Assessment of the different sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium)

Although rainfall input uncertainties are widely identified as being a key factor in hydrological models, the rainfall uncertainty is typically not included in the parameter identification and model output uncertainty analysis of complex distributed models such as SWAT and in maritime climate zones. This paper presents a methodology to assess the uncertainty of semi-distributed hydrological models by including, in addition to a list of model parameters, additional unknown factors in the calibration algorithm to account for the rainfall uncertainty (using multiplication factors for each separately identified rainfall event) and for the heteroscedastic nature of the errors of the stream flow. We used the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithm (DREAM_(zs)) to infer the parameter posterior distributions and the output uncertainties of a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium). Explicitly considering heteroscedasticity and rainfall uncertainty leads to more realistic parameter values, better representation of water balance components and prediction uncertainty intervals.     

Quantification of fecal coliform inputs to aquatic systems through soil leaching

In order to assess the fecal contamination of rivers in the Seine watershed through soil leaching, 78 small streams located in rural areas were sampled upstream from any wastewater outfall. Culturable fecal coliforms (FC) and beta-D-glucuronidase activity (specific of Escherichia coli) were measured in the samples. Data showed a significant correlation between both estimates of fecal contamination. In the two different areas of the Seine river watershed investigated, most of the small streams were significantly contaminated by fecal bacteria. In general, the streams flowing through areas partly or fully covered with pastures were more contaminated than those flowing through forest and cultivated areas. Rainfall increased the suspended solid content of small streams as well as their fecal contamination, as an important fraction of FC was adsorbed on particles. Calculations showed that, at a large watershed scale, the input of FC in rivers through soil leaching was very low when compared to the input through the discharge of treated domestic wastewater but this could not be true at local scale.     

Metrics to identify meaningful downscaling skill in WRF simulations of intense rainfall events

Dynamical downscaling attempts to provide regional detail to climate change projections that subsequently can be used as input to climate change impact models. However, unlike forecasts by numerical weather prediction models, downscaled projections cannot be tested for skill because the future of interest is decades away. Nevertheless, models can be tested in terms of how well they simulate current weather or climate, thus giving an indication of skill in representing the process of interest. Here, six configurations using different combinations of three microphysics and two planetary boundary layer schemes are assessed on their skill to simulate desired characteristics in daily rainfall fields from three two week simulations in southeast Australia; ‘desired’ meaning desirable in relation to the intended application. Of different metrics and analysis assessed, a metric based on variography analysis, summarising characteristics about spatial variability and dissimilarity, is shown to provide the most informative guidance relative to the desirable characteristics.     

Laboratory tests to evaluate effectiveness of wicking geotextile in soil moisture reduction

A new type of woven geotextile, referred to as wicking geotextile, was developed and introduced to the market. Since this wicking geotextile consists of wicking fibers, they can wick water out from unsaturated soils in a pavement structure thus resulting in an increase of soil resilient modulus and enhance performance of roadways. In this study, a physical model test was developed to evaluate the effectiveness of the wicking geotextile in soil moisture reduction for roadway applications. A test box with a dimension of 1041 mm in length, 686 mm in width, and 584 mm in height was used in this study. Two HDPE plastic panels were used to separate the box into two sections, one containing a dehumidifier and the other backfilled with soil. The dehumidifier was adopted to collect the water, which was wicked out from the soil by the wicking geotextile and evaporated into air. Test results show that (1) the wicking geotextile wicked water out from the soil even at the moisture content close to the optimum moisture content and (2) the comparison of soil moisture contents before and after rainfall demonstrated that the wicking geotextile maintained the soil moisture contents after rainfall close to those before rainfall and had an effective distance for the soil moisture reduction.     

Distance-dependent depth-duration analysis in high-resolution hydro-meteorological ensemble forecasting: A case study in Malmö City,Sweden

In 2014, a cloudburst hit Malmö City and parts of the city were severely flooded. In this study, we assess the possibility to forecast this event by high-resolution ensemble rainfall-runoff modelling. Meteorological reforecasts are generated by the convection-permitting HarmonEPS model and the hydrological response is simulated by the HYPE model. Although the meteorological forecasts manage to reproduce the observed extreme rainfall intensities, due to location errors only a weak, low-probability signal of a high runoff in Malmö City is obtained in direct forecasts. To describe and visualize the spatial uncertainty of local rainfall extremes in forecasts, and construct hydrological model forcing representing “worst-case ensembles”, an approach called Distance-Dependent Depth-Duration in Forecasts (4DF) is proposed. In this approach, a depth-duration analysis is combined with a neighborhood approach to describe rainfall severity as a function of distance from the basin. The results demonstrated the applicability of the approach for improved situation awareness.     

Laboratory Simulation of Urban Runoff and Estimation of Runoff Hydrographs with Experimental Curve Numbers Implemented in USEPA SWMM

The prognostic capabilities of a lumped hydrologic modeling approach may be complicated by routing and connectivity among infiltrative and impervious surfaces. We used artificial rainfall to generate runoff from impervious and bare soil boxes arranged in series to simulate different extents and connectivity of impervious surfaces under different moisture conditions for pervious areas. Curve numbers were calculated from observed rainfall and runoff data, compared with published values, and used in the curve number infiltration algorithm in the U.S. EPA Storm Water Management Model 5 (USEPA SWMM5) to generate runoff hydrographs. Experimental curve numbers were higher than tabular USDA values, ranging from 91 to 96. Simulations of infiltration and runoff response with experimental curve numbers showed overall good agreement with observed data, although SWMM5 was unable to re-create early term infiltration patterns, and simulated runoff lagged observed, which is attributed to implicit accounting for soil moisture and other assumptions of the SWMM5 curve number application. Our results highlight some prospects for the use of curve numbers in modeling infiltration and runoff.     

我国油菜生产应对气候变化的对策和措施分析

本文分析了近年来气候变化特点及其对我国油菜生态环境和油菜生产的影响。结果表明,随着气温升高,冬油菜潜在种植面积显著增加,传统的油菜生产格局发生改变,体现出明显的＂东减、北移、西扩＂特征;由于降水分布不均、极端气候事件频繁,油菜单产增加趋势减缓,油菜生产的不稳定性显著增加。根据当前油菜生产所面临的问题,提出了整合育种和栽培措施的应对策略。     

The Falling Lake Victoria Water Level: GRACE,TRIMM and CHAMP Satellite Analysis of the Lake Basin

In the last 5 years, Lake Victoria water level has seen a dramatic fall that has caused alarm to water resource managers. Since the lake basin contributes about 20% of the lakes water in form of discharge, with 80% coming from direct rainfall, this study undertook a satellite analysis of the entire lake basin in an attempt to establish the cause of the decline. Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) satellites were employed in the analysis. Using 45 months of data spanning a period of 4 years (2002–2006), GRACE satellite data are used to analyse the variation of the geoid (equipotential surface approximating the mean sea level) triggered by variation in the stored waters within the lake basin. TRMM Level 3 monthly data for the same period of time are used to compute mean rainfall for a spatial coverage of .25°×.25° (25×25 km) and the rainfall trend over the same period analyzed. To assess the effect of evaporation, 59 CHAMP satellite’s occultation for the period 2001 to 2006 are analyzed for tropopause warming. GRACE results indicate an annual fall in the geoid by 1.574 mm/year during the study period 2002–2006. This fall clearly demonstrates the basin losing water over these period. TRMM results on the other hand indicate the rainfall over the basin (and directly over the lake) to have been stable during this period. The CHAMP satellite results indicate the tropopause temperature to have fallen in 2002 by about 3.9 K and increased by 2.2 K in 2003 and remained above the 189.5 K value of 2002. The tropopause heights have shown a steady increase from a height of 16.72 m in 2001 and has remained above this value reaching a maximum of 17.59 km in 2005, an increase in height by 0.87 m. Though the basin discharge contributes only 20%, its decline has contributed to the fall in the lake waters. Since rainfall over the period remained stable, and temperatures did not increase drastically to cause massive evaporation, the remaining major contributor is the discharge from the expanded Owen Falls dam.     

Evaluation of Surficial Stability for Homogeneous Slopes Considering Rainfall Characteristics

Shallow slope failures in residual soil during periods of prolonged infiltration are commonly occurring in the world. This study examines an infinite slope analysis to estimate the influence of infiltration on surficial stability of slopes by the limit equilibrium method. An approximate method that accommodates the boundary condition of a uniform rainfall has been proposed to evaluate the likelihood of shallow slope failure that is induced by a particular rainfall event. The method based on the Mein and Larson model, which provides an explicit solution for preponding infiltration, has been applied to various types of soil having measured unsaturated hydraulic properties. To compare results with those obtained from the approximate method, a series of numerical analyses were carried out. According to the results, with the use of properly estimated input parameters, the approximate method was found to give results that compare reasonably well with those of more rigorous finite element analyses.