后处理设施放射性液体贮罐泄漏事故环境释放源项估算

放射性液体泄漏事故是后处理设施典型的事故,泄漏事故通常发生在设备室。高放废液贮槽泄漏后气载放射性核素生成包括两个过程:一是在泄漏放射性液体的过程中惰性气体从溶液中释放,以及与空气、地板相互作用产生的气溶胶;二是泄漏后的蒸发过程(包括冲洗前稀释前和稀释后)。气溶胶在设备室内生成后会发生沉积,同时随着设备室排风系统,经过滤后向环境排放。本文给出了一种放射性溶液贮槽泄漏事故源项估算方法,实现了事故泄漏质量、泄漏活度、设备室气载放射性活度浓度及积分浓度、环境释放源项估算,为事故应急决策和响应行动提供数据支持。     

A two-dimensional air streamer discharge modified model based on artificial stability term under non-uniform electric field at low temperature and sub-atmospheric pressure

In this paper, an improved air discharge fluid model under non-uniform electric field is constructed based on the plasma module COMSOL Multiphysics with artificial stability term, and the boundary conditions developed in the previous paper are applied to the calculation of photoionization rate. Based on the modified model, the characteristics of low temperature subatmospheric air discharge under 13 kV direct current voltage are discussed, including needle-plate and needle-needle electrode structures. Firstly, in order to verify the reliability of the model, a numerical example and an experimental verification were carried out for the modified model respectively. Both verification results show that the model can ensure the accuracy and repeatability of the calculation. Secondly, according to the calculation results of the modified model, under the same voltage and spacing, the reduced electric field under low temperature subatmosphere pressure is larger than that under normal temperature and atmospheric pressure. The high electric field leads to the air discharge at low temperature and sub atmospheric pressure entering the streamer initiation stage earlier, and has a faster propagation speed in the streamer development stage, which shortens the overall discharge time. Finally, the discharge characteristics of the two electrode structures are compared, and it is found that the biggest difference between them is that there is a pre-ionization region near the cathode in the needle-needle electrode structure. When the pre-ionization level reaches 10~(13) cm~(-3), the propagation speed of the positive streamer remains unchanged throughout the discharge process, and is no longer affected by the negative streamer. The peak value of electric field decreases with the increase of pre-ionization level, and tends to be constant during streamer propagation. Based on the previous paper, this paper constructs the air discharge model under non-uniform electric field, complements with the previous paper, and forms a relatively complete set of air discharge simulation system under low temperature and sub atmospheric pressure, which provides a certain reference for future research.     

地表径流速度对城市内涝影响规律

为分析地表径流速度对城市内涝的影响,采用一维地下排水管网与二维城区地形的动态耦合模型,选取大连市某排水区块作为研究区域,设置4种地表径流速度10种设计降雨场景,模拟分析在不同重现期设计降雨及不同地表径流速度下研究区的内涝积水特性。结果表明:随着地表径流速度降低,管道排水压力变小,管道排水达标率最高可提升48.05%,且降雨重现期越短,地表径流流速对管道排水压力的削减效果越明显;地表径流流速对检查井溢流量影响显著,随着地表径流速度降低,检查井溢流量峰值最高可减小2 750 m~3,峰现时间最长可滞后56 min,同时随着降雨重现期增长,地表径流流速对检查井溢流量的削减效果减弱;研究区低、高风险区淹没面积随地表径流速度降低,最高可分别减小1.64万、8.37万m~2,但中风险区淹没面积变化反复。     

基于VMD和改进TCN的短期光伏发电功率预测

光伏发电功率存在波动性,且光伏出力易受各种气象特征影响,传统TCN网络容易过度强化空间特性而弱化个体特性。针对上述问题,文中提出一种基于VMD和改进TCN的短期光伏发电功率预测模型。通过VMD将原始光伏发电功率时间序列分解为若干不同频率的模态分量,将各个模态分量以及相对应的气象数据输入至改进TCN网络进行建模学习。利用中心频率法确定VMD的最优分解模态分解个数。在传统TCN预测模型的基础上,使用DropBlock正则化取代Dropout正则化以达到抑制卷积层中信息协同的效果,并引入注意力机制自主挖掘并突出关键气象输入特征的影响,量化各气象因素对光伏发电的影响,从而提高预测精度。以江苏省某光伏电站真实数据为例进行仿真实验,结果表明所提预测方法的RMSE为0.62 MW,MAPE为2.03%。     

事故条件下模块化小堆与同厂址大堆的辐射影响对比分析

本文针对海南小堆的实际厂址环境特征,根据机组初步的二级PSA源项,利用更实际的CALPUFF烟团模式开展事故条件下小堆和大堆对场外公众的辐射影响分析,比较不同事故下对周边居民和工作人员的受照特征。按照针对小堆的剂量准则,确定各种天气条件下满足该准则的距离,有助于更深入地认识小堆的事故特征及应急计划区划分等问题,为相关工程实践和应急监管工作提供参考。     

核临界事故报警系统布置分析方法研究

本文阐述了布置核临界事故报警系统的意义和原则,分析了核临界事故可能发生的机理,初步建立了一套核临界事故情景假设分析方法。研究了最小临界事故源项计算方法以及三维剂量场分布计数的方法,采用各设备最小临界事故剂量场分布最小值等高线图的方法来从众多剂量场分布图中优化选取合适的核临界事故报警系统布置点位,以确保其可以覆盖到每个具有核临界事故风险的设备,并对核临界事故报警系统探头类型选择的原则和方法进行了分析。     

Functional Dysregulations in CA1 Hippocampal Networks of a 3-Hit Mouse Model of Schizophrenia

For a better translation from treatment designs of schizophrenia to clinical efficiency, there is a crucial need to refine preclinical animal models. In order to consider the multifactorial nature of the disorder, a new mouse model associating three factors (genetic susceptibility—partial deletion of the MAP6 gene, early-life stress—maternal separation, and pharmacological treatment—chronic Δ-9-tetrahydrocannabinol during adolescence) has recently been described. While this model depicts a schizophrenia-like phenotype, the neurobiological correlates remain unknown. Synaptic transmission and functional plasticity of the CA1 hippocampal region of male and female 3-hit mice were therefore investigated using electrophysiological recordings on the hippocampus slice. While basal excitatory transmission remained unaffected, NMDA receptor (NMDAr)-mediated long-term potentiation (LTP) triggered by theta-burst (TBS) but not by high-frequency (HFS) stimulation was impaired in 3-hit mice. Isolated NMDAr activation was not affected or even increased in female 3-hit mice, revealing a sexual dimorphism. Considering that the regulation of LTP is more prone to inhibitory tone if triggered by TBS than by HFS, the weaker potentiation in 3-hit mice suggests a deficiency of intrinsic GABA regulatory mechanisms. Indeed, NMDAr activation was increased by GABA_A receptor blockade in wild-type but not in 3-hit mice. This electrophysiological study highlights dysregulations of functional properties and plasticity in hippocampal networks of 3-hit mice, one of the mechanisms suspected to contribute to the pathophysiology of schizophrenia. It also shows differences between males and females, supporting the sexual dimorphism observed in the disorder. Combined with the previously reported study, the present data reinforce the face validity of the 3-hit model that will help to consider new therapeutic strategies for psychosis.     

Multiple Empirical Kernel Learning with Majority Projection for imbalanced problems

Traditional Multiple Empirical Kernel Learning (MEKL) expands the expressions of the sample and brings better classification ability by using different empirical kernels to map the original data space into multiple kernel spaces. To make MEKL suit for the imbalanced problems, this paper introduces a weight matrix and a regularization term into MEKL. The weight matrix assigns high misclassification cost to the minority samples to balanced misclassification cost between minority and majority class. The regularization term named Majority Projection (MP) is used to make the classification hyperplane fit the distribution shape of majority samples and enlarge the between-class distance of minority and majority class. The contributions of this work are: (i) assigning high cost to minority samples to deal with imbalanced problems, (ii) introducing a new regularization term to concern the property of data distribution, (iii) and modifying the original PAC-Bayes bound to test the error upper bound of MEKL-MP. Through analyzing the experimental results, the proposed MEKL-MP is well suited to the imbalanced problems and has lower generalization risk in accordance with the value of PAC-Bayes bound.     

时态神经网络模型及其在股票分类预测上应用

对具有时间属性的数据进行数据挖掘称为时态数据挖掘，用以发现数据在时间上的知识，当数据变化不规律时，如股票交易数据,就很难发现有价值的规律与规则。而神经网络具有并行、容错、可以硬件实现以及自我学习的优点,可作为股票分类预测应用的一种方法。通过将股票数据与时态型相结合，将股票数据转换成时态型股票数据，提出时态神经网络模型的分类方法，对收集的若干上市公司十年内的股票数据进行分析，构建了时态股票数据神经网络分类器对股票进行分类预测。经过实验验证，相比改进前的神经网络和支持向量机方法，该分类器具有更高的分类准确率。结果证明，这种时态数据神经网络模型对于多只股票的分类预测是非常有效的，可以很好地运用到股票市场的分类预测中。     

含分布式能源区域电网月最大净负荷概率预测

负荷预测在电网规划和运行中十分重要,大规模分布式能源接入电网参与能量交换,可使电网用户优化其用电模式,但造成区域电网月最大净负荷特性发生根本性改变,增加了月最大净负荷预测的不确定性。为此,结合BP神经网络算法与分位数回归模型,构建了区域电网月最大净负荷的非线性概率预测模型;并利用核密度估计算法计算得到了月最大净负荷概率预测分布曲线;最后,以上海某含分布式能源区域电网为例,验证了该方法的可行性与可靠性。结果表明,该方法可准确刻画月最大净负荷波动特性,为电网规划与负荷管理提供依据。