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1.
This work describes the procedure used to define the measurement uncertainties of horizontal two-phase air-water flow experiments conducted to determine influences due to pipe diameter on pressure gradient on such flows. These experiments were performed with 4 different pipe diameters, always using the same test section length, therefore varying the length-to-diameter (L/D) ratio. Several parameters were measured, such as volumetric/mass flow rate, pressures, temperatures and pressure drop; other parameters were calculated, such as the superficial velocities of each fluid, as well as their corresponding properties. The main parameters studied were the flow patterns for different velocity configurations and the two-phase pressure drop to be used for model improvement, thus the importance of uncertainties analysis. The sources of uncertainty were defined, detailed, systematically studied and quantified. Also, the reproducibility capacity of the experimental setups were analysed through the uncertainty analysis and proving them to be able for future similar studies. The flow maps with their uncertainties could help understand the thresholds for each defined flow pattern region, and the plots of two-phase pressure drop variation with diameter confirmed the homogeneous model as a possible approach to calculate pressure drop if the uncertainties are considered.  相似文献   
2.
Hydrogen as an energy carrier can play a significant role in reducing environmental emissions if it is produced from renewable energy resources. This research aims to assess hydrogen production from wind energy considering environmental, economic, and technical aspect for the East Azerbaijan province of Iran. The economic assessment is performed by calculation of payback period, levelized cost of hydrogen, and levelized cost of electricity. Since uncertainty in the power output of wind turbines may affect the payback period, all calculations are performed for four different turbine degradation rates. While it is common in the literature to choose the wind turbine based on a single criterion, this study implements Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) techniques for this purpose. The results of Step-wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis illustrates that economic issue is the most important criterion for this research. The results of Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment shows that Vestas V52 is the most suitable wind turbine for Ahar and Sarab cities, while Eovent EVA120 H-Darrieus is a better choice for other stations. The most suitable location for wind power generation is found to be Ahar, where it is estimated to annually generate 2914.8 kWh of electricity at the price of 0.045 $/kWh, and 47.2 tons of hydrogen at the price of 1.38 $/kg, which result in 583 tons of CO2 emission reduction.  相似文献   
3.
The evaluation of the volumetric accuracy of a machine tool is an open challenge in the industry, and a wide variety of technical solutions are available in the market and at research level. All solutions have advantages and disadvantages concerning which errors can be measured, the achievable uncertainty, the ease of implementation, possibility of machine integration and automation, the equipment cost and the machine occupation time, and it is not always straightforward which option to choose for each application. The need to ensure accuracy during the whole lifetime of the machine and the availability of monitoring systems developed following the Industry 4.0 trend are pushing the development of measurement systems that can be integrated in the machine to perform semi-automatic verification procedures that can be performed frequently by the machine user to monitor the condition of the machine. Calibrated artefact based calibration and verification solutions have an advantage in this field over laser based solutions in terms of cost and feasibility of machine integration, but they need to be optimized for each machine and customer requirements to achieve the required calibration uncertainty and minimize machine occupation time.This paper introduces a digital twin-based methodology to simulate all relevant effects in an artefact-based machine tool calibration procedure, from the machine itself with its expected error ranges, to the artefact geometry and uncertainty, artefact positions in the workspace, probe uncertainty, compensation model, etc. By parameterizing all relevant variables in the design of the calibration procedure, this simulation methodology can be used to analyse the effect of each design variable on the error mapping uncertainty, which is of great help in adapting the procedure to each specific machine and user requirements. The simulation methodology and the analysis possibilities are illustrated by applying it on a 3-axis milling machine tool.  相似文献   
4.
Model‐based optimization techniques play a key role in achieving a sustainable operation of biochemical processes. Models are an approximation of the real process under study, hence, uncertainty is inherently present and for a sustainable process operation this uncertainty should be accounted for. In practice, optimality with respect to different conflicting objectives is required and multi‐objective optimization is a valuable tool. In this article the sigma point approach is applied to account for parametric uncertainty in the frame of interactive multi‐objective bioprocess optimization.  相似文献   
5.
国内外学者针对井壁稳定的问题已经开展了较为深入的研究,建立了多种经验模型、解析模型和数值模拟方法,但针对输入参数的不确定性及其对井壁稳定分析结果影响的研究则较少、认识尚不明确。为此,以井壁稳定力学解析模型为基础,结合可靠度理论下的一次二阶矩方法,建立了基于可靠度理论的井壁失稳风险评价方法,研究了不同钻井液当量密度下的井壁稳定可靠概率,并考察了参数不确定程度对井壁稳定分析结果的影响规律。研究结果表明:①井壁稳定输入参数的分布规律基本满足正态分布,变异系数越高,则样本数据的不确定性越强,对井壁稳定分析结果的影响将更加显著;②随着钻井液当量密度的增加,井壁垮塌的概率逐渐降低,但井壁被压漏的概率也逐渐增加,在井壁坍塌和破裂可靠概率曲线交点以下能够找到一个合适的安全窗口;③各地质因素不确定性对井眼稳定的影响顺序为:地应力孔隙压力岩石强度。结论认为,在井壁稳定分析中准确确定地应力的大小、降低其不确定程度的影响,可以提高井壁稳定评价的准确性。  相似文献   
6.
7.
One of the main difficulties in the geotechnical design process lies in dealing with uncertainty. Uncertainty is associated with natural variation of properties, and the imprecision and unpredictability caused by insufficient information on parameters or models. Probabilistic methods are normally used to quantify uncertainty. However, the frequentist approach commonly used for this purpose has some drawbacks.First, it lacks a formal framework for incorporating knowledge not represented by data. Second, it has limitations in providing a proper measure of the confidence of parameters inferred from data. The Bayesian approach offers a better framework for treating uncertainty in geotechnical design. The advantages of the Bayesian approach for uncertainty quantification are highlighted in this paper with the Bayesian regression analysis of laboratory test data to infer the intact rock strength parameters σ_(ci) and m_i used in the Hoek-Brown strength criterion. Two case examples are used to illustrate different aspects of the Bayesian methodology and to contrast the approach with a frequentist approach represented by the nonlinear least squares(NLLS) method. The paper discusses the use of a Student's t-distribution versus a normal distribution to handle outliers, the consideration of absolute versus relative residuals, and the comparison of quality of fitting results based on standard errors and Bayes factors. Uncertainty quantification with confidence and prediction intervals of the frequentist approach is compared with that based on scatter plots and bands of fitted envelopes of the Bayesian approach. Finally, the Bayesian method is extended to consider two improvements of the fitting analysis. The first is the case in which the Hoek-Brown parameter, a, is treated as a variable to improve the fitting in the triaxial region. The second is the incorporation of the uncertainty in the estimation of the direct tensile strength from Brazilian test results within the overall evaluation of the intact rock strength.  相似文献   
8.
目的 评定采用高效液相色谱-电感耦合等离子体质谱(High performance liquid chromatography combined with inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry, HPLC-ICP-MS)法检测鱼肉中甲基汞、乙基汞含量的不确定度。方法 分析整个检测过程中存在的不确定度因素,建立数学模型,分别从称样量、稀释体积、标准溶液、标准曲线拟合以及方法回收率等几个方面进行分析,对测量结果的不确定度进行评定。结果 影响测量结果的不确定度主要来源于样品前处理和标准曲线拟合。鱼肉样品中结果表示分别为:甲基汞含量(0.48±0.046) mg/kg;乙基汞含量为(0.34±0.051) mg/kg, k=2。结论 该方法准确度高,适用于鱼肉中甲基汞、乙基汞的检测,为提高数据准确性提供有效指导。  相似文献   
9.
This paper deals with the efficient computation of solutions of robust nonlinear model predictive control problems that are formulated using multi-stage stochastic programming via the generation of a scenario tree. Such a formulation makes it possible to consider explicitly the concept of recourse, which is inherent to any receding horizon approach, but it results in large-scale optimization problems. One possibility to solve these problems in an efficient manner is to decompose the large-scale optimization problem into several subproblems that are iteratively modified and repeatedly solved until a solution to the original problem is achieved. In this paper we review the most common methods used for such decomposition and apply them to solve robust nonlinear model predictive control problems in a distributed fashion. We also propose a novel method to reduce the number of iterations of the coordination algorithm needed for the decomposition methods to converge. The performance of the different approaches is evaluated in extensive simulation studies of two nonlinear case studies.  相似文献   
10.
This work studies the supply allocation problem, using a Stackelberg game, for an established timberlands supply chain with an additional decision of new biorefinery investments. In a timberlands system, harvester and manufacturer decision makers have separate objectives to maximize their respective profits. This interaction is represented with a turn based Stackelberg game. The harvesters decide first on the quantity harvested, and the manufacturers decide on how much to utilize. This game is modeled with a bilevel mathematical program. The novel feature of this paper's bilevel formulation is the inclusion of parametric uncertainty in a two stage model. The first stage problem involves logistical decisions around biorefinery investments, such as location and capacity, while the second stage problem involves a bilevel timberlands model with parameter uncertainty. Studying this problem formulation revealed interesting insights for solving multiperiod problems with bilevel stages as well as the decision maker's behavior for the timberlands model.  相似文献   
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