基于云概率密度分布估计的大坝监测数据分析

大坝运行监测易受自然环境和监测条件影响，存在时间和空间上的变异性，监测数据具有不确定性。以云理论的随机性和不确定性分析方法为基础，并与空间数据辐射思想相结合，建立了云滴概率密度分布估计模型，然后导出云概率密度分布函数，依据样本监测数据推求母体空间数据的分布特征，并设计了基于逆向云算法云变换的计算程序。分析陆浑水库1979~1999年测压管监测数据和位移变形数据的云概率密度分布特征和云数字特征，得出了20 a来大坝的数据分布特征和运行状态。监测数据分析结果表明，云概率密度分布估计不仅能有效合理地分析大坝的运行状态，而且能够依据云数字特征来判断监测状态和监测环境的异常变化。      

砾岩储层精细描述中标准测井资料的应用

克拉玛依油田七区的标准测井资料是指使用标准电极系视电阻率测井、自然电位测井和井径测井,以相同的1:500深度比例尺及相同的横向比例进行测井作业所取得的资料.这种资料本来并不具备定量解释储层孔隙度和含油饱和度的能力,但这种资料占该区测井资料总量的比率高达34%.利用标准电极系视电阻率资料和岩心分析资料建立了视电阻率-岩性图版,利用自然电位减小系数α和岩心孔隙度分析资料φ建立了α-φ图版,根据综合测井资料求出标准测井视电阻率校正系数,进而确定了饱和度计算方程的参数.与相应的综合测井资料计算结果相对比,用该方法得到的孔隙度平均绝对误差及相对误差分别为1.85%和11.88%;含油饱和度平均绝对误差及相对误差分别为9.08%和24.75%.将该方法有选择地应用到该区砾岩储层精细描述研究中,弥补了缺乏综合测井资料无法进行测井储层评价及参数研究的缺陷.     

大坝安全监控专家系统中的知识处理

在介绍产生式规则及其数学模型的基础上，论述了用成熟的关系数据库 技术来表示和存储产生式规则表示的专家知识的方法，较好地解决了知识的存储和管理问题 。同时，利用关系数据库中实体间的关系，很容易将分散存储的规则元素组合成规则供推理 时使用。在分析了大坝安全监控专家系统知识特点的基础上举例说明了用关系数据库表 示产生式规则的具体方法。     

新疆伊犁托海水电站拱坝坝体变形监测分析

根据托海拱坝5号坝段、7号坝段例垂线实测资料分析，说明了新疆寒冷地区坝体采取聚胺脂喷涂施工措施后对坝体变形的影响，以及右坝肩渗漏对右坝肩岩体的影响，分析结果为托海水电站通过国家电力公司大坝安全监察中心大坝安全首次定检提供了科学依据。     

国外尾矿坝安全与环境研究综述

安全与环境一直是国外尾矿坝研究的重点。笔者综述了自1990年以来国外涉及尾矿坝安全与环境方面有代表性的文献 ,内容包括尾矿坝溃坝、溃坝理论研究、安全管理、环境污染、污染监测、污染治理、污染理论研究及生态复垦 ,这些对提高我国尾矿坝管理、工程技术水平都有较好的参考价值     

关于重力坝坝内细部构造设计的几个问题

重力坝常采用横，纵缝将坝体分为柱状体施工。为此，横缝须设置止水，纵缝则待坝体冷却后灌浆，将柱状坝块连成整体。此外坝体内部还须设置坝面排水管以消除坝内渗透压力。关于坝内这些细部构造，设计规范仅有原则性要求，一般专业书列举不多，目前有些工程往往参照已建工程的设计图采用，常由于施工详图不祥易发生施工质量问题。根据丹江口重力坝设计经验，对接缝灌浆中的键槽，止浆片，灌浆管道，出浆盒，排气槽及排气管，基岩陡坡     

珠江三角洲土坝和堤围震害初步预测

本项预测采用概率方法,即首先根据广东省水利部门提出的55座土坝和59个重点的座标(见附图),进行概率地震危险性分析,给出它们在一定预测年限T(取50年和100年)的地震烈度Ⅰ的超越概率;其次根据近年我国发生的几次强震时处于不同烈度区内的土坝和堤防的震害资料,形成表示土坝和土堤地震易损性的震害概率矩阵;然后,根据上述两方面结果用概率公式评价各土坝和堤围点在预测年限内各震害等级的超越概率,并取10％超越概率为标准,估计震害等级。结果表明,珠江三角洲土工构筑物的地震危害性南部高于北部。     

Judgment: The Foundation of Professional Success.

Lists of core competencies or critical capabilities are popular and plentiful. This article makes the case that a single core competency or critical capability accounts for professional success: the exercise of judgment. Judgment is the critical determinant of the quality of professional decisions, actions, and evaluations. Practical models of judgment are presented. The elements and dynamics of judgment are detailed. Individual, group, and organization implications are explored. Coaching and consulting interventions are explained. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Impact of dams on point bar habitat: a case for the extirpation of the Sacramento Valley Tiger Beetle,C. hirticollis abrupta

Quantitative analyses of flow and stage data, remote sensing and geographic information systems analysis, and field studies were used to assess the impact of dams and diversions on the point bar habitat of the Sacramento Valley Tiger Beetle (Cicindela hirticollis abrupta). The reaches of interest include sites of known historic populations of C. h. abrupta along the Sacramento River from approximately 8 km north of Colusa southward to the confluence with the Feather River and along the Feather River between Yuba City and its confluence with the Sacramento River. The results from this study show that construction of two major dams has altered flows such that prolonged and increased flows during summer, fall, and early winter have most likely disrupted life cycles, flooded larvae, drowned overwintering adults and led to high mortality. Additionally, habitat availability has decreased over time because point bars have decreased in number and area causing increased distances between populations and isolation of populations. Moreover, point bar armouring, channel scouring, altered flows, redirected flows through weirs, and lithologic controls have produced a bimodal distribution of mean grain sizes in the Sacramento River in which the more northern bars contain gravel deposits and more southern bars possess fine sands. These conditions negatively alter moisture retention and sediment compaction and, consequently, burrowing conditions needed by this tiger beetle. Additionally, more stabilized flows (reduced variability) and increased fine‐grained deposition have enabled development and encroachment of vegetation onto the sand bars. Finally, human stresses, such as foot traffic and vehicular traffic may have interfered with burrowing, ovipositing, and foraging. The combination of these stress factors has most likely led to a reduction in source populations and, ultimately, the apparent extirpation of the entire metapopulation. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.