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基于小波的Web流量组合预测方法研究   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
为了提高Web流量的预测精度,提出一种基于小波、神经网络和自回归的组合预测方法.首先将Web流量构造为2个相关序列:历史序列和相似值序列;对具有平稳特征的相似值序列用AR模型进行预测;对体现了Web流量非线性、非平稳特性的历史序列则经过小波分解与单支重构后,针对各分支特点分别采用神经网络和自回归模型预测;最后组合2条序列的预测结果获得最终预测值.理论分析与实验表明:组合预测方法可以充分利用与流量相关的多种数据关系;小波分析可以将历史序列分解为多层频率成分更加单纯、更加易于预测的时间序列.因而所建方法比传统的预测方法具有更高的预测精度.  相似文献
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基于小波的Web流量组合预测方法研究   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
为了提高Web流量的预测精度,提出一种基于小波、神经网络和自回归的组合预测方法.首先将Web流量构造为2个相关序列:历史序列和相似值序列;对具有平稳特征的相似值序列用AR模型进行预测;对体现了Web流量非线性、非平稳特性的历史序列则经过小波分解与单支重构后,针对各分支特点分别采用神经网络和自回归模型预测;最后组合2条序列的预测结果获得最终预测值.理论分析与实验表明:组合预测方法可以充分利用与流量相关的多种数据关系;小波分析可以将历史序列分解为多层频率成分更加单纯、更加易于预测的时间序列.因而所建方法比传统的预测方法具有更高的预测精度.  相似文献
3.
为帮助管理员预先识别网络系统脆弱性及面临的潜在安全威胁,提出一种基于攻击图的主动响应策略选择方法.该方法利用攻击图模型分析网络攻击行为,预测攻击路径并进行定量分析.根据攻击过程中得到的观察匹配攻击图,更新信念状态,最终利用部分马尔科夫博弈(POMG)算法进行最优主动响应策略选择.实验结果表明,基于攻击图的主动响应策略选择方法能提高响应的准确性和有效性.  相似文献
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Based on the analysis of inherent limitations in existing security response decision-making systems, a dynamic adaptive model of fault response is presented. Several security fault levels were founded, which comprise the basic level, equipment level and mechanism level. Fault damage cost is calculated using the analytic hierarchy process. Meanwhile, the model evaluates the impact of different responses upon fault repair and normal operation. Response operation cost and response negative cost are introduced through quantitative calculation. This model adopts a comprehensive response decision of security fault in three principles-the maximum and minimum principle, timeliness principle, acquiescence principle, which assure optimal response countermeasure is selected for different situations. Experimental results show that the proposed model has good self-adaptation ability, timeliness and cost-sensitiveness.  相似文献
5.
Based on the analysis of inherent limitations in existing security response decision-making systems,a dynamic adaptive model of fault response is presented.Several security fault levels were founded,which comprise the basic level,equipment level and mechanism level.Fault damage cost is calculated using the analytic hierarchy process.Meanwhile,the model evaluates the impact of different responses upon fault repair and normal operation.Response operation cost and response negative cost are introduced through quantitative calculation.This model adopts a comprehensive response decision of security fault in three principles-the maximum and minimum principle,timeliness principle,acquiescence principle,which assure optimal response countermeasure is selected for different situations.Experimental results show that the proposed model has good self-adaptation ability,timeliness and cost-sensitiveness.  相似文献
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