成型温度对PBX装药内部质量及性能的影响

针对压制成型的PBX炸药装药，选择CT无损检测、巴西实验和扫描电镜检测等技术，对比研究了室温和加热两种温度下压制成型的炸药装药内部质量、静态力学性能和细观破坏形式。结果表明，加热压制有利于改善炸药装药的内部质量，可避免产生初始损伤，且提高了装药的力学性能。细观尺度上，室温压制成型的装药主要发生界面脱黏破坏，加热压制成型装药的主要破坏形式是穿晶断裂。     

基准平面垂直断面法在爆破漏斗试验中的应用

系统阐述了基准平面垂直断面法在爆破漏斗试验中测量爆破漏斗体积的基本原理,并将隧道激光断面仪应用于金厂河矿1 750 m水平15^#采场底部切割巷道爆破漏斗试验爆破漏斗体积测量中。通过与传统体重法等计算法所得漏斗体积分析比较,结果表明基于隧道激光断面仪与3D Mine软件分析的基准平面垂直断面法实用性强、操作方便、结果直观可靠,达到试验预期目的。     

Reproductive tract disease in Irish grazing dairy cows: Retrospective observational study examining its association with reproductive performance and accuracy of 2 diagnostic tests

The detection of reproductive tract disease (RTD) 3 wk postpartum is important because of its effect on subsequent reproductive outcomes. Numerous methods for the diagnosis of RTD are described, some of which are more practical and instantaneous in terms of diagnosis. Two of these methods involve identification of purulent vaginal discharge (PVD) and evidence of ultrasonographic uterine changes indicative of endometritis (UE). The objectives of our retrospective observational study were (1) to assess the association of PVD or UE score at the prebreeding examination (PBE) with the hazard of pregnancy within the subsequent breeding season; (2) to determine the test sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) at the point of sampling of both tests using a Bayesian latent class model; and (3) to determine the effect of varying positivity thresholds on test accuracy. To achieve these objectives, we analyzed an initial data set of 5,049 PBE from 2,460 spring-calved cows in 8 herds between 2014 and 2018. Each PBE was conducted once between 25 and 86 d in milk. At each PBE, vaginal discharge was obtained with a Metricheck device (Simcro) whereas uterine contents were assessed using transrectal ultrasonography. Purulent vaginal discharge was scored on a scale of 0 to 3 depending on discharge character, and UE was scored on a scale of 0 to 4 depending on the presence and consistency of intraluminal fluid. Cows with scores of ≥2 in either test had received treatment. Fertility data were available from 4,756 PBE after data exclusion. The association between PVD or UE score at the PBE and subsequent hazard of pregnancy was analyzed using a Cox proportional hazards model. Cows with a PVD score of 2 or 3 were less likely to conceive than cows with a PVD score 0 [score 2 hazard ratio (HR) = 0.74; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.59–0.94; score 3 HR = 0.65; 95% CI: 0.51–0.84]. Cows with a UE score of 1, 2, 3, or 4 were less likely to conceive than cows with a UE score of 0 (score 1 HR = 0.82; 95% CI: 0.73–0.93; score 2 HR = 0.79; 95% CI: 0.62–1.00; score 3 HR = 0.43; 95% CI: 0.43–0.90; score 4 HR = 0.39; 95% CI: 0.26–0.58). To determine the Se and Sp of PVD or UE score for diagnosis of RTD at the time of PBE, a Bayesian latent class model was fitted on 2,460 individual cow PBE. Flat priors were used for the Se and Sp of UE, whereas informative priors were used for PVD Se (mode = 65%, 5th percentile = 45%) and Sp (mode = 90%, 5th percentile = 80%) and RTD prevalence (mode = 20%, 5th percentile = 10%). Posterior estimates (median and 95% Bayesian probability intervals; BPI) were obtained using ‘rjags' (R Studio). The optimal test thresholds (PVD and UE score ≥1) were selected by assessing the effect of different thresholds on test estimates and using a misclassification cost analysis. Based on these, median (95% BPI) Se for PVD and UE score ≥1 were 44% (29–60%) and 67% (33–100%), respectively. Median Sp for PVD and UE score ≥1 were 90% (86–93%) and 91% (86–93%), respectively. Higher scores in both tests were associated with impaired fertility, and UE scoring with a threshold of ≥1 had the highest test Se and Sp estimates although test Se was conditional on days in milk when the PBE occurred.     

电力保护装置自动测试系统设计与研究

电力保护装置在出厂前要进行严格的板卡测试,传统板卡测试系统自动化程度较低,功能不够强大,且开发成本高,通用性不好。针对以上不足,设计了一种基于虚拟仪器的板卡测试系统,该系统主要由测试程序和上位机两部分组成,测试程序主要完成对板卡设备的模块化测试,并给出测试结果;上位机通过以太网与测试板卡通信,借助FTP和telnet技术,完成整个测试程序的发送、执行、测试结果的获取等功能。以电力保护装置内的CPU板卡为研究对象,结果表明,该测试系统可对板卡进行高效率自动测试,测试结果可靠,故障信息可追踪,可有效提高电力保护装置调试的通过率,保证企业产品的可靠性。     

基于误差估值累加开环校正的诱导式欺骗检测方法

诱导式卫星欺骗干扰可诱导航空器逐渐偏离预定航迹，难以被发现，因此及时有效地检测干扰是飞行安全的保障。在现有紧组合导航体制基础上，设计了一种基于误差估值累加开环校正的紧组合导航结构，并证明了其性能与传统闭环校正紧组合导航性能等效。在此结构中，将紧组合导航系统与自适应序贯概率比检测方法结合，提出了一种基于误差估值累加开环校正的诱导式欺骗检测方法，融合紧组合导航信息与其他不受欺骗影响的导航信息，构建欺骗检测统计量进行诱导式欺骗检测。仿真结果表明，开环校正结构可避免随时间累加的惯性导航系统误差所导致的组合导航滤波器发散问题，同时欺骗检测方法可进一步提高算法对“最坏”情形下微小诱导式欺骗的检测效果。     

Probabilistic learning on manifolds (PLoM) with partition

The probabilistic learning on manifolds (PLoM) introduced in 2016 has solved difficult supervised problems for the “small data” limit where the number N of points in the training set is small. Many extensions have since been proposed, making it possible to deal with increasingly complex cases. However, the performance limit has been observed and explained for applications for which N is very small and for which the dimension of the diffusion-map basis is close to N. For these cases, we propose a novel extension based on the introduction of a partition in independent random vectors. We take advantage of this development to present improvements of the PLoM such as a simplified algorithm for constructing the diffusion-map basis and a new mathematical result for quantifying the concentration of the probability measure in terms of a probability upper bound. The analysis of the efficiency of this extension is presented through two applications.     

机器翻译译文质量估计综述

机器翻译译文质量估计(Quality Estimation,QE)是指在不需要人工参考译文的条件下,估计机器翻译系统产生的译文的质量,对机器翻译研究和应用具有很重要的价值。机器翻译译文质量估计经过最近几年的发展,取得了丰富的研究成果。该文首先介绍了机器翻译译文质量估计的背景与意义;然后详细介绍了句子级QE、单词级QE、文档级QE的具体任务目标、评价指标等内容,进一步概括了QE方法发展的三个阶段: 基于特征工程和机器学习的QE方法阶段,基于深度学习的QE方法阶段,融入预训练模型的QE方法阶段,并介绍了每一阶段中的代表性研究工作;最后分析了目前的研究现状及不足,并对未来QE方法的研究及发展方向进行了展望。     

快速近似计算Shapley值的归因解释方法

Shapley值归因解释方法虽然能更准确量化解释结果, 但过高的计算复杂度严重影响了该方法的实用性. 本文引入KD树重新整理待解释模型的预测数据, 通过在KD树上插入虚节点, 使之满足TreeSHAP算法的使用条件, 在此基础上提出了KDSHAP方法. 该方法解除了TreeSHAP算法仅能解释树结构模型的限制, 将该算法计算Shapley值的高效性放宽到对所有的黑盒模型的解释中, 同时保证了计算准确度. 通过实验对比分析, KDSHAP方法的可靠性, 以及在解释高维输入模型时的适用性.     

Automated prediction system of household energy consumption in cities using web crawler and optimized artificial intelligence

The supply of electrical energy is critical to convenient and comfortable living. However, people consume a large amount of energy, contributing to an energy crisis and global warming, and damaging some ecological cycles. Residential electricity consumption has greater elasticity than industrial and business consumption; it therefore has high energy-saving potential. This work establishes an automated platform, which provides information about residential electricity consumption in each city in Taiwan. Machine learning was used to forecast future residential electricity demand. A nature-inspired optimization method was applied to enhance the accuracy of the best machine learner, yielding an even better hybrid ensemble model. Performance measures indicate that the resulting model is accurate and provides effective information for reference. An automatic web-based system based on the model was combined with a web crawler and scheduled to run automatically to provide information on monthly residential electricity consumption in each county and city. By providing energy consumption information across the country, power providers and government can discuss policy and set different goals for energy use. The results of this study can facilitate the early implementation of energy-saving and carbon emission-reducing in cities and aid utility companies in establishing energy conservation guidelines.     

Prediction of fish quality level with machine learning

In this study, sea bream, sea bass, anchovy and trout were captured and recorded using a digital camera during refrigerated storage for 7 days. In addition, their total viable counts (TVC) were determined on a daily basis. Based on the TVC, each fish was classified as ‘fresh’ when it was <5 log cfu per g, and as ‘not fresh’ when it was >7 log cfu per g. They were uploaded on a web-based machine learning software called Teachable Machine (TM), which was trained about the pupils and heads of the fish. In addition, images of each species from different angles were uploaded to the software in order to ensure the recognition of fish species by TM. The data of the study indicated that the TM was able to distinguish fish species with high accuracy rates and achieved over 86% success in estimating the freshness of the fish species tested.