Probabilistic learning on manifolds (PLoM) with partition

The probabilistic learning on manifolds (PLoM) introduced in 2016 has solved difficult supervised problems for the “small data” limit where the number N of points in the training set is small. Many extensions have since been proposed, making it possible to deal with increasingly complex cases. However, the performance limit has been observed and explained for applications for which N is very small and for which the dimension of the diffusion-map basis is close to N. For these cases, we propose a novel extension based on the introduction of a partition in independent random vectors. We take advantage of this development to present improvements of the PLoM such as a simplified algorithm for constructing the diffusion-map basis and a new mathematical result for quantifying the concentration of the probability measure in terms of a probability upper bound. The analysis of the efficiency of this extension is presented through two applications.     

快速近似计算Shapley值的归因解释方法

Shapley值归因解释方法虽然能更准确量化解释结果, 但过高的计算复杂度严重影响了该方法的实用性. 本文引入KD树重新整理待解释模型的预测数据, 通过在KD树上插入虚节点, 使之满足TreeSHAP算法的使用条件, 在此基础上提出了KDSHAP方法. 该方法解除了TreeSHAP算法仅能解释树结构模型的限制, 将该算法计算Shapley值的高效性放宽到对所有的黑盒模型的解释中, 同时保证了计算准确度. 通过实验对比分析, KDSHAP方法的可靠性, 以及在解释高维输入模型时的适用性.     

多堆厂址始发事件分析探讨

多堆厂址一级概率安全评价（PSA）研究中，机组数目的增加使得建模工作量剧增，给整个核电厂的风险评估带来困难。结合已有基础，本文研究了多堆厂址始发事件分析的筛选方法，提出利用堆芯损伤频率（CDF）上下限值评估方法，分析厂址内不同机组数对厂址CDF的影响。结果表明，双机组厂址适合优先进行具体分析。针对双机组核电站，对多堆厂址内各始发事件进行筛选。结果表明，丧失厂外电、丧失热阱等事件适合建模分析，并对其他筛选结果给出后续分析建议，为多堆厂址一级PSA后续事故序列建模工作提供了重要基础。     

Development of Phospholipids Vesicular Nanocarrier for Topical Delivery of Tea Tree Oil in Management of Atopic Dermatitis Using BALB/c Mice Model

This work aims to develop and evaluate the efficacy of tea tree oil (TTO) ethosomal cream with improved deposition in skin layers for treatment of atopic dermatitis (AD). Ethosomes of TTO are developed using phosphatidylcholine (2% and 3% w/v) and ethanol (20%, 30%, and 40% w/v). Ethosomes are evaluated for percent entrapment efficiency (%EE), vesicle size, zeta potential, and in vitro drug diffusion. Ethosomal creams with optimized ethosomal dispersion are developed and evaluated for physicochemical parameters, thermal stability, ex vivo permeation, skin retention, and in vitro cytotoxicity using HaCat skin cell lines in comparison to conventional creams of TTO. In vivo investigations of optimized creams are performed using BALB/c mice model. The %EE, vesicle size, and zeta potential for optimized ethosomes are found to be 76.19 ± 3.26%, 333.6 nm, and –35.3 mV, respectively. Ethosomal creams showed higher deposition in the epidermis and dermis. The optimized creams are non-cytotoxic to HaCat cell lines. The creams significantly reduce the inflammatory response by decreasing the clinical score and infiltration of white blood cells, eosinophils, and IgE antibodies. Overall efficacy of ethosomal cream is higher than conventional cream. In conclusion, optimized ethosomal cream of TTO shows good efficacy for treatment of AD. Practical applications : The method used for the formulation of ethosomes is simple and can be easily scaled up on the industrial level. The loading of TTO within ethosomes can increase the efficiency by enhanced drug deposition in the epidermis and might also improve its stability against oxidative degradation. Topical ethosomal cream of TTO can improve patient compliance by avoidance of adverse effects linked with corticosteroids and could be a possible complementary or alternative therapy in management of AD.     

适用于无线体域网的动态口令认证协议

无线体域网中传输的是与生命高度相关的敏感数据，身份认证是信息安全保护的第一道防线。现有的基于人体生物信息的身份认证方案存在信息难提取、偶然性大和误差性大的问题，基于传统密码学的认证方案需较大计算资源和能量消耗，并不适用于无线体域网环境。为此，在动态口令和非对称加密机制基础上，提出一种适用于无线体域网的动态口令双向认证轻量协议，并对其进行形式化分析。通过理论证明、SVO逻辑推理及SPIN模型检测得出：该协议满足双向认证，且能够抵御重放攻击、伪装攻击、拒绝服务器攻击和口令离线攻击，具有较高安全性。     

混合概率模型驱动的叠前地震反演方法

叠前地震反演是获取复杂油气储层弹性参数、岩性及含流体性质的主要途径。常规的叠前地震反演往往将“弹性参数”、“离散岩性”和“流体因子”三者独立预测，通常忽视了储层岩性差异对弹性参数的影响，由此引入的先验信息误差会严重影响弹性参数、离散岩性及流体指示因子预测的精度。为此，考虑待反演模型参数的先验概率服从混合型概率密度分布，基于贝叶斯框架推导了由时域、频域地震、低频整合先验信息及已知模型数据点四类数据集协同约束的后验混合概率分布的显式解，将非线性边界约束算法引入叠前地震弹性参数反演中，缓解了模型反演出现不稳定解的问题；利用序贯模拟算法对后验概率密度函数随机采样，且对不同后验概率分量的模拟结果进行分类，发展了对地层连续“弹性参数”、“离散岩性”及储层“流体因子”的叠前地震同步预测方法。理论测试和实际应用验证了该方法在岩性预测和储层孔隙流体识别中的有效性和实用性。     

Learning Association Rules and Tracking the Changing Concepts on Webpages: An Effective Pornographic Websites Filtering Approach

We applied the decision tree algorithm to learn association rules between webpage’s category (pornographic or normal) and the critical features. Based on these rules, we proposed an efficient method of filtering pornographic webpages with the following major advantages: 1) a weighted window-based technique was proposed to estimate for the condition of concept drift for the keywords found recently in pornographic webpages; 2) checking only contexts of webpages without scanning pictures; 3) an incremental learning mechanism was designed to incrementally update the pornographic keyword database.     

Co-creation of value and the project context: Towards application on the case of Hinkley Point C Nuclear Power Station

The research analyses decisions as evaluative outcomes regarding project value. The UK-French Hinkley Point C Nuclear Power Station provides the case study. Value is traditionally assessed as inputs and outputs. Here, value is conceptualized as a co-created value proposition at the front-end with implications for realization post-completion. Service-dominant logic (SDL) provides the theoretical lens and contributes to a methodological approach for examining projects. Decision-making outcomes provide the evidence from a range of data sources, including reports and commentaries. The methods are interpretative. The findings show that decision-making extends beyond the time-cost-quality/scope dimensions. The long-term issues regarding value realized are often overlooked. Stakeholders and individual actors have mainly focused upon managing political and financial risks, especially time and cost. The research poses challenges to project management analysis, SDL and research design in assessing evidence. Addressing these issues facilitates a knowledge contribution to SDL theorization and the field of project management.