Extrapolation of fuzzy values from incomplete data bases

This paper presents different approaches which enable a data base management system to obtain a plausible fuzzy estimate for an attribute value of an item for which the information is not explicitly stored in the data base. This can be made either by a kind of analogical reasoning from information about particular items or by means of expert rules which specify the (fuzzy) sets of possible values of the attribute under consideration, for various classes of items. Another kind of expert rules enables the system to compute an estimate from the attribute value of another item provided that, in other respects, this latter item sufficiently resembles the item, the value of which we are interested in; then these expert rules are used either for controlling the analogical reasoning process or for enlarging the scope of application of the first kind of expert rules. The different approaches are discussed in the framework of possibility theory.     

Uncertainty,belief, and probability1

We introduce a new probabilistic approach to dealing with uncertainty, based on the observation that probability theory does not require that every event be assigned a probability. For a nonmeasurable event (one to which we do not assign a probability), we can talk about only the inner measure and outer measure of the event. In addition to removing the requirement that every event be assigned a probability, our approach circumvents other criticisms of probability-based approaches to uncertainty. For example, the measure of belief in an event turns out to be represented by an interval (defined by the inner and outer measures), rather than by a single number. Further, this approach allows us to assign a belief (inner measure) to an event E without committing to a belief about its negation -E (since the inner measure of an event plus the inner measure of its negation is not necessarily one). Interestingly enough, inner measures induced by probability measures turn out to correspond in a precise sense to Dempster-Shafer belief functions. Hence, in addition to providing promising new conceptual tools for dealing with uncertainty, our approach shows that a key part of the important Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is firmly rooted in classical probability theory. Cet article présente une nouvelle approche probabiliste en ce qui concerne le traitement de l'incertitude; celle-ci est basée sur l'observation que la théorie des probabilityés n'exige pas qu'une probabilityé soit assignée à chaque événement. Dans le cas d'un événement non mesurable (un événement pour lequel on n'assigne aucune probabilityé), nous ne pouvons discuter que de la mesure intérieure et de la mesure extérieure de l'évenément. En plus d'éliminer la nécessité d'assigner une probabilityéà l'événement, cette nouvelle approche apporte une réponse aux autres critiques des approches à l'incertitude basées sur des probabilityés. Par exemple, la mesure de croyance dans un événement est représentée par un intervalle (défini par la mesure intérieure et extérieure) plutǒt que par un nombre unique. De plus, cette approche nous permet d'assigner une croyance (mesure intérieure) à un événement E sans se compromettre vers une croyance à propos de sa négation -E (puisque la mesure intérieure d'un événement et la mesure intérieure de sa négation ne sont pas nécessairement une seule et unique mesure). II est intéressant de noter que les mesures intérieures qui résultent des mesures de probabilityé correspondent d'une manière précise aux fonctions de croyance de Dempster-Shafer. En plus de constituer un nouvel outil conceptuel prometteur dans le traitement de l'incertitude, cette approche démontre qu'une partie importante de la théorie de l'évidence de Dempster-Shafer est fermement ancrée dans la theorie classique des probabilityés.     

EXTENSION OF THE RELATIONAL DATABASE AND ITS ALGEBRA WITH ROUGH SET TECHNIQUES

This paper describes a database model based on the original rough sets theory. Its rough relations permit the representation of a rough set of tuples not definable in terms of the elementary classes, except through use of lower and upper approximations. The rough relational database model also incorporates indiscernibility in the representation and in all the operators of the rough relational algebra. This indiscernibility is based strictly on equivalence classes which must be defined for every attribute domain. There are several obvious applications for which the rough relational database model can more accurately model an enterprise than does the standard relational model. These include systems involving ambiguous, imprecise, or uncertain data. Retrieval over mismatched domains caused by the merging of one or more applications can be facilitated by the use of indiscernibility, and naive system users can achieve greater recall with the rough relational database. In addition, applications inherently “rough” could be more easily implemented and maintained in the rough relational database.     

Reserve estimation of an open pit mine under price uncertainty by real option approach

Reserve estimation is a key to find the correct NPV in a mining project. The most important factor in reserve estimation is the metal price. Metal price fluctuations in recent years were exaggerated, and imposed a high degree of uncertainty to the re-serve estimation, and in consequence to the whole mine planning procedure. Real option approach is an efficient method of deci-sion making in the uncertain conditions. This approach has been used for evaluation of defined natural resources projects until now. This study considering the metal price uncertainty used real option approach to prepare a methodology for reserve estimation in open pit mines. This study was done on a copper cylindrical deposit, but the achieved methodology can be adjusted for all kinds of deposits. This methodology was comprehensively described through the examples in such a manner that can be used by the mine planners.     

Limit load and shakedown analysis of plastic structures under stochastic uncertainty

Problems from plastic analysis are based on the convex, linear or linearised yield/strength condition and the linear equilibrium equation for the stress (state) vector. In practice one has to take into account stochastic variations of several model parameters. Hence, in order to get robust maximum load factors, the structural analysis problem with random parameters must be replaced by an appropriate deterministic substitute problem. A direct approach is proposed based on the primary costs for missing carrying capacity and the recourse costs (e.g. costs for repair, compensation for weakness within the structure, damage, failure, etc.). Based on the mechanical survival conditions of plasticity theory, a quadratic error/loss criterion is developed. The minimum recourse costs can be determined then by solving an optimisation problem having a quadratic objective function and linear constraints. For each vector a(·) of model parameters and each design vector x, one obtains then an explicit representation of the “best” internal load distribution F^∗. Moreover, also the expected recourse costs can be determined explicitly. Consequently, an explicit stochastic nonlinear program results for finding a robust maximal load factor μ^∗. The analytical properties and possible solution procedures are discussed.     

A mathematical model for vehicle routing problem under endogenous uncertainty

In this study, a multistage stochastic programming (SP) model is presented for a variant of single-vehicle routing problem with stochastic demands from a dynamic viewpoint. It is assumed that the actual demand of a customer becomes known only when the customer is visited. This problem falls into the category of SP with endogenous uncertainty and hence, the scenario tree is decision-dependent. Therefore, nonanticipativity of decisions is ensured by conditional constraints making up a large portion of total constraints. Thus, a novel approach is proposed that considerably reduces the problem size without any effect on the solution space. Computational results on some test problems are reported.     

Robust finite-time boundedness of multi-agent systems subject to parametric uncertainties and disturbances

In this paper, we consider finite-time control problems for linear multi-agent systems subject to exogenous constant disturbances and impulses. Some sufficient conditions are obtained to ensure the finite-time boundedness of the multi-agent systems, which could be then reduced to a feasibility problem involving linear matrix inequalities. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the results.     

Combinatorial optimization under uncertainty

In this paper, the general problem of Euclidean combinatorial optimization under uncertainty is formulated for the first time and the concepts of a stochastic multiset, a multiset of fuzzy numbers, a stochastic Euclidean combinatorial set, and general Euclidean combinatorial set of fuzzy stochastic numbers that combines the properties of both types of uncertainty are introduced. __________ Translated from Kibernetika i Sistemnyi Analiz, No. 5, pp. 35–44, September–October 2008.     

Practical implementation of possibilistic probability mass functions

 Probability assessments of events are often linguistic in nature. We model them by means of possibilistic probabilities (a version of Zadeh's fuzzy probabilities with a behavioural interpretation) with a suitable shape for practical implementation (on a computer). Employing the tools of interval analysis and the theory of imprecise probabilities we argue that the verification of coherence for these possibilistic probabilities, the corrections of non-coherent to coherent possibilistic probabilities and their extension to other events and gambles can be performed by finite and exact algorithms. The model can furthermore be transformed into an imprecise first-order model, useful for decision making and statistical inference.