Influencer-defaulter mutation-based optimization algorithms for predicting electricity prices

Efficient electricity price forecasting plays a significant role in our society. In this paper, a novel influencer-defaulter mutation (IDM) mutation operator has been proposed. The IDM operator has been combined with six well-known optimization algorithms to create mutated optimization algorithms whose performance has been tested on twenty-four standard benchmark functions. Further, the artificial neural network is integrated with mutated optimization algorithms to solve the electricity price prediction problem. The policymakers can identify appropriate variables based on the predicted prices to help future market planning. The statistical results prove the efficacy of the IDM operator on the recent optimization algorithms.     

高面板坝全寿命周期变形控制方法及应用

高面板坝的变形对面板的安全运行有着特别重要的影响，国内外已建的高面板坝工程中，因坝体变形大导致防渗面板挤压破损，坝体渗漏量大的实例较多，不得不降低水库水位进行修复处理，造成较大的经济损失乃至给大坝的长期运行留下安全隐患。通过发生挤压破损的实例分析，发现变形控制缺乏系统性是发生面板挤压破损的主要因素，为预防面板破损，系统提出了“控制坝体总变形，转化有害变形，适应纵向变形”的坝体变形控制方法，并在使用软硬岩混合料筑坝的董箐面板堆石坝中得到的应用，取得了良好效果，该工程运行至今达十余年，未见面板有挤压破损迹象，该方法对建设200 m以上乃至300 m级超高面板坝具有重要借鉴意义。     

非常规气藏储层改造体积评价方法研究

为精确描述非常规气藏压裂后的复杂流动特征及定量评价储层改造体积（SRV），利用自主研发的缝网重构算法“破裂树生长法”建立压后缝网模型，并以此为基础提出了使用拟稳态流动时特定的压力等值线来确定SRV范围的定量评价方法，最后以长宁201井区为例进行了矿场实例分析。该方法根据微地震监测点的位置，重构出微裂缝网的连通关系。在复杂微裂缝网的基础上建立离散裂缝地质模型并进行生产数值模拟，根据数值模拟结果的压力分布精确划定SRV的范围。利用该方法计算出长宁201井区的SRV体积为0.052 1 km3，以该缝网模型的数值模拟产量预测结果符合实际生产规律，方法实用性较好。     

Predictive environmental hydrogen embrittlement on fracture toughness of commercial ferritic steels with hydrogen-modified fracture strain model

In this work, a practical numerical model with few parameters was proposed for the prediction of environmental hydrogen embrittlement. The proposed method adopts hydrogen enhanced plasticity-based mechanism in a fracture strain model to describe hydrogen embrittlement. Fracture toughness degradation of three commercial steels SA372J70, AISI4130 and X80 in high pressure hydrogen environment were investigated. Firstly, governing equations for hydrogen distribution and material damage evolution was established. Hydrogen enhanced localized flow softening effect was coupled within fracture strain dependency on stress triaxiality. Then, the numerical implementation and identification process of model parameters was described. Model parameters of the investigated steels were determined based on experiment results from literatures. Finally, with the calibrated model, fracture toughness reduction of the steels was predicted in a wide range of hydrogen pressure. The prediction results were compared with experimental results. Reasonable accuracy was reached. The proposed method is an attempt to reach balance between physical accurate prediction and engineering practicality. It is promising to provide a simplified numerical tool for the design and fit for service evaluation of hydrogen storage vessels.     

Experimental study and model predictions on helium release in an enclosure with single or multiple vents

This paper presents experiments performed at Canadian Nuclear Laboratories (CNL) to examine the dispersion behaviour of helium in a polycarbonate enclosure that was representative of a residential parking garage. The purpose was to gain a better understanding of the effect of buoyancy- or wind-driven natural ventilation on hydrogen dispersion behaviour. Although hydrogen dispersion studies have been reported extensively in the literature, gaps still exist in predictive methods for hazard analysis. Helium, a simulant for hydrogen, was injected near the centre of the floor with a flow rate ranging from 5 to 75 standard litres per minute through an upward-facing nozzle, resulting in an injection Richardson number ranging between 10^?1 and 10². The location of the nozzle varied from the bottom of the enclosure to near the ceiling to examine the impact of the nozzle elevation on the development of a stratified layer in the upper region of the enclosure. When the injection nozzle was placed at a sufficiently low elevation, the vertical helium profile always consisted of a homogenous layer at the top overlaying a stratified layer at the bottom. To simulate outdoor environmental conditions, a fan was placed in front of each vent to examine the effect of opposing or assisting wind on the dispersion. The helium transients in the uniform layer predicted with analytical models were in good agreement with the measured transients for most tests. Model improvements are required for adequately predicting transients with primarily stratified profiles or strong opposing wind.     

Combined effect of channel to rib width ratio and gas diffusion layer deformation on high temperature – Polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell performance

The present study investigates the combined influence of Channel to Rib Width (CRW) ratio and clamping pressure on the structure and performance of High Temperature-Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell (HT-PEMFC) using a three-dimensional numerical model developed previously. It also considers the impact of interfacial contact resistance between the Gas Diffusion Layer (GDL) and Bipolar Plate (BPP). The structural analysis of the single straight channel HT-PEMFC geometry shows that the von-Mises stress greatly increases in the GDL under the ribs as the CRW ratio increases resulting in considerably high deformation. The cell performance analysis depicts the significance of ohmic resistance and concentration polarization for different CRW ratios, particularly at higher operating current densities. However, in low to medium current density regions, the CRW ratio has little influence on cell performance. A substantial impact on the species, overpotential, and current distributions is observed. The findings also reveal that the CRW ratio significantly affects the temperature distribution in the cell.     

有砟轨道路基翻浆冒泥模型试验系统的研发与应用

为研究既有线有砟轨道路基的翻浆冒泥机理，自主研发了一套能够模拟循环荷载–湿化耦合作用的模型试验系统。模型试样直径500 mm，由厚度分别为350 mm的路基土和200 mm的道砟组成，整个试样在高强度透明有机玻璃模型筒中制备完成。模型试验系统配备有监测荷载、位移、体积含水率和孔隙水压力的4种传感器，并通过高清相机对颗粒迁移过程进行图像捕捉。基于所研发的试验系统，针对辛泰铁路典型翻浆冒泥病害路段土样，开展翻浆冒泥模型试验。试验结果表明：动孔隙水压力是导致翻浆冒泥病害产生的关键因素。随着体积含水率的增加，动孔隙水压力引起的颗粒迁移量逐渐增加；在饱和状态下，会引起大量颗粒迁移，翻浆冒泥现象显著。试验结束时，道砟污染指数达到25%，在实际工程中已严重影响铁路的正常运营，有必要对污染道砟进行换填。     

一种用于电气设备状态监测的新式FBG传感器北大核心CSCD

为了监测绕组变压器的静态应力场和发生短路等故障时的动态应力变化,设计了一种用于电气设备状态监测的新式FBG传感器。该传感器由聚醚醚酮材料封装的FBG构成,通过内部圆锥形空腔结构实现将轴向应力集中于FBG敏感位置。通过仿真对不同压力强度下传感器结构的应力场部分及形变趋势进行了计算与分析,论证了设计的合理性。实验分别对静态载荷和动态冲击进行测试,结果显示,在静态压载测试中,当100 N相似文献   

Removing data and using metafounders alleviates biases for all traits in Lacaune dairy sheep predictions

Bias in dairy genetic evaluations, when it exists, has to be understood and properly addressed. The origin of biases is not always clear. We analyzed 40 yr of records from the Lacaune dairy sheep breeding program to evaluate the extent of bias, assess possible corrections, and emit hypotheses on its origin. The data set included 7 traits (milk yield, fat and protein contents, somatic cell score, teat angle, udder cleft, and udder depth) with records from 600,000 to 5 million depending on the trait, ～1,900,000 animals, and ～5,900 genotyped elite artificial insemination rams. For the ～8% animals with missing sire, we fit 25 unknown parent groups. We used the linear regression method to compare “partial” and “whole” predictions of young rams before and after progeny testing, with 7 cut-off points, and we obtained estimates of their bias, (over)dispersion, and accuracy in early proofs. We tried (1) several scenarios as follows: multiple or single trait, the “official” (routine) evaluation, which is a mixture of both single and multiple trait, and “deletion” of data before 1990; and (2) several models as follows: BLUP and single-step genomic (SSG)BLUP with fixed unknown parent groups or metafounders, where, for metafounders, their relationship matrix gamma was estimated using either a model for inbreeding trend, or base allele frequencies estimated by peeling. The estimate of gamma obtained by modeling the inbreeding trend resulted in an estimated increase of inbreeding, based on markers, faster than the pedigree-based one. The estimated genetic trends were similar for most models and scenarios across all traits, but were shrunken when gamma was estimated by peeling. This was due to shrinking of the estimates of metafounders in the latter case. Across scenarios, all traits showed bias, generally as an overestimate of genetic trend for milk yield and an underestimate for the other traits. As for the slope, it showed overdispersion of estimated breeding values for all traits. Using multiple-trait models slightly reduced the overestimate of genetic trend and the overdispersion, as did including genomic information (i.e., SSGBLUP) when the gamma matrix was estimated by the model for inbreeding trend. However, only deletion of historical data before 1990 resulted in elimination of both kind of biases. The SSGBLUP resulted in more accurate early proofs than BLUP for all traits. We considered that a snowball effect of small errors in each genetic evaluation, combined with selection, may have resulted in biased evaluations. Improving statistical methods reduced some bias but not all, and a simple solution for this data set was to remove historical records.     

Liquefaction behavior of fiber-reinforced calcareous sands in unidirectional and multidirectional simple shear tests

A study on the liquefaction resistance of calcareous sands reinforced with polypropylene fibers was reported. Stress-controlled cyclic simple shear tests were conducted on specimens prepared at a relative density of 50%, with and without fiber reinforcements. The liquefaction behavior was investigated by considering the effects of fiber contents ranging from 0% to 1%, fiber lengths varying from 3 mm to 12 mm and loading patterns. The results indicated that increasing fiber content and fiber length resulted in a decrease in the deformation, a reduction in pore pressure accumulation rate, and improved the liquefaction resistance of calcareous sands. Additionally, the risk of soil liquefaction could be significantly reduced when the fiber content was greater than 0.8%. The multidirectional loading had a considerable effect in reducing the liquefaction resistance compared to unidirectional loading. Further, the stiffness degradation of calcareous sands decreased with increasing fiber content and fiber length. The pore pressure generated in the cyclic tests was analyzed and was found to be affected by fiber content. A pore pressure prediction model was proposed to obtain the pore pressure characteristics of fiber-reinforced calcareous sands under various fiber content conditions.