Prediction of sediment,particulate nutrient and dissolved nutrient concentrations in a dry tropical river to provide input to a mechanistic coastal water quality model

A Generalised Additive Modelling (GAM) approach is applied to prediction of both particulate and dissolved nutrient concentrations in a wet-tropical river (the Fitzroy River, Queensland, Australia). In addition to covariant terms considered in previous work (i.e. flow, discounted flow and a rising-falling limb term), we considered several new potential covariates: meteorological and hydrological variables that are routinely monitored, available in near-real time, and were considered to have potential predictive power. Of the additional terms considered, only flows from three tributaries of the Fitzroy River (namely, the Nogoa, Comet and Isaac Rivers) were found to significantly improve the model. Inclusion of one or more of these additional flow terms greatly improved results for dissolved nitrogen and dissolved phosphorus concentrations, which were not otherwise amenable to prediction. In particular, the Nogoa sub-catchment, dominated by pasture for cattle, was found to be important in determining dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations reaching the river mouth. This insight may direct further research, including future refinement of processed-based catchment models. The GAMs described here are used to provide near real-time river boundary conditions for a complex coupled hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model of the Great Barrier Reef Lagoon, and can be coupled with a forecasting hydrological model to allow integrated forecasting simulations of the catchment to coast system.     

Superior foetal electrocardiogram signal elicitation using a novel artificial intelligent Bayesian methodology

Innumerable casualties due to intrauterine hypoxia are a major worry during prenatal phase besides advanced patient monitoring with latest science and technology. Hence, the analysis of foetal electrocardiogram (fECG) signals is very vital in order to evaluate the foetal heart status for timely recognition of cardiac abnormalities. Regrettably, the latest technology in the cutting edge field of biomedical signal processing does not seem to yield the desired quality of fECG signals required by physicians, which is the major cause for the pathetic condition. The focus of this work is to extort non-invasive fECG signal with highest possible quality with a motive to support physicians in utilizing the methodology for the latest intrapartum monitoring technique called STAN (ST analysis) for forecasting intrapartum foetal hypoxia. However, the critical quandary is that the non-invasive fECG signals recorded from the maternal abdomen are affected by several interferences like power line interference, baseline drift interference, electrode motion interference, muscle movement interference and the maternal electrocardiogram (mECG) being the dominant interference. A novel hybrid methodology called BANFIS (Bayesian adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system) is proposed. The BANFIS includes a Bayesian filter and an adaptive neuro fuzzy filter for mECG elimination and non-linear artefacts removal to yield high quality fECG signal. Kalman filtering frame work has been utilized to estimate the nonlinear transformed mECG component in the abdominal electrocardiogram (aECG). The adaptive neuro fuzzy filter is employed to discover the nonlinearity of the nonlinear transformed version of mECG and to align the estimated mECG signal with the maternal component in the aECG signal for annulment. The outcomes of the investigation by the proposed BANFIS system proved valuable for STAN system for efficient prediction of foetal hypoxia.     

Drag coefficient of flow around a sphere: Matching asymptotically the wide trend

An empirical relationship of drag coefficient of flow around a sphere is developed for the entire range of Particle Reynolds numbers reported in the literature from Stokes regime to the condition when turbulent boundary layer prevails. The relationship is obtained using an approach to match asymptotically the wide trend of drag coefficient. The matching approach, which relies on dividing the wide trend into smaller segments that can be combined into an overall relationship, employs regression techniques and thus warrants the best-fit accuracy results. The relationship is calibrated with experimental data available in the literature covering the entire range for Reynolds numbers up to ~ 10⁶. For Reynolds values greater than 10⁶, the relationship renders a drag coefficient of 0.2. The performance of the relationship is tested and compared with other suitable models found in the literature. This relationship is also transformed into an explicit expression for settling velocity calculations.     

Generation and selection of likely interpretations during plan recognition in task-oriented consultation systems

This paper presents a mechanism which infers a user's plans from his/her utterances by directing the inference process towards the more likely interpretations of a speaker's statements among many possible interpretations. Our mechanism uses Bayesian theory of probability to assess the likelihood of an interpretation, and it complements this assessment by taking into consideration two aspects of an interpretation: its coherence and its information content. The coherence of an interpretation is determined by the relationships between the different statements in the discourse. The information content of an interpretation is a measure of how well defined the interpretation is in terms of the actions to be performed on the basis of this interpretation. This measure is used to guide the inference process towards interpretations with higher information content. The information content of an interpretation depends on the specificity and the certainty of the inferences in it, where the certainty of an inference depends on the knowledge on which the inference is based. Our mechanism has been developed for use in task-oriented consultation systems. The particular domain that we have chosen for exploration is that of travel booking.     

Makespan estimation and order acceptance in batch process industries when processing times are uncertain

Batch process industries are characterized by complex precedence relationships between operations, which renders the estimation of an acceptable workload very difficult. A detailed schedule based model can be used for this purpose, but for large problems this may require a prohibitive large amount of computation time. We propose a regression based model to estimate the makespan of a set of jobs. We extend earlier work based on deterministic processing times by considering Erlang-distributed processing times in our model. This regression-based model is used to support customer order acceptance. Three order acceptance policies are compared by means of simulation experiments: a scheduling policy, a workload policy and a regression policy. The results indicate that the performance of the regression policy can compete with the performance of the scheduling policy in situations with high variety in the job mix and high uncertainty in the processing times. Correspondence to: C.V. Ivanescu     

An evaluation system of the setting up of predictive maintenance programmes

Predictive Maintenance can provide an increase in safety, quality and availability in industrial plants. However, the setting up of a Predictive Maintenance Programme is a strategic decision that until now has lacked analysis of questions related to its setting up, management and control. In this paper, an evaluation system is proposed that carries out the decision making in relation to the feasibility of the setting up. The evaluation system uses a combination of tools belonging to operational research such as: Analytic Hierarchy Process, decision rules and Bayesian tools. This system is a help tool available to the managers of Predictive Maintenance Programmes which can both increase the number of Predictive Maintenance Programmes set up and avoid the failure of these programmes. The Evaluation System has been tested in a petrochemical plant and in a food industry.