改进Elman神经网络在短期热负荷预测中的应用

热电厂的短期热负荷预测在城市集中供暖中起着至关重要的作用,直接影响热电厂的经济效益和热能利用率。电厂的短期热负荷一般采用神经网络预测模型进行预测,而BP神经网络应用最为广泛。Elman神经网络算法在BP神经网络基础上加入了承接层,作为一步延时算子,实现记忆能力,使系统具备适应时变能力,增强系统全局稳定性。但Elman神经网络算法模型的构造依然需要大量样本的支撑,而且输入层的变量多,导致预测时间依然很长,收敛速度慢。该文在Elman神经网络预测前,进行了相关系数预处理和对样本中异常值的平均化预处理,通过数据归一化运算,使Elman神经网络输入层变量大幅减少。仿真实验表明,改进的Elman神经网络算法使预测模型快速寻优,减少预测时间的同时明显提高预测精度。     

Stochastic analysis of strongly non-linear elastic impact system with Coulomb friction excited by white noise

The stochastic response of frictionally damped strongly non-linear elastic impact oscillator subjected to white noise excitation and its stochastic bifurcation are considered. By the stochastic averaging method based on generalized harmonic function, one can obtain the stationary probability density function of this system. The effects of system parameters on the responses are investigated and the analytical results were verified by comparing with numerical results from Monte Carlo simulations. Stochastic bifurcations are discussed through a qualitative change of the stationary probability distribution, which indicates that the coefficient of friction, damping constant of the elastic impact force respectively, can be treated as bifurcation parameters.     

Multicriteria decision-making using Archimedean aggregation operators in Pythagorean hesitant fuzzy environment

In multicriteria decision-making (MCDM), the existing aggregation operators are mostly based on algebraic t-conorm and t-norm. But, Archimedean t-conorms and t-norms are the generalized forms of t-conorms and t-norms which include algebraic, Einstein, Hamacher, Frank, and other types of t-conorms and t-norms. From that view point, in this paper the concepts of Archimedean t-conorm and t-norm are introduced to aggregate Pythagorean hesitant fuzzy information. Some new operational laws for Pythagorean hesitant fuzzy numbers based on Archimedean t-conorm and t-norm have been proposed. Using those operational laws, Archimedean t-conorm and t-norm-based Pythagorean hesitant fuzzy weighted averaging operator and weighted geometric operator are developed. Some of their desirable properties have also been investigated. Afterwards, these operators are applied to solve MCDM problems in Pythagorean hesitant fuzzy environment. The developed Archimedean aggregation operators are also applicable in Pythagorean fuzzy contexts also. To demonstrate the validity, practicality, and effectiveness of the proposed method, a practical problem is considered, solved, and compared with other existing method.     

A system for time-fluctuating flow rate measurements in a single-blade pump circuit

Commonly used flow rate measurement systems provide an accurate and stable output value of the quasi-stationary flow rate. In some pump types as e.g. single-blade pumps significant flow rate fluctuations may occur even in steady operation points due to rotor-stator interaction. For the analysis of the time-resolved flow rate a new measurement and evaluation method is presented based on an electromagnetic flow meter. Internal averaging of the flow meter is deactivated and the raw signal is evaluated directly with a sampling rate of 3 kHz. With ensemble-averaging in combination with an impeller position detection, interfering signals acting on the time-resolved measurement signal are filtered out. Accompanying numerical simulations of the pump flow circuit are carried out with a 1D method of characteristics and validated against well-established time-resolved pressure measurements of the pump flow. Experiment and simulation show a resembling trend of pressure as well as flow rate fluctuations over the entire operation range of the pump. Thus, by the combined utilisation of measurement and simulation technique, we assure the validity of the ensemble-averaged flow rate fluctuation results. We find that the flow rate fluctuations show a consistent phase shift to the pressure fluctuations that increases towards overload. The flow rate amplitude is an order of magnitude smaller than the amplitude of the pressure fluctuations.     

A numerical filtering method for linear state-space models with Markov switching

A class of discrete-time random processes arising in engineering and econometrics applications consists of a linear state-space model whose parameters are modulated by the state of a finite-state Markov chain. Typical filtering approaches are collapsing methods, which approximate filtered distributions by mixtures of Gaussians, each Gaussian corresponding to one possibility of the recent history of the Markov chain, and particle methods. This article presents an alternative approach to filtering these processes based on keeping track of the values of the underlying filtered density and its characteristic function on grids. We prove that it has favorable convergence properties under certain assumptions. On the other hand, as a grid method, it suffers from the curse of dimensionality, and so is only suitable for low-dimensional systems. We compare our method to collapsing filters and a particle filter with examples, and find that it can outperform them on 1- and 2-dimensional problems, but loses its speed advantage on 3-dimensional systems. Meanwhile, our method has a proven theoretical convergence rate that is probably not achieved by collapsing and particle methods.     

Process noise covariance estimation via stochastic approximation

Kalman filtering for linear systems is known to provide the minimum variance estimation error, under the assumption that the model dynamics is known. While many system identification tools are available for computing the system matrices from experimental data, estimating the statistics of the output and process noises is still an open problem. Correlation-based approaches are very fast and sufficiently accurate, but there are typically restrictions on the number of noise covariance elements that can be estimated. On the other hand, maximum likelihood methods estimate all elements with high accuracy, but they are computationally expensive, and they require the use of external optimization solvers. In this paper, we propose an alternative solution, tailored for process noise covariance estimation and based on stochastic approximation and gradient-free optimization, that provides a good trade-off in terms of performance and computational load, and is also easy to implement. The effectiveness of the method as compared to the state of the art is shown on a number of recently proposed benchmark examples.     

一种基于证据推理的视频运动目标融合检测算法

为了解决复杂场景下传统的运动目标检测问题, 利用证据推理—–谨慎有序加权平均方法(COWA-ER), 提出一种综合使用混合高斯、均值滤波和码本的多方法融合的检测方法. 该融合检测算法以上述3 种检测方法为准则建立一个多准则决策框架, 通过双阈值检测法来表征检测过程中的不确定性, 最终利用COWA-ER 方法进行决策级融合, 实现多种方法的优势互补. 实验表明, 所提出的融合检测算法具有更理想的目标检测效果, 能有效应对诸如阴影及光照突变等问题对检测性能的影响.

     

Elliptical distribution-based weight-determining method for ordered weighted averaging operators

The ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators play a crucial role in aggregating multiple criteria evaluations into an overall assessment supporting the decision makers’ choice. One key point steps is to determine the associated weights. In this paper, we first briefly review some main methods for determining the weights by using distribution functions. Then we propose a new approach for determining OWA weights by using the regular increasing monotone quantifier. Motivated by the idea of normal distribution-based method to determine the OWA weights, we develop a method based on elliptical distributions for determining the OWA weights, and some of its desirable properties have been investigated.