基于概率法的电力系统安全分析

为应对电力系统安全分析中的停机问题，基于概率法的方式，将常用的确定停机计算与加入了概率法的概率停机进行比较，研究了二者的区别与其在长期投资方向的不同。在进行电力系统停机分析时，通常会分别从确定停机与概率停机的角度出发，对其应急状态下的潮流进行计算。但前者的方法可能导致极低概率的停机事件被忽略，进而影响长期的资金投资。通过加入概率法的计算，使得对单个停机事件的判定由其具体的频率来确定，增加了系统运行的稳定性。     

基于误差估值累加开环校正的诱导式欺骗检测方法

诱导式卫星欺骗干扰可诱导航空器逐渐偏离预定航迹，难以被发现，因此及时有效地检测干扰是飞行安全的保障。在现有紧组合导航体制基础上，设计了一种基于误差估值累加开环校正的紧组合导航结构，并证明了其性能与传统闭环校正紧组合导航性能等效。在此结构中，将紧组合导航系统与自适应序贯概率比检测方法结合，提出了一种基于误差估值累加开环校正的诱导式欺骗检测方法，融合紧组合导航信息与其他不受欺骗影响的导航信息，构建欺骗检测统计量进行诱导式欺骗检测。仿真结果表明，开环校正结构可避免随时间累加的惯性导航系统误差所导致的组合导航滤波器发散问题，同时欺骗检测方法可进一步提高算法对“最坏”情形下微小诱导式欺骗的检测效果。     

自适应背景光估计与非局部先验的水下图像复原

有效地实现单幅水下降质图像复原对水下资源探索及环境监控领域的清晰图像获取具有极其重要的意义。为解决常用暗通道先验方法来复原图像时,背景光的估计易受白色物体干扰,且无法有效估计前景中白色物体透射率,复原质量不高的问题。本文提出了自适应背景光估计与非局部先验的水下图像复原算法。首先根据背景光具有高亮度及平坦性的特点,利用阈值分割算法获得背景光的候选区域,再通过图像的色调信息从候选信息中选取最佳的背景光点。随后,利用各颜色通道光的波长与散射系数的相关性,提出了适用于水下图像的非局部先验,并利用该先验估计各通道的透射率。最后针对复原结果中,因水下介质,微生物,水流影响而产生的加性噪声,设计去噪的最小优化问题,并利用引导滤波求解该问题,以去除复原结果中的加性噪声。实验表明:该算法在确保运行效率的基础上,准确地估计透射率,较常用算法的复原精度提高了约18%。证明了该算法能有效用于单幅水下图像复原的工程实践中。     

Advances in statistical mechanics of rock masses and its engineering applications

To efficiently link the continuum mechanics for rocks with the structural statistics of rock masses,a theoretical and methodological system called the statistical mechanics of rock masses(SMRM)was developed in the past three decades.In SMRM,equivalent continuum models of stressestrain relationship,strength and failure probability for jointed rock masses were established,which were based on the geometric probability models characterising the rock mass structure.This follows the statistical physics,the continuum mechanics,the fracture mechanics and the weakest link hypothesis.A general constitutive model and complete stressestrain models under compressive and shear conditions were also developed as the derivatives of the SMRM theory.An SMRM calculation system was then developed to provide fast and precise solutions for parameter estimations of rock masses,such as full-direction rock quality designation(RQD),elastic modulus,Coulomb compressive strength,rock mass quality rating,and Poisson’s ratio and shear strength.The constitutive equations involved in SMRM were integrated into a FLAC3D based numerical module to apply for engineering rock masses.It is also capable of analysing the complete deformation of rock masses and active reinforcement of engineering rock masses.Examples of engineering applications of SMRM were presented,including a rock mass at QBT hydropower station in northwestern China,a dam slope of Zongo II hydropower station in D.R.Congo,an open-pit mine in Dexing,China,an underground powerhouse of Jinping I hydropower station in southwestern China,and a typical circular tunnel in Lanzhou-Chongqing railway,China.These applications verified the reliability of the SMRM and demonstrated its applicability to broad engineering issues associated with jointed rock masses.     

Attitudinal choice models with applications in human decision making

A new family of attitudinal discrete choice models is proposed by considering the attitudinal character and the weight vector, both of which are specific to a decision maker (DM). Given the attribute values of different alternatives, the proposed models give varying choice probabilities, as per the DM's-specific attitudinal character and the weight vector. It is also shown that the conventional discrete choice models are the special cases of the proposed attitudinal models. The proposed choice models are also generalized through an additional parameter to add to their capabilities. An application on real data is included to demonstrate their usefulness in the real world.     

含分布式能源区域电网月最大净负荷概率预测

负荷预测在电网规划和运行中十分重要,大规模分布式能源接入电网参与能量交换,可使电网用户优化其用电模式,但造成区域电网月最大净负荷特性发生根本性改变,增加了月最大净负荷预测的不确定性。为此,结合BP神经网络算法与分位数回归模型,构建了区域电网月最大净负荷的非线性概率预测模型;并利用核密度估计算法计算得到了月最大净负荷概率预测分布曲线;最后,以上海某含分布式能源区域电网为例,验证了该方法的可行性与可靠性。结果表明,该方法可准确刻画月最大净负荷波动特性,为电网规划与负荷管理提供依据。     

节理岩体边坡采动损伤与可靠性分析

为定量分析节理岩体边坡的采动损伤对边坡可靠性的影响,通过对大孤山铁矿下盘混合岩边坡进行现场勘测与模糊C均值聚类优化分析,确定了岩体2组优势节理的倾向、倾角、迹长和密度的随机分布参数。利用Hoek-Brown强度准则参数m和s与岩体质量分类指标GSI和扰动系数的关系,采用Monte-Carlo模拟抽样技术获得了节理岩体强度的随机分布参数。建立了节理岩体损伤与扰动系数D的联系,应用Kawarnoto损伤张量对采动损伤进行了数值分析,并根据Rosenblueth原理获得了扰动系数D以及反映时空效应和各向异性的岩体强度随机分布参数。基于此,定量分析了大孤山铁矿下盘混合岩节理岩体边坡采动损伤的时空变化特征及其对边坡稳定性的影响。结果表明,采场底标高从-87 m降至最终-450 m时,坡顶至-87 m水平同一高度滑弧可靠性指标相对下降7.7%,原因为采场下移导致节理岩体损伤加剧、强度降低所致,并且危险滑面逐渐向坡面偏移,与坡面近处岩体的损伤较大相关。     

Time dependent failure probability estimation of the solid oxide fuel cell by a creep-damage related Weibull distribution model

In present paper, a new model is proposed and embedded into the finite element software ABAQUS to estimate the time dependent failure probability of the solid oxide fuel cell stack. The results show that sealant is the potential failure region of the solid oxide fuel cell stack, while the failure probability of the anode, electrolyte and cathode are very small within the operation time of 50,000 h. The creep and damage distribution of the components reflect that the proposed model can reasonably predict the time dependent failure probability of the solid oxide fuel cell stack. Increasing either the characteristic strain, Weibull modulus or decreasing the operating temperature can decrease the failure probability of the SOFC stack. For the sealant, to ensure the high temperature integrity of the SOFC stack, the characteristic strain should be larger than 0.01 or Weibull modulus should be higher than 8.0 under the operating temperature of 600 °C.