水库突发事件应急预案研究现状与关键技术初探

水库突发事件应急预案是大坝风险管理中非常重要的一个环节,是降低水库大坝风险的非工程措施.本文总结了国内水库突发事件应急预案的研究现状,并结合我国实际国情,初步提出了开展应急预案的关键技术,供大坝安全管理及科研人员参考.     

Exceptions that prove the rule--Using a theory of motivated social cognition to account for ideological incongruities and political anomalies: Reply to Greenberg and Jonas (2003).

A meta-analysis by J. T. Jost, J. Glaser, A. W. Kruglanski, and F. J. Sulloway (2003) concluded that political conservatism is partially motivated by the management of uncertainty and threat. In this reply to J. Greenberg and E. Jonas (2003), conceptual issues are clarified, numerous political anomalies are explained, and alleged counterexamples are incorporated with a dynamic model that takes into account differences between "young" and "old" movements. Studies directly pitting the rigidity-of-the-right hypothesis against the ideological extremity hypothesis demonstrate strong support for the former. Medium to large effect sizes describe relations between political conservatism and dogmatism and intolerance of ambiguity; lack of openness to experience; uncertainty avoidance; personal needs for order, structure, and closure; fear of death; and system threat. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The effects of widowhood on physical and mental health, health behaviors, and health outcomes: The Women's Health Initiative.

This study examined whether widowhood was associated with physical and mental health, health behaviors, and health outcomes using a cross-sectional (N=72,247) and prospective (N=55,724) design in women aged 50-79 years participating in the Women's Health Initiative observational study (85.4% White). At baseline, married women reported better physical and mental health and generally better health behaviors than widowed women. Whereas women who remained married over the 3-year period showed stability in mental health, recent widows experienced marked impairments and longer term widows showed stability or slight improvements. Both groups of widows reported more unintentional weight loss over the 3-year period. Changes in physical health and health behaviors were inconsistent, with generally small effect sizes. Findings underscore the resilience of older women and their capacity to reestablish connections, but point to the need for services that strengthen social support among women who have difficulty during this transition. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

A goal-striving life event and the onset of hypomanic and depressive episodes and symptoms: Perspective from the Behavioral Approach System (BAS) dysregulation theory.

On the basis of the behavioral approach system (BAS) dysregulation theory of bipolar disorder, this study examined the relation between occurrence of a BAS activation-relevant life event--goal striving--and onset of hypomanic and depressive episodes and symptoms. In particular, the authors examined the relation between preparing for and completing final exams (a goal-striving event) and onset of bipolar spectrum episodes and symptoms in college students with bipolar II disorder or cyclothymia (i.e., "soft" bipolar spectrum conditions). One hundred fifty-nine individuals with either a bipolar spectrum disorder (n=68) or no major affective psychopathology (controls; n=91) were further classified on the basis of whether they were college students (i.e., completed final exams). Consistent with the BAS dysregulation theory, preparing for and completing final exams was associated with an increase in hypomanic but not depressive episodes and symptoms in individuals with a soft bipolar spectrum diagnosis. Furthermore, self-reported BAS sensitivity moderated the presence of certain hypomanic symptoms during final exams. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Mining for trigger events with survival analysis

This paper discusses a new application of data mining, quantifying the importance of responding to trigger events with reactive contacts. Trigger events happen during a customer’s lifecycle and indicate some change in the relationship with the company. If detected early, the company can respond to the problem and retain the customer; otherwise the customer may switch to another company. It is usually easy to identify many potential trigger events. What is needed is a way of prioritizing which events demand interventions. We conceptualize the trigger event problem and show how survival analysis can be used to quantify the importance of addressing various trigger events. The method is illustrated on four real data sets from different industries and countries.     

Savoring Versus Dampening: Self-Esteem Differences in Regulating Positive Affect.

Five studies examined the hypotheses that when people experience positive affect, those low in self-esteem are especially likely to dampen that affect, whereas those high in self-esteem are especially likely to savor it. Undergraduate participants' memories for a positive event (Study 1) and their reported reactions to a success (Study 2) supported the dampening prediction. Results also suggest that dampening was associated with worse mood the day after a success (Study 2), that positive and negative affect regulation are distinct, that self-esteem is associated with affect regulation even when Neuroticism and Extraversion are controlled (Studies 3 and 4), and that self-esteem may be especially important for certain types of positive events and positive affect regulation (Study 5). (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Memory organization of action events and its relationship to memory performance.

Previous research yielded inconsistent results regarding the memory organization of self-performed actions. The authors propose that task performance changes the very basis of memory organization. Enactment during study and test (Experiment 1) yielded stronger enactive clustering (based on motor-movement similarities), whereas verbal encoding yielded stronger conceptual clustering (based on semantic-episodic similarities). Enactment enhanced memory quantity and memory accuracy. Both measures increased with enactive clustering under self-performance instructions but with conceptual clustering under verbal instructions. Enactment only during study (Experiment 2) or only during testing (Experiment 3) also enhanced enactive clustering. It is proposed that different conditions affect the relative salience of different types of memory organization and their relative contribution to recall. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Sensitivity analysis for simulation-based decision making: Application to a hospital emergency service design

An increasing concern of decision makers when dealing with system design is preparation for a wide range of potentially uncertain operating conditions. This paper provides a novel multiobjective approach for simulation-driven decision making that accounts for not only the conventional average system performance indices, but also (i) upper-tail, or extreme, values of these indices, and (ii) measures of their sensitivity to uncertainty in model parameters. The proposed approach is applied to a hospital emergency department service design case study wherein different design alternatives are compared using total time-in-system performance metric under multiple uncertain operating conditions.     

高校扩招背景下大学生心理问题易发事件及其相关因素研究

本研究用高校学生心理问题调查问卷对 16 2 4名大学生进行调查 ,并用SCL - 90量表对其中 5 80名学生进行测评 ,同时测量学生的特质性应对方式 ,探讨高校扩招背景下大学生的心理问题易发事件及相关因素。扩招后大学生自感压力最大的心理问题易发事件是感到竞争激烈、择业困难、考试不过关等 ;大部分易发事件都和SCL - 90总分及各因子分存在着极显著相关 ;应对方式和易发事件及SCL - 90总分、各因子分存在着极显著的相关。扩招后和竞争、就业、学业相关的心理问题易发事件已成为影响大学生心理健康的首要因素     

动态贝叶斯网络在态势评估中的应用

针对目前战场态势变化的复杂性和多样性,尤其是战场信息的不确定性和模糊性,提出了利用动态贝叶斯网络,根据态势事件与态势假设之间的潜在关系建立态势评估的功能模型,从而实现态势评估,并用具体的实例验证了该方法的有效性.仿真结果表明,依据动态贝叶斯网络建立的态势评估模型,能够将各种特征因素进行综合,使得不同时间片的特征因素相互修正,从而能够准确地跟踪战场态势的变化,所得态势评估结果为指挥员分析当前态势和决策提供了支持.