基于VMD和BSA-KELM的高陡边坡位移预测模型研究

边坡位移的时间序列曲线存在复杂的非线性特性,传统的预测模型精度不足以满足预测要求。为此提出了基于变分模态分解的鸟群优化-核极限学习机的预测模型,并用于河北省某水泥厂的边坡位移预测。该方法首先采用VMD把边坡位移序列分解为一系列的有限带宽的子序列,再对各子序列分别采用相空间重构并用核极限学习机预测,采用鸟群算法优化相空间重构的嵌入维度和KELM中惩罚系数和核参数三个数值,以取得最优预测模型。最后将各个子序列预测值叠加,得到边坡位移的最终预测值。结果表明：和KELM、BSA-KELM、EEMD-BSA-KELM模型相比,基于VMD的BSA-KELM预测精度更高,为边坡位移的预测提供一种有效的方法。     

基于差频检测技术的高速AD单粒子翻转评估方法研究

本文基于差频检测的原理，提出一种在高频动态输入模式下，对高速高精度模数转换器（AD）的抗单粒子翻转效应进行评估的测试方法，并以一款8位3 GSPS高速AD为测试对象，设计开发了一套高速AD单粒子翻转效应测试系统，对目标器件进行了重离子试验。通过对试验结果的图像和错误数据进行分析，评估参试器件的抗辐照性能参数，为抗辐照高速高精度AD的加固设计提供数据支撑。     

Using a Discrete-Event System Specifications (DEVS) for designing a Modelica compiler

We introduce a new architecture for the design of a tool for modeling and simulation of continuous and hybrid systems. The environment includes a compiler based on Modelica, a modular and a causal standard specification language for physical systems modeling (the tool supports models composed using certain component classes defined in the Modelica Standard Library, and the instantiation, parameterization and connection of these MSL components are described using a subset of Modelica). Models are defined in Modelica and are translated into DEVS models. DEVS theory (originally defined for modeling and simulation of discrete event systems) was extended in order to permit defining these of models. The different steps in the compiling process are show, including how to model these dynamic systems under the discrete event abstraction, including examples of model simulation with their execution results.     

四川盆地上三叠统划分对比研究

四川盆地上三叠统对比长期存在混乱，给盆地整体评价带来困难。通过岩石地层、地震地层、事件地层及高分辨率旋回地层等多种方法讨论了须家河组与香溪群各岩性段的对比关系，得出了全盆地上三叠统的对比关系；指出须四段底可近似看成等时界面；须家河组下部地层自西向东、向南逐层超覆在雷口坡组之上，上部地层在盆地西北部自东南向西北方向剥蚀层位渐次变老。文章建议四川盆地上三叠统废除“香溪群”，统一使用“须家河组”，以利于对全盆地上三叠统进行油气资源整体评价与深化研究。     

风险树分析在钻井工程事故中的应用

结合概率统计知识，利用风险树分析引发钻井工程事故的顶事件，重点讨论各底事件的相互联系及对系统的影响程度，从而寻找系统的漏洞，分析顶事件的发生概率，在此基础上采取相应的纠正措施，为最大程度地减少钻井工程事故的发生及其损失提供理论依据。     

网络安全事件的关联分析方法的比较研究

随着当前攻击手段和技术的日益复杂化,一次入侵事件往往需要多个步骤才能完成,这些步骤都是彼此相关的。但是传统的入侵检测集中于检测底层的入侵或异常,所检测到的结果也仅仅是一次完整入侵的一部分,所以不能将不同的报警结合起来以发现入侵的逻辑步骤或者入侵背后的攻击策略。关联分析技术将不同分析器上产生的报警进行融合与关联分析,极大地减少了报警的数量,降低了入侵检测的误报率,并且适当的减少了入侵检测的漏报率。文中在对网络安全事件关联分析方法的系统结构进行分析后,着重介绍了当前比较流行的几种网络安全事件关联分析方法,最后对各种方法进行了比较研究。     

Life is pleasant--and memory helps to keep it that way!

People's recollections of the past are often positively biased. This bias has 2 causes. The 1st cause lies in people's perceptions of events. The authors review the results of several studies and present several new comparative analyses of these studies, all of which indicate that people perceive events in their lives to more often be pleasant than unpleasant. A 2nd cause is the fading affect bias: The affect associated with unpleasant events fades faster than the affect associated with pleasant events. The authors review the results of several studies documenting this bias and present evidence indicating that dysphoria (mild depression) disrupts such bias. Taken together, this evidence suggests that autobiographical memory represents an important exception to the theoretical claim that bad is stronger than good. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

On the Way to Assess Emotions in Animals: Do Lambs (Ovis aries) Evaluate an Event Through Its Suddenness, Novelty, or Unpredictability?

Appraisal theories provide a framework that gives insight into emotions and could allow comparisons across species. According to these theories, events are first evaluated on their suddenness, novelty, and unpredictability. The authors examined the ability of lambs (Ovis aries) to evaluate an event according to these 3 criteria through 3 tests. The lambs responded to suddenness with a startle response coupled with an increase in heart rate and to novelty with an orientation response coupled with an increase of vagal activity. There was no clear evidence that lambs can detect the predictability of an event. Those results support the usefulness of appraisal theories to assess emotion in animals. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

网络管理中事件关联检测机制的研究

网络事件的关联检测是网络管理需要解决的一个关键问题,本文根据分布式网络管理的特点,首次明确定义了网络事件的基本关联关系,在此基础上提出了一种基于Petri Net的事件关联检测机制,实现了基于事件内容的细粒度关联检测,并且在事件检测中充分考虑了时间因素,有效地提高了事件关联检测的准确性。     

30.4 nm光电成像系统分辨率的初步实验研究

本文基于微通道板MCP(Microchannel Plate)探测器件设计一套成像系统，用于对波长为30．4nm的极紫外EUV(Extreme Ultraviolet)光进行成像．结果获得了一宽度为3mm的狭缝的像，实验测得490μm的成像系统的空间分辨率，并分析了影响系统分辨率的各种因素及为提高系统分辨率所应采取的措施．