systems.     

基于VMD和BSA-KELM的高陡边坡位移预测模型研究

边坡位移的时间序列曲线存在复杂的非线性特性,传统的预测模型精度不足以满足预测要求。为此提出了基于变分模态分解的鸟群优化-核极限学习机的预测模型,并用于河北省某水泥厂的边坡位移预测。该方法首先采用VMD把边坡位移序列分解为一系列的有限带宽的子序列,再对各子序列分别采用相空间重构并用核极限学习机预测,采用鸟群算法优化相空间重构的嵌入维度和KELM中惩罚系数和核参数三个数值,以取得最优预测模型。最后将各个子序列预测值叠加,得到边坡位移的最终预测值。结果表明：和KELM、BSA-KELM、EEMD-BSA-KELM模型相比,基于VMD的BSA-KELM预测精度更高,为边坡位移的预测提供一种有效的方法。     

Weighted regularized extreme learning machine to model the discharge coefficient of side slots

In the current research, a modern learning machine algorithm named “Weighted Regularized Extreme Learning Machine (WRELM)" is implemented for the first time for the simulation of the coefficient of discharge of side slots. For this purpose, an effective variable on the coefficient of discharge of side slots is firstly introduced, then five distinctive WRELM models are produced by it for the estimation of the coefficient. In the next stage, a database is created for verification of WRELM results. it should be mentioned that 70% of the data are utilized for training the WRELM models, while the rest (i.e. 30%) for testing them. After that, the optimal number of hidden layer neurons as well as the best activation function of the WRELM algorithm are chosen. In addition, the best regularization parameter and also the weight function of the WRELM are achieved. By conducting a sensitivity analysis, the most effective variable for the simulation of the coefficient of discharge along with the WRELM superior model is introduced. The WRELM superior model estimates values of the coefficient of discharge with the maximum exactness and the highest correlation. For instance, the estimations of the correlation coefficient and scatter index for this model are computed to be 0.930 and 0.051, respectively. The sensitivity analysis shows that the ratio of the side slot crest height to its length and the Froude number should be considered as the most important input variables. A comparison between the WRELM with the ELM displays that the former works much better. Furthermore, an uncertainty analysis is executed for both models. Eventually, an equation is suggested for the estimation of the coefficient of discharge and a partial derivative sensitivity analysis is performed on it.     

Vibration analysis and identification of breathing cracks in beams subjected to single or multiple moving mass using online sequential extreme learning machine

In this paper, a novel approach was presented to vibration analysis and identification of breathing cracks in Timoshenko beam under single or multiple moving mass. Dynamic strain energies (DSEs) and translational accelerations in beam structures under moving mass were used as forward problem and application of an emergent learning algorithm called the online sequential extreme learning machine algorithm as inverse problem to predict crack depths and locations. To demonstrate the potential of the proposed vibration analysis over existing ones, two validation studies have been done. To evaluate the proposed method to identify breathing cracks, two examples, namely, clamped–clamped beam and two span continuous beams have been studied. Also, the effect of the discrepancy in stiffness between the finite-element model and the actual tested dynamic system has been investigated. Another examination has been performed in which moving mass with different speeds are utilized. Also, the effect of multi mass passing through the beam has been studied. The obtained results indicated that the proposed method could identify the breathing cracks existence and severity in the beam under moving mass using DSE and accelerations, which may be noisy or noise free.     

基于PSO-ELM模型的潜油柱塞泵冲次优化方法

为改进油井后期泵效低下、能耗高等缺陷，提出了一种基于PSO-ELM模型的潜油柱塞泵冲次优化方法.采用粒子群（PSO）算法与极限学习机（ELM）相结合的方式来实现动液面软测量建模；根据动液面及潜油柱塞泵工作电流变化，以油井运行经济性最优为目的建立目标函数得到潜油柱塞泵冲次，解决了在油井生产时不能准确调节抽油机冲次问题；最后以目标函数关系建立模糊控制器模型，根据输入参数调整潜油柱塞泵冲次.实验结果表明，建立的软测量模型预测动液面精度高，模糊控制器能够更加合理地调整抽油机冲次，最终达到智能调整冲次大小、提高油井采油率及节能的目的.     

基于多时间尺度和多源储能的综合能源系统能量协调优化调度

考虑源荷不确定性及储能设备配置对综合能源系统IES(integrated energy system)优化调度的影响,提出基于多时间尺度和多源储能的IES能量协调优化调度策略。该策略以系统运行经济最优、滚动控制时域内购能成本与储能惩罚成本之和最低以及设备输出功率调整量最小为目标,分别建立了日前、日内滚动和实时反馈3个时间尺度的优化调度模型。在日前考虑多种储能模式对IES经济性的影响;日内利用场景分析法描述滚动预测的不确定性来提高系统经济运行稳定性;再基于模型预测控制方法,构建日内与实时的反馈闭环优化,平抑由预测误差导致的系统功率波动。仿真结果表明:多源储能模式有助于提高IES的经济性;多时间尺度调度既可以保证IES运行的经济性,又能有效降低不确定性对系统实际运行的影响,减轻电网平抑功率波动负担。     

基于ASOS-ELM的湿式球磨机负荷软测量方法

针对湿式球磨机在磨矿过程中内部负荷靠专家经验难以准确预测的问题,提出一种基于改进的共生生物搜索(ameliorated symbiotic organisms search,简称ASOS)-极限学习机(extreme learning machine,简称ELM)的磨机负荷软测量方法。首先,利用ELM算法建立磨机负荷软测量模型,运用ASOS算法优化软测量模型的隐含层参数;其次,以筒体振动与振声信号的特征信息构建磨机负荷特征向量,并将其作为软测量模型的输入,将磨机负荷参数作为输出;最后,通过磨矿负荷检测实验和对比分析表明,磨机负荷软测量模型的负荷参数预测准确率较高,泛化能力较强,为磨机磨矿效率的提高及控制优化提供了有益的指导。     

A Novel Method of Heart Failure Prediction Based on DPCNNXGBOOST Model

The occurrence of perioperative heart failure will affect the quality of medical services and threaten the safety of patients. Existing methods depend on the judgment of doctors, the results are affected by many factors such as doctors’ knowledge and experience. The accuracy is difficult to guarantee and has a serious lag. In this paper, a mixture prediction model is proposed for perioperative adverse events of heart failure, which combined with the advantages of the Deep Pyramid Convolutional Neural Networks (DPCNN) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBOOST). The DPCNN was used to automatically extract features from patient’s diagnostic texts, and the text features were integrated with the preoperative examination and intraoperative monitoring values of patients, then the XGBOOST algorithm was used to construct the prediction model of heart failure. An experimental comparison was conducted on the model based on the data of patients with heart failure in southwest hospital from 2014 to 2018. The results showed that the DPCNN-XGBOOST model improved the predictive sensitivity of the model by 3% and 31% compared with the text-based DPCNN Model and the numeric-based XGBOOST Model.     

Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change

Ways of increasing the production of wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop, will need to be found to meet the increasing demand caused by human population growth in the coming decades. This increase must occur despite the decrease in yield gains now being reported in some regions, increased price volatility and the expected increase in the frequency of adverse weather events that can reduce yields. However, if and how the frequency of adverse weather events will change over Europe, the most important wheat-growing area, has not yet been analysed. Here, we show that the accumulated probability of 11 adverse weather events with the potential to significantly reduce yield will increase markedly across all of Europe. We found that by the end of the century, the exposure of the key European wheat-growing areas, where most wheat production is currently concentrated, may increase more than twofold. However, if we consider the entire arable land area of Europe, a greater than threefold increase in risk was predicted. Therefore, shifting wheat production to new producing regions to reduce the risk might not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key wheat-growing areas increases even more. Furthermore, we found a marked increase in wheat exposure to high temperatures, severe droughts and field inaccessibility compared with other types of adverse events. Our results also showed the limitations of some of the presently debated adaptation options and demonstrated the need for development of region-specific strategies. Other regions of the world could be affected by adverse weather events in the future in a way different from that considered here for Europe. This observation emphasizes the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major wheat regions.