Robust optimal operation of continuous catalytic reforming process under feedstock uncertainty

The continuous catalytic regenerative (CCR) reforming process is one of the most significant sources of hydrogen production in the petroleum refining process. However, the fluctuations in feedstock composition and flow rate could significantly affect both product distribution and energy consumption. In this study, a robust deviation criterion based multi-objective optimization approach is proposed to perform the optimal operation of CCR reformer under feedstock uncertainty, with simultaneous maximization of product yields and minimization of energy consumption. Minimax approach is adopted to handle these uncertain objectives, and the Latin hypercube sampling method is then used to calculate these robust deviation criteria. Multi-objective surrogate-based optimization methods are next introduced to effectively solve the robust operational problem with high computational cost. The level diagram method is finally utilized to assist in multi-criteria decision-making. Two robust operational optimization problems with different objectives are solved to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method for robust optimal operation of the CCR reforming process under feedstock uncertainty.     

Progressive failure analysis of notched composite plate by utilizing macro mechanics approach

In this study, gradual and sudden reduction methods were combined to simulate a progressive failure in notched composite plates using a macro mechanics approach. Using the presented method, a progressive failure is simulated based on a linear softening law prior to a catastrophic failure, and thereafter, sudden reduction methods are employed for modeling a progressive failure. This combination method significantly reduces the computational cost and is also capable of simultaneously predicting the first and last ply failures (LPFs) in composite plates. The proposed method is intended to predict the first ply failure (FPF), LPF, and dominant failure modes of carbon/epoxy and glass/epoxy notched composite plates. In addition, the effects of mechanical properties and different stacking sequences on the propagation of damage in notched composite plates were studied. The results of the presented method were compared with experimental data previously reported in the literature. By comparing the numerical and experimental data, it is revealed that the proposed method can accurately simulate the failure propagation in notched composite plates at a low computational cost.     

Phase-change regulation criterion based on size-dependent lattice distortion rate and born theory for VO2 nanomaterials

Vanadium dioxide (VO₂) is a promising thermally induced phase transition material because of the abrupt changes in electrical and optical properties. However, the high phase transition temperature of VO₂ and its unspecified modulation relationship need to be resolved urgently. Herein, we proposed a simple and precise regulation criterion for VO₂ materials based on size-dependent lattice distortion rate and Born theory. The results indicated that the application of a tensile stress changed the elastic properties of the VO₂, which promoted VO₂ phase transition, and regulated the phase transition temperature. Moreover, the specific modulation relationship between the stress and phase transition temperature of VO₂ was confirmed experimentally. These results show that our criterion provides theoretical guidance to regulate VO₂ thermally induced phase transition materials.     

Bayesian data analysis to quantify the uncertainty of intact rock strength

One of the main difficulties in the geotechnical design process lies in dealing with uncertainty. Uncertainty is associated with natural variation of properties, and the imprecision and unpredictability caused by insufficient information on parameters or models. Probabilistic methods are normally used to quantify uncertainty. However, the frequentist approach commonly used for this purpose has some drawbacks.First, it lacks a formal framework for incorporating knowledge not represented by data. Second, it has limitations in providing a proper measure of the confidence of parameters inferred from data. The Bayesian approach offers a better framework for treating uncertainty in geotechnical design. The advantages of the Bayesian approach for uncertainty quantification are highlighted in this paper with the Bayesian regression analysis of laboratory test data to infer the intact rock strength parameters σ_(ci) and m_i used in the Hoek-Brown strength criterion. Two case examples are used to illustrate different aspects of the Bayesian methodology and to contrast the approach with a frequentist approach represented by the nonlinear least squares(NLLS) method. The paper discusses the use of a Student's t-distribution versus a normal distribution to handle outliers, the consideration of absolute versus relative residuals, and the comparison of quality of fitting results based on standard errors and Bayes factors. Uncertainty quantification with confidence and prediction intervals of the frequentist approach is compared with that based on scatter plots and bands of fitted envelopes of the Bayesian approach. Finally, the Bayesian method is extended to consider two improvements of the fitting analysis. The first is the case in which the Hoek-Brown parameter, a, is treated as a variable to improve the fitting in the triaxial region. The second is the incorporation of the uncertainty in the estimation of the direct tensile strength from Brazilian test results within the overall evaluation of the intact rock strength.     

Hand hygiene and surface cleaning should be paired for prevention of fomite transmission

Touching contaminated surfaces might lead to the spread of pathogens, that is, the fomite transmission route. Although hand- and surface-hygiene practices are potentially important non-pharmaceutical interventions for the fomite route, the two interventions have been mostly studied separately in the literature. In this study, we develop a new conceptual model based on the law of mass action, analyze the temporal diffusion of contaminated surfaces and hands, and verify the model with simulations in an assumed norovirus outbreak in a buffet restaurant. A quantitative hygiene criterion is developed for the required frequency of surface disinfection and hand hygiene to control the fomite transmission in indoor environments. To eliminate surface contaminations, the product of pathogen-removal rates (including hygiene and natural death) on hands and surfaces must be no smaller than that of the human hand and surface contact frequency (ie, the net removal product must be non-negative). When the net removal product is negative, the number of contaminated surfaces and hands would show a logistic growth trend and finally approach the equilibrium. Our approach sheds light into how to optimize the combined use of hand hygiene and environmental decontamination for the best effectiveness under different settings.     

Modeling the thermal shock induced cracking in ceramics

Prediction of surface cracking in ceramics due to quenching is performed numerically using either the coupled criterion or a cohesive zone model. Under such a thermal shock, a network of short cracks with minimal spacing between them initiate and propagate until some of them stop while the others continue propagating. The numerical implementation consists of a periodic array of cracks modeled by a representative volume element. It allows crack initiation, simultaneous propagation and period doubling to be predicted. The investigation of the crack period doubling allows a precise determination of the optimal crack spacing, which decreases with an increasing thermal shock amplitude. The predicted crack spacing results are in agreement with experimental measurements.     

海水源热泵抛管式换热器管外传热特性研究

为给海水源热泵抛管式换热器的优化设计提供理论依据,通过计算流体力学(CFD)数值软件对该系统中的流动和传热过程进行数值模拟。结果表明,管内对流换热努谢尔特数Nui随抛管曲率比δ、无因次节距H_o的增大而减小;管外Nu_o随δ、H_o的增大而减小,而且δ和H_o对Nu_o的影响是复杂非线性关系。在一定模拟工况下,管外表面传热系数比管内小,热阻比管内大,换热器传热性能的决定性因素在管外,基于此,该文通过数值模拟拟合出适于南海岛礁海水源热泵抛管式换热器管外传热准则关联式。     

Hot cracking tendency test and simulation of 7075 semi-solid aluminium alloy

The hot cracking tendency of 7075 semi-solid alloy under different conditions was studied by critical diameter method. The experiment and simulation results show that the dendrite arms of the rod grow from the edge to the center. The smaller the diameter of the rod is, the more obvious the directional growth of dendrite is, and the greater the tendency of hot cracking is. Compared with ordinary melt, for semi-solid slurry, increasing mould temperature or decreasing pouring temperature can significantly decrease hot cracking tendency of 7075 alloy, decreasing hot cracking grade from 256 to 100 mm². Furthermore, based on the RDG criterion, the effects of solidification conditions on the hot cracking tendency were discussed combined with simulation. At the same time, the application and development of RDG criterion were also researched.