基于多时间尺度和多源储能的综合能源系统能量协调优化调度

考虑源荷不确定性及储能设备配置对综合能源系统IES(integrated energy system)优化调度的影响,提出基于多时间尺度和多源储能的IES能量协调优化调度策略。该策略以系统运行经济最优、滚动控制时域内购能成本与储能惩罚成本之和最低以及设备输出功率调整量最小为目标,分别建立了日前、日内滚动和实时反馈3个时间尺度的优化调度模型。在日前考虑多种储能模式对IES经济性的影响;日内利用场景分析法描述滚动预测的不确定性来提高系统经济运行稳定性;再基于模型预测控制方法,构建日内与实时的反馈闭环优化,平抑由预测误差导致的系统功率波动。仿真结果表明:多源储能模式有助于提高IES的经济性;多时间尺度调度既可以保证IES运行的经济性,又能有效降低不确定性对系统实际运行的影响,减轻电网平抑功率波动负担。     

A risk-based methodology for the optimal placement of hazardous gas detectors

Hazardous gas detection systems play an important role in preventing catastrophic gas-related accidents in process industries. Even though effective detection technology currently exists for hazardous gas releases and a majority of process installations have a large number of sensitive detectors in place, the actual operating performance of gas detection systems still does not meet the expected requirements. In this paper, a risk-based methodology is proposed to optimize the placement of hazardous gas detectors. The methodology includes three main steps, namely, the establishment of representative leak scenarios, computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-based gas dispersion modeling, and the establishment of an optimized solution. Based on the combination of gas leak probability and joint distribution probability of wind velocity and wind direction, a quantitative filtering approach is presented to select representative leak scenarios from all potential scenarios. The commercial code ANSYS-FLUENT is used to estimate the consequence of hazardous gas dispersions under various leak and environmental conditions. A stochastic mixed-integer linear programming formulation with the objective of minimizing the total leak risk across all representative leak scenarios is proposed, and the greedy dropping heuristic algorithm (GDHA) is used to solve the optimization model. Finally, a practical application of the methodology is performed to validate its effectiveness for the optimal design of a gas detector system in a high-sulfur natural gas purification plant in Chongqing, China. The results show that an appropriate number of gas detectors with optimal cost-effectiveness can be obtained, and the total leak risk across all potential scenarios can be substantially reduced. This methodology provides an effective approach to guide the optimal placement of point-type gas detection systems involved with either single or mixed gas releases.     

Crack initiation and propagation in braided SiC/SiC composite tubes: Effect of braiding angle

Crack initiation and propagation in three braided SiC/SiC composite tubes with different braiding angles are investigated by in situ tensile tests with synchrotron micro-computed tomography. Crack networks are precisely detected after an image subtraction procedure based on Digital Volume Correlation. FFT based simulations are performed on the full-resolution 3D images to assess elastic stress/strain fields. Quantitative measurements of the crack geometries are performed using a novel method based on grey levels. The results show that braiding angle has no obvious effect on the location of crack onsets (initiation always occurs at tow interfaces), whereas it significantly affects the paths of crack propagation. This work provides an explicit demonstration of the crack propagation scenarios with respect to the mesoscopic fibre architectures.     

基于改进FCM聚类算法的清洁能源典型场景构建

电力系统的中长期规划和经济运行优化需要考虑能够反映清洁能源历史数据特征的典型场景，提出了一种基于改进FCM 聚类算法的清洁能源典型场景构建方法，并将其应用于含清洁能源的电力系统运行成本优化中。以浙江省某地区电网为例，在电力系统运行成本优化领域对比基于改进FCM 聚类算法与基于全年时序法、典型日法的场景构建方法的性能优劣。研究结果表明，提出的改进聚类算法的清洁能源典型场景构建方法兼具计算精度与效率，具有实际应用价值。     

基于网格化的移动通信网络资源与业务发展评估分析

目前移动通信网络建设全面转向5G，4G网络建设投资大幅缩减。为保障4G网络投资效益长远、后续资本开支合理，对现阶段4G网络资源与当地市场发展情况进行合理、精准评估变得尤为重要。通过对特定区域内网络资源与业务发展匹配情况分析，结合市场发展需求，精准定位该区域网络能力提升与业务发展方向的重点。助力打造“技术先进、运营高效、质量领先”的高品质智慧精品网。进而强化“网随业动、业随网进”，驱动“网络优势”转化为“市场优势”。     

分布式多元随机动态场景生成及快速精准场景降维算法

高比例新能源及多源耦合是电力系统发展的重要特征,这也为系统稳定经济运行提出了新挑战。该文以园区型多能系统为对象,研究了分布式多元随机动态场景分析,从多时空角度有效量化不确定因素给系统造成的影响,可为系统灵活重构、多维度协同运行与决策提供有力模型与场景支撑。首先由预测误差驱动拟合多元功率预测误差概率分布,全面反映随机功率出力信息,提高模型泛化性;以时序相关范围参数为数据驱动关联变量,高效动态控制波动强度;最终场景生成利用逆变换映射思想保证置信度。然后针对典型场景提取,提出一种综合递归聚类思想的多段嵌套削减算法,结合改进Wasserstein距离指标,兼具准确、时效、稳定方面的优势。最后由对比实验论证该方法的前沿有效性。     

Job accessibility impacts of intensive and multiple land-use scenarios for the Netherlands’ Randstad Area

This paper examines job accessibility impacts of intensive and multiple land-use scenarios in the Netherlands’ Randstad Area for the period 1996–2030. The scenarios involve a heavy increase in the density and diversity of activities around railway stations. Accessibility impacts are examined using location-based accessibility measures and utility-based accessibility benefit measures within a high-resolution land-use/transport interaction modelling framework, taking into account the regional demand for economic activities and possible market responses. It is concluded that extreme concentrations of economic activities at central urban locations well served by public transport are not to be preferred over less heavy concentrations of economic activities at more locations. Heavy concentrations of new firms may firstly repel existing firms in the neighbourhood and secondly result in decreasing marginal returns of accessibility benefits for public transport users.     

私人部门性质对PPP项目产出绩效监管的影响及其优化建议——基于情境模拟实验研究

现阶段PPP项目产出绩效监管尤为重要。针对私人部门为国有企业和私营企业,通过已构建的PPP项目产出绩效监管框架筛选出实验变量,继而对变量进行情境设计,并进行问卷调查对比分析不同性质私人部门的PPP项目产出绩效监管。最后,为政府部门面对不同性质私人部门类PPP项目产出绩效监管提出三条优化建议。     

基于网格模型的混凝土细观结构数值模拟

基于改进的网格模型,模拟了全级配数值试件在轴向受压下的力学行为。讨论了W e ibu ll分布中的均质度、同一级配不同骨料分布对数值结果的影响。