解析“限额设计”措施对建设项目投资的控制对策

经济新常态下,我国建筑行业得到快速发展。对于建筑工程来说,为节约成本,在"限额设计"思想指导下,必须开展精细化管理,从而提高项目投资的控制能力。然而,在项目建设过程中对于"限额设计"措施的利用水平并不高,不利于企业的可持续发展。因此,本文在分析"限额设计"措施的基础上,提出对建设项目投资的控制对策,希望能够对相关施工管理人员提供借鉴。     

How does a bank's involvement interplay with a firm's capacity investment? An analysis and comparison of different consortium structures

As nonrecourse project finance (rather than financing on a sovereign basis) is becoming more prevalent worldwide, financing institutions have to collaborate more closely with firms to optimize capacity‐investment and financing decisions. Under this background, this paper presents a stylized Stackelberg games model, taking into account the firm's capacity investment as well as the bank's interest rate and funding ratio decisions. Consortium structures between bank and firm are formalized into five modes based on industry practice, namely, the integrated consortium, pure shareholder funding, bank as leader, full coordination, and bank as follower. The optimality and equilibrium of each of the five modes are analytically derived, and their existence and uniqueness are demonstrated. Valuable economic insights are obtained through both modeling analysis and numerical experiments, with the main findings including the following: (i) a lack of bank financing leads to insufficient capacity investment and poor consortium performance; (ii) interest rate and funding ratio play important but different roles in the bank's risk management; (iii) the bank's proactivity in leading and coordinating the consortium is critical for the two parties’ overall performance; and (iv) if the bank is the follower, the firm's capacity decision is irrelevant to the bank's loan contract, and the consortium cannot be coordinated to the first‐best level of performance.     

Methodology for optimization of pouring variables using bottom pour for low masses of SS304 (<300 kg) in investment casting process (case study)

Bottom pour ladles with stopper rod systems are commonly used in the metal casting industry. However, stopper rod bottom-pouring systems have not yet been developed for the lower thermal masses of alloys typically used in the investment casting industry. Large thermal masses used with bottom pour systems are typically limited for ladles larger than 700 kg and to certain alloys with higher fluidity and longer solidification time like cast iron, aluminum alloys etc. In this study, bottom pour ladle designs and low thermal mass refractory systems have been developed and evaluated in production investment foundry trials with 300 kg pouring ladle. The ladles system and pouring practices used will be described along with the results from the pouring trials for SS304 that represents typical alloys used in Investment casting industries. Optimization of the variables used in an experimentation using Genetic algorithm is also explained.     

Dairy farmers with larger herd sizes adopt more precision dairy technologies

An increase in the average herd size on Australian dairy farms has also increased the labor and animal management pressure on farmers, thus potentially encouraging the adoption of precision technologies for enhanced management control. A survey was undertaken in 2015 in Australia to identify the relationship between herd size, current precision technology adoption, and perception of the future of precision technologies. Additionally, differences between farmers and service providers in relation to perception of future precision technology adoption were also investigated. Responses from 199 dairy farmers, and 102 service providers, were collected between May and August 2015 via an anonymous Internet-based questionnaire. Of the 199 dairy farmer responses, 10.4% corresponded to farms that had fewer than 150 cows, 37.7% had 151 to 300 cows, 35.5% had 301 to 500 cows; 6.0% had 501 to 700 cows, and 10.4% had more than 701 cows. The results showed that farmers with more than 500 cows adopted between 2 and 5 times more specific precision technologies, such as automatic cup removers, automatic milk plant wash systems, electronic cow identification systems and herd management software, when compared with smaller farms. Only minor differences were detected in perception of the future of precision technologies between either herd size or farmers and service providers. In particular, service providers expected a higher adoption of automatic milking and walk over weighing systems than farmers. Currently, the adoption of precision technology has mostly been of the type that reduces labor needs; however, respondents indicated that by 2025 adoption of data capturing technology for monitoring farm system parameters would be increased.     

Economic effects of regulating the seismic strengthening of older buildings

The marked increase in the awareness of earthquake risk following the Canterbury earthquakes in New Zealand offered a unique opportunity to investigate the economic effect of disaster-mitigation regulations on the commercial building stock. A difference-in-differences (DD) framework was used to determine whether earthquake risk has been capitalized into the property prices of buildings constructed prior to 1976, as a response to the national policy requiring assessment and strengthening (or demolition) of the existing earthquake-prone building stock. A negative externality is found in the policy announcement on affected (pre-1970s) office and retail buildings which caused office buildings to suffer a 12.5% stigma discount. However, retail properties were less impacted suffering a 2.3% stigma loss. The value of the commercial building stock has been affected by the policy. These findings provide policy-makers with timely evidence as to the economic effects of New Zealand’s earthquake-prone buildings policy. Facing losses in property value and financial responsibility for retrofitting their assets, building owners will be looking for a workable set of regulatory and non-regulatory incentives to encourage disaster risk management and protect the built environment.     

Economic Indicators

Currency exchanges rates – updated monthly. Economic indicators of industrial production. Countries included: France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Japan (Total G-7), Eurozone and Total EU-28 (Total OECD). Updated monthly. Economic indicators of car registration in the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, Turkey, the United Kingdom, Japan, Republic of Korea and Other OECD (Total OECD-30). Updated monthly. Monthly averages of crude steel production in thousand metric tons for the United States, Canada, Brazil, Mexico, Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, the United Kingdom, Russia, Ukraine, South Africa, Iran, China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea, Taiwan and Australia.     

浅谈高压中速磨粉系统在磷酸二铵生产中的应用

通过对磷酸二铵生产造粒特性分析,高压中速磨粉机原理分析,结合实践生产中的工艺需求,利用高压中速磨粉系统将颗粒状不合格品磨成细粉后添加进系统重新喷浆造粒,提高返料添加量,减少不合格品的产生,腾空仓库有限货位,以获取更大的经济价值。     

An economic evaluation of management strategies to mitigate the negative effect of twinning in dairy herds

Our objectives were to develop an economic model to estimate the economic impact of twinning in dairy cows and to evaluate management strategies to mitigate the negative economic impact of twinning in dairy herds. A probabilistic tree considering spontaneous embryo reduction, early pregnancy loss, abortion, metritis, retained placenta, and culling rate at 120 d of the second, at the end of the second, and at the end of the third lactation was developed for a single pregnancy; we also developed 3 management options upon diagnosis of a twin pregnancy: (1) do nothing, (2) induce abortion using PGF_2α, or (3) attempt manual embryo reduction. A value was given to each branch of the tree by simulating cow states on a farm for 1,400 d to encompass 4 consecutive lactations. The incomes considered in the simulations included milk income over feed cost, income from calves, and slaughter value upon culling. The expenses taken into account depending on each branch included additional inseminations and synchronization protocols, embryo reduction, induction of abortion, replacement heifers, and costs due to metritis and retained placenta. The gross value for a singleton pregnancy and the 3 management options upon diagnosis of a twin pregnancy were calculated by adding the value of all braches multiplied by their probability. The costs for the 3 management options were calculated by subtracting its gross value minus the gross value of a singleton pregnancy. The negative economic impact of a twin pregnancy ranged from $97 to $225 depending on the type of twin pregnancy (unilateral vs. bilateral), parity, and DIM when the twin pregnancy occurred. The overall negative economic impact of twinning on dairy farm profitability in the United States was estimated to be $96 million per year. Attempting manual embryo reduction early during gestation upon diagnosis of a twin pregnancy was the optimal management strategy for mitigating the negative economic impact of twinning under a wide variety of scenarios.     

长江经济带城市生态效率演变及驱动因素分析

城市生态文明建设依托于生态效率的改善，基于2005—2016年长江经济带107座城市面板数据，采用超效率SBM（slacks-based measure)模型测算生态效率，并结合探索性空间分析与空间马尔科夫链等探讨生态效率时空演化格局的内在规律， 实证分析生态效率驱动因素的影响效果。研究表明：2005—2016年经济带生态效率总体呈平稳态势，上、中、下游呈现“阶梯型”分布，下游依次优于中游和上游地区，部分地区生态效率呈“两级型”分化趋势；城市间生态效率发展存在空间联动效应，与生态效率高的城市为邻，其正向溢出作用促进城市状态向高水平跃迁，而与生态效率低的城市为邻，其负向作用拉动城市状态向低水平发展；人口规模与产业升级对经济带不同流域具有异质性作用，其提升下游生态效率而抑制中游和上游生态效率，产业升级与生态效率存在“U”型关联，意味着产业升级在短期内并不能使生态效率状态改善，而经济发展有利于促进生态效率向高水平状态演变。     

Modeling managerial behavior in real options valuation for project-based environments

Project valuation, as a decision-making tool for initiating investments in projects, should be able to value project flexibilities and incorporate reasonable risk preferences of relevant decision makers. Real options valuation methods are the available approaches for valuing project flexibilities, whereas they have shortcomings in considering managers’ reasonable risk preferences in project decisions. Therefore, researchers have suggested approximating the perspective on risk of real options methods and practitioners in project management. This study proposes a fair real options valuation for project-based environments by a behavioral economic approach, which adopts binomial lattice method, Monte-Carlo simulation, and cumulative prospect theory. The results show that behavioral factors such as ‘risk attitude’ and ‘loss aversion’ should be accepted in project investment decisions while limited to an acceptable amount depending on the project conditions (e.g. uniqueness of decision-making scenarios). This research contributes to the project management domain by enhancing project investment decisions that include project flexibilities.