Influencer-defaulter mutation-based optimization algorithms for predicting electricity prices

Efficient electricity price forecasting plays a significant role in our society. In this paper, a novel influencer-defaulter mutation (IDM) mutation operator has been proposed. The IDM operator has been combined with six well-known optimization algorithms to create mutated optimization algorithms whose performance has been tested on twenty-four standard benchmark functions. Further, the artificial neural network is integrated with mutated optimization algorithms to solve the electricity price prediction problem. The policymakers can identify appropriate variables based on the predicted prices to help future market planning. The statistical results prove the efficacy of the IDM operator on the recent optimization algorithms.     

非常规气藏储层改造体积评价方法研究

为精确描述非常规气藏压裂后的复杂流动特征及定量评价储层改造体积（SRV），利用自主研发的缝网重构算法“破裂树生长法”建立压后缝网模型，并以此为基础提出了使用拟稳态流动时特定的压力等值线来确定SRV范围的定量评价方法，最后以长宁201井区为例进行了矿场实例分析。该方法根据微地震监测点的位置，重构出微裂缝网的连通关系。在复杂微裂缝网的基础上建立离散裂缝地质模型并进行生产数值模拟，根据数值模拟结果的压力分布精确划定SRV的范围。利用该方法计算出长宁201井区的SRV体积为0.052 1 km3，以该缝网模型的数值模拟产量预测结果符合实际生产规律，方法实用性较好。     

Predictive environmental hydrogen embrittlement on fracture toughness of commercial ferritic steels with hydrogen-modified fracture strain model

In this work, a practical numerical model with few parameters was proposed for the prediction of environmental hydrogen embrittlement. The proposed method adopts hydrogen enhanced plasticity-based mechanism in a fracture strain model to describe hydrogen embrittlement. Fracture toughness degradation of three commercial steels SA372J70, AISI4130 and X80 in high pressure hydrogen environment were investigated. Firstly, governing equations for hydrogen distribution and material damage evolution was established. Hydrogen enhanced localized flow softening effect was coupled within fracture strain dependency on stress triaxiality. Then, the numerical implementation and identification process of model parameters was described. Model parameters of the investigated steels were determined based on experiment results from literatures. Finally, with the calibrated model, fracture toughness reduction of the steels was predicted in a wide range of hydrogen pressure. The prediction results were compared with experimental results. Reasonable accuracy was reached. The proposed method is an attempt to reach balance between physical accurate prediction and engineering practicality. It is promising to provide a simplified numerical tool for the design and fit for service evaluation of hydrogen storage vessels.     

Experimental study and model predictions on helium release in an enclosure with single or multiple vents

This paper presents experiments performed at Canadian Nuclear Laboratories (CNL) to examine the dispersion behaviour of helium in a polycarbonate enclosure that was representative of a residential parking garage. The purpose was to gain a better understanding of the effect of buoyancy- or wind-driven natural ventilation on hydrogen dispersion behaviour. Although hydrogen dispersion studies have been reported extensively in the literature, gaps still exist in predictive methods for hazard analysis. Helium, a simulant for hydrogen, was injected near the centre of the floor with a flow rate ranging from 5 to 75 standard litres per minute through an upward-facing nozzle, resulting in an injection Richardson number ranging between 10^?1 and 10². The location of the nozzle varied from the bottom of the enclosure to near the ceiling to examine the impact of the nozzle elevation on the development of a stratified layer in the upper region of the enclosure. When the injection nozzle was placed at a sufficiently low elevation, the vertical helium profile always consisted of a homogenous layer at the top overlaying a stratified layer at the bottom. To simulate outdoor environmental conditions, a fan was placed in front of each vent to examine the effect of opposing or assisting wind on the dispersion. The helium transients in the uniform layer predicted with analytical models were in good agreement with the measured transients for most tests. Model improvements are required for adequately predicting transients with primarily stratified profiles or strong opposing wind.     

Removing data and using metafounders alleviates biases for all traits in Lacaune dairy sheep predictions

Bias in dairy genetic evaluations, when it exists, has to be understood and properly addressed. The origin of biases is not always clear. We analyzed 40 yr of records from the Lacaune dairy sheep breeding program to evaluate the extent of bias, assess possible corrections, and emit hypotheses on its origin. The data set included 7 traits (milk yield, fat and protein contents, somatic cell score, teat angle, udder cleft, and udder depth) with records from 600,000 to 5 million depending on the trait, ～1,900,000 animals, and ～5,900 genotyped elite artificial insemination rams. For the ～8% animals with missing sire, we fit 25 unknown parent groups. We used the linear regression method to compare “partial” and “whole” predictions of young rams before and after progeny testing, with 7 cut-off points, and we obtained estimates of their bias, (over)dispersion, and accuracy in early proofs. We tried (1) several scenarios as follows: multiple or single trait, the “official” (routine) evaluation, which is a mixture of both single and multiple trait, and “deletion” of data before 1990; and (2) several models as follows: BLUP and single-step genomic (SSG)BLUP with fixed unknown parent groups or metafounders, where, for metafounders, their relationship matrix gamma was estimated using either a model for inbreeding trend, or base allele frequencies estimated by peeling. The estimate of gamma obtained by modeling the inbreeding trend resulted in an estimated increase of inbreeding, based on markers, faster than the pedigree-based one. The estimated genetic trends were similar for most models and scenarios across all traits, but were shrunken when gamma was estimated by peeling. This was due to shrinking of the estimates of metafounders in the latter case. Across scenarios, all traits showed bias, generally as an overestimate of genetic trend for milk yield and an underestimate for the other traits. As for the slope, it showed overdispersion of estimated breeding values for all traits. Using multiple-trait models slightly reduced the overestimate of genetic trend and the overdispersion, as did including genomic information (i.e., SSGBLUP) when the gamma matrix was estimated by the model for inbreeding trend. However, only deletion of historical data before 1990 resulted in elimination of both kind of biases. The SSGBLUP resulted in more accurate early proofs than BLUP for all traits. We considered that a snowball effect of small errors in each genetic evaluation, combined with selection, may have resulted in biased evaluations. Improving statistical methods reduced some bias but not all, and a simple solution for this data set was to remove historical records.     

Liquefaction behavior of fiber-reinforced calcareous sands in unidirectional and multidirectional simple shear tests

A study on the liquefaction resistance of calcareous sands reinforced with polypropylene fibers was reported. Stress-controlled cyclic simple shear tests were conducted on specimens prepared at a relative density of 50%, with and without fiber reinforcements. The liquefaction behavior was investigated by considering the effects of fiber contents ranging from 0% to 1%, fiber lengths varying from 3 mm to 12 mm and loading patterns. The results indicated that increasing fiber content and fiber length resulted in a decrease in the deformation, a reduction in pore pressure accumulation rate, and improved the liquefaction resistance of calcareous sands. Additionally, the risk of soil liquefaction could be significantly reduced when the fiber content was greater than 0.8%. The multidirectional loading had a considerable effect in reducing the liquefaction resistance compared to unidirectional loading. Further, the stiffness degradation of calcareous sands decreased with increasing fiber content and fiber length. The pore pressure generated in the cyclic tests was analyzed and was found to be affected by fiber content. A pore pressure prediction model was proposed to obtain the pore pressure characteristics of fiber-reinforced calcareous sands under various fiber content conditions.     

A tool for mass transfer evaluation in packed-bed columns for chemical engineering students

This paper presents a Microsoft Excel tool to calculate liquid-gas mass transfer coefficients in packed towers to support numerical design activities in the courses of Unit Operations for Industrial Process and Sustainable Process Design for the Master’s degree in Chemical Engineering of the University of Naples Federico II (Italy).The Mass Transfer Solver Tool (MT Solver Tool) uses several available models to estimate, separately, the values of liquid and gas mass-transfer coefficients and the wet surface area for 144 random and structured packings of interest for absorption/stripping and distillation processes. In addition, a separate spreadsheet can be used in a user-defined mode, to evaluate the mass transfer coefficients with new packing types or to interpret experimental data when the geometrical and physical characteristics of the packing are known. Eventually, the tool is supplied with a data library, where packing geometry and model fitting parameters can be retrieved.The software is aimed to support students and educators in the Unit Operations for Industrial Process and Sustainable Process Design courses. In particular, this is meant to be an example on how the accuracy of design algorithms adopted in unit operation processes is affected by the use of the underpinning correlations for mass transfer rate or pressure drops. Besides, this is aimed to encourage comparison of different correlations when exact field data are not available. Besides, chemical engineers and researchers interested in packed columns design and modelling data may also benefit from the utilization of the software. The MT Solver Tool was introduced to students in a dedicated tutorial lesson after lecturers on packed column design algorithms for distillation, absorption and stripping. Most of the students of the course participated to a group training aimed to simulate the design of an absorption column supported by the MT Solver Tool providing feedback on its application.After the training, an anonymous survey was proposed to the students to monitor the approval rating of the proposed activity and the use of the MT Solver Tool software to support numerical calculations.     

Digital twin-based analysis of volumetric error mapping procedures

The evaluation of the volumetric accuracy of a machine tool is an open challenge in the industry, and a wide variety of technical solutions are available in the market and at research level. All solutions have advantages and disadvantages concerning which errors can be measured, the achievable uncertainty, the ease of implementation, possibility of machine integration and automation, the equipment cost and the machine occupation time, and it is not always straightforward which option to choose for each application. The need to ensure accuracy during the whole lifetime of the machine and the availability of monitoring systems developed following the Industry 4.0 trend are pushing the development of measurement systems that can be integrated in the machine to perform semi-automatic verification procedures that can be performed frequently by the machine user to monitor the condition of the machine. Calibrated artefact based calibration and verification solutions have an advantage in this field over laser based solutions in terms of cost and feasibility of machine integration, but they need to be optimized for each machine and customer requirements to achieve the required calibration uncertainty and minimize machine occupation time.This paper introduces a digital twin-based methodology to simulate all relevant effects in an artefact-based machine tool calibration procedure, from the machine itself with its expected error ranges, to the artefact geometry and uncertainty, artefact positions in the workspace, probe uncertainty, compensation model, etc. By parameterizing all relevant variables in the design of the calibration procedure, this simulation methodology can be used to analyse the effect of each design variable on the error mapping uncertainty, which is of great help in adapting the procedure to each specific machine and user requirements. The simulation methodology and the analysis possibilities are illustrated by applying it on a 3-axis milling machine tool.     

An integrated model for analysing the effects of ultrasonic vibration on tool torque and thermal processes in friction stir welding

An integrated model of ultrasonic vibration enhanced friction stir welding (UVeFSW) is developed by integrating the thermal-fluid model with the ultrasonic field model and tool torque model. The tool torque and the heat generation rate at tool/workpiece contact interfaces are coupled with the interfacial temperature, strain rate and ultrasonic energy density. The model is used in quantitatively analysing the effects of ultrasonic vibration on tool torque and thermal processes in friction stir welding (FSW). The results show that ultrasonic vibration reduces the flow stress, which results in a decreasing of tool torque, interfacial heat generation rate and interfacial temperature. The complicated interaction of ultrasonic energy with the thermal processes in FSW leads to a gentle thermal gradient and an enhanced plastic material flow in UVeFSW. The model is validated by a comparison of the calculated thermal cycles and tool torque at various welding parameters with the experimentally measured ones.     

A novel multi-objective optimization method: Input values effect on responses (IVER)

In this study, a novel multi-objective optimization method based on the best effect of unique input (independent variable) values on responses (dependent variables) was proposed. The proposed method was compared with optimization using Derringer & Suich function that is still the most used. The comparison was made using the response values measured in real experiments and available in the literature. The advantages of the proposed method such as not needing the polynomial model aiming to predict the response values, no parameter selection problem, being able to offer optimum range instead of single optimum value, being suitable for use with existing experimental designs and being simple and interpretable were demonstrated as a result of comparison. It was also suggested how the proposed method will be effective according to experimental designs, and application for the users' application was presented.