Influencer-defaulter mutation-based optimization algorithms for predicting electricity prices

Efficient electricity price forecasting plays a significant role in our society. In this paper, a novel influencer-defaulter mutation (IDM) mutation operator has been proposed. The IDM operator has been combined with six well-known optimization algorithms to create mutated optimization algorithms whose performance has been tested on twenty-four standard benchmark functions. Further, the artificial neural network is integrated with mutated optimization algorithms to solve the electricity price prediction problem. The policymakers can identify appropriate variables based on the predicted prices to help future market planning. The statistical results prove the efficacy of the IDM operator on the recent optimization algorithms.     

Probabilistic learning on manifolds (PLoM) with partition

The probabilistic learning on manifolds (PLoM) introduced in 2016 has solved difficult supervised problems for the “small data” limit where the number N of points in the training set is small. Many extensions have since been proposed, making it possible to deal with increasingly complex cases. However, the performance limit has been observed and explained for applications for which N is very small and for which the dimension of the diffusion-map basis is close to N. For these cases, we propose a novel extension based on the introduction of a partition in independent random vectors. We take advantage of this development to present improvements of the PLoM such as a simplified algorithm for constructing the diffusion-map basis and a new mathematical result for quantifying the concentration of the probability measure in terms of a probability upper bound. The analysis of the efficiency of this extension is presented through two applications.     

非常规气藏储层改造体积评价方法研究

为精确描述非常规气藏压裂后的复杂流动特征及定量评价储层改造体积（SRV），利用自主研发的缝网重构算法“破裂树生长法”建立压后缝网模型，并以此为基础提出了使用拟稳态流动时特定的压力等值线来确定SRV范围的定量评价方法，最后以长宁201井区为例进行了矿场实例分析。该方法根据微地震监测点的位置，重构出微裂缝网的连通关系。在复杂微裂缝网的基础上建立离散裂缝地质模型并进行生产数值模拟，根据数值模拟结果的压力分布精确划定SRV的范围。利用该方法计算出长宁201井区的SRV体积为0.052 1 km3，以该缝网模型的数值模拟产量预测结果符合实际生产规律，方法实用性较好。     

Predictive environmental hydrogen embrittlement on fracture toughness of commercial ferritic steels with hydrogen-modified fracture strain model

In this work, a practical numerical model with few parameters was proposed for the prediction of environmental hydrogen embrittlement. The proposed method adopts hydrogen enhanced plasticity-based mechanism in a fracture strain model to describe hydrogen embrittlement. Fracture toughness degradation of three commercial steels SA372J70, AISI4130 and X80 in high pressure hydrogen environment were investigated. Firstly, governing equations for hydrogen distribution and material damage evolution was established. Hydrogen enhanced localized flow softening effect was coupled within fracture strain dependency on stress triaxiality. Then, the numerical implementation and identification process of model parameters was described. Model parameters of the investigated steels were determined based on experiment results from literatures. Finally, with the calibrated model, fracture toughness reduction of the steels was predicted in a wide range of hydrogen pressure. The prediction results were compared with experimental results. Reasonable accuracy was reached. The proposed method is an attempt to reach balance between physical accurate prediction and engineering practicality. It is promising to provide a simplified numerical tool for the design and fit for service evaluation of hydrogen storage vessels.     

Experimental study and model predictions on helium release in an enclosure with single or multiple vents

This paper presents experiments performed at Canadian Nuclear Laboratories (CNL) to examine the dispersion behaviour of helium in a polycarbonate enclosure that was representative of a residential parking garage. The purpose was to gain a better understanding of the effect of buoyancy- or wind-driven natural ventilation on hydrogen dispersion behaviour. Although hydrogen dispersion studies have been reported extensively in the literature, gaps still exist in predictive methods for hazard analysis. Helium, a simulant for hydrogen, was injected near the centre of the floor with a flow rate ranging from 5 to 75 standard litres per minute through an upward-facing nozzle, resulting in an injection Richardson number ranging between 10^?1 and 10². The location of the nozzle varied from the bottom of the enclosure to near the ceiling to examine the impact of the nozzle elevation on the development of a stratified layer in the upper region of the enclosure. When the injection nozzle was placed at a sufficiently low elevation, the vertical helium profile always consisted of a homogenous layer at the top overlaying a stratified layer at the bottom. To simulate outdoor environmental conditions, a fan was placed in front of each vent to examine the effect of opposing or assisting wind on the dispersion. The helium transients in the uniform layer predicted with analytical models were in good agreement with the measured transients for most tests. Model improvements are required for adequately predicting transients with primarily stratified profiles or strong opposing wind.     

分布式多元随机动态场景生成及快速精准场景降维算法

高比例新能源及多源耦合是电力系统发展的重要特征,这也为系统稳定经济运行提出了新挑战。该文以园区型多能系统为对象,研究了分布式多元随机动态场景分析,从多时空角度有效量化不确定因素给系统造成的影响,可为系统灵活重构、多维度协同运行与决策提供有力模型与场景支撑。首先由预测误差驱动拟合多元功率预测误差概率分布,全面反映随机功率出力信息,提高模型泛化性;以时序相关范围参数为数据驱动关联变量,高效动态控制波动强度;最终场景生成利用逆变换映射思想保证置信度。然后针对典型场景提取,提出一种综合递归聚类思想的多段嵌套削减算法,结合改进Wasserstein距离指标,兼具准确、时效、稳定方面的优势。最后由对比实验论证该方法的前沿有效性。     

Removing data and using metafounders alleviates biases for all traits in Lacaune dairy sheep predictions

Bias in dairy genetic evaluations, when it exists, has to be understood and properly addressed. The origin of biases is not always clear. We analyzed 40 yr of records from the Lacaune dairy sheep breeding program to evaluate the extent of bias, assess possible corrections, and emit hypotheses on its origin. The data set included 7 traits (milk yield, fat and protein contents, somatic cell score, teat angle, udder cleft, and udder depth) with records from 600,000 to 5 million depending on the trait, ～1,900,000 animals, and ～5,900 genotyped elite artificial insemination rams. For the ～8% animals with missing sire, we fit 25 unknown parent groups. We used the linear regression method to compare “partial” and “whole” predictions of young rams before and after progeny testing, with 7 cut-off points, and we obtained estimates of their bias, (over)dispersion, and accuracy in early proofs. We tried (1) several scenarios as follows: multiple or single trait, the “official” (routine) evaluation, which is a mixture of both single and multiple trait, and “deletion” of data before 1990; and (2) several models as follows: BLUP and single-step genomic (SSG)BLUP with fixed unknown parent groups or metafounders, where, for metafounders, their relationship matrix gamma was estimated using either a model for inbreeding trend, or base allele frequencies estimated by peeling. The estimate of gamma obtained by modeling the inbreeding trend resulted in an estimated increase of inbreeding, based on markers, faster than the pedigree-based one. The estimated genetic trends were similar for most models and scenarios across all traits, but were shrunken when gamma was estimated by peeling. This was due to shrinking of the estimates of metafounders in the latter case. Across scenarios, all traits showed bias, generally as an overestimate of genetic trend for milk yield and an underestimate for the other traits. As for the slope, it showed overdispersion of estimated breeding values for all traits. Using multiple-trait models slightly reduced the overestimate of genetic trend and the overdispersion, as did including genomic information (i.e., SSGBLUP) when the gamma matrix was estimated by the model for inbreeding trend. However, only deletion of historical data before 1990 resulted in elimination of both kind of biases. The SSGBLUP resulted in more accurate early proofs than BLUP for all traits. We considered that a snowball effect of small errors in each genetic evaluation, combined with selection, may have resulted in biased evaluations. Improving statistical methods reduced some bias but not all, and a simple solution for this data set was to remove historical records.     

Liquefaction behavior of fiber-reinforced calcareous sands in unidirectional and multidirectional simple shear tests

A study on the liquefaction resistance of calcareous sands reinforced with polypropylene fibers was reported. Stress-controlled cyclic simple shear tests were conducted on specimens prepared at a relative density of 50%, with and without fiber reinforcements. The liquefaction behavior was investigated by considering the effects of fiber contents ranging from 0% to 1%, fiber lengths varying from 3 mm to 12 mm and loading patterns. The results indicated that increasing fiber content and fiber length resulted in a decrease in the deformation, a reduction in pore pressure accumulation rate, and improved the liquefaction resistance of calcareous sands. Additionally, the risk of soil liquefaction could be significantly reduced when the fiber content was greater than 0.8%. The multidirectional loading had a considerable effect in reducing the liquefaction resistance compared to unidirectional loading. Further, the stiffness degradation of calcareous sands decreased with increasing fiber content and fiber length. The pore pressure generated in the cyclic tests was analyzed and was found to be affected by fiber content. A pore pressure prediction model was proposed to obtain the pore pressure characteristics of fiber-reinforced calcareous sands under various fiber content conditions.     

A novel multi-objective optimization method: Input values effect on responses (IVER)

In this study, a novel multi-objective optimization method based on the best effect of unique input (independent variable) values on responses (dependent variables) was proposed. The proposed method was compared with optimization using Derringer & Suich function that is still the most used. The comparison was made using the response values measured in real experiments and available in the literature. The advantages of the proposed method such as not needing the polynomial model aiming to predict the response values, no parameter selection problem, being able to offer optimum range instead of single optimum value, being suitable for use with existing experimental designs and being simple and interpretable were demonstrated as a result of comparison. It was also suggested how the proposed method will be effective according to experimental designs, and application for the users' application was presented.     

无线电综合测试仪校准装置的研究及其不确定度分析

This calibration device of radio comprehensive tester is studied and established in this paper. It solves the verification and calibration of a large number of general-purpose radio comprehensive testers. The calibration device consists of four calibration sub- systems and calibration software system, including RF generator, audio generator, audio analyzer and RF analyzer. It also researches on the configuration of standard equipment and analyzes the uncertainty of the calibration devices, ensuring accurate and reliable val- ue transfer.