Deterministic and probabilistic ship pitch prediction using a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing,reinforcement learning and improved QRNN

The deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship motion is important for safe navigation and stable real-time operational control of ships at sea. However, the volatility and randomness of ship motion, the non-adaptive nature of single predictors and the poor coverage of quantile regression pose serious challenges to uncertainty prediction, making research in this field limited. In this paper, a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing, reinforcement learning and improved quantile regression neural network (QRNN) is proposed to explore the deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship pitch motion. To validate the performance of the proposed multi-predictor integrated prediction model, an experimental study is conducted with three sets of actual ship longitudinal motions during sea trials in the South China Sea. The experimental results indicate that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the proposed model of deterministic prediction are 0.0254°, 0.0359°, and 0.0188°, respectively. Taking series #2 as an example, the prediction interval coverage probabilities (PICPs) of the proposed model of probability predictions at 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels (CLs) are 0.9400, 0.9800, and 1.0000, respectively. This study signifies that the proposed model can provide trusted deterministic predictions and can effectively quantify the uncertainty of ship pitch motion, which has the potential to provide practical support for ship early warning systems.     

广义正交码索引调制系统的性能分析

摘 要：为了提高码索引调制（code index modulation，CIM）系统的传输效率，提出了一种具有更低复杂度的单输入单输出（single input single output，SISO）的广义正交码索引调制（generalized orthogonal code index modulation，GQCIM）系统。CIM 系统使用扩频码和星座符号传输信息，但只能激活两个扩频码索引和一个调制符号。而 GQCIM 系统以一种新颖的方式克服了只激活一个调制符号的限制，同时充分利用了调制符号的正交性，增加扩频码索引以传输更多的额外信息位，提高了系统的传输效率。此外，分析了GQCIM系统的理论性能，推导了误码率性能的上界。通过蒙特卡罗仿真验证了GQCIM系统的性能，对比发现GQCIM系统的理论和仿真性能一致。而且在相同的传输效率下，结果显示GQCIM系统的性能优于同样具有正交性的调制系统，如广义码索引调制（generalized code index modulation，GCIM）系统、CIM系统、码索引调制-正交空间调制（code index modulation aided quadrature spatial modulation，CIM-QSM）系统、码索引调制-正交空间调制（code index modulation aided spatial modulation，CIM-SM）系统、脉冲索引调制（pulse index modulation，PIM）系统。     

Ultimate bearing capacity of strip footing resting on clay soil mixed with tire-derived aggregates

This study investigated the use of recycled tire-derived aggregate (TDA) mixed with kaolin as a method of increasing the ultimate bearing capacity ( UBC) of a strip footing. Thirteen 1g physical modeling tests were prepared in a rigid box of 0.6 m × 0.9 m in plan and 0.6 m in height. During sample preparation, 0%, 20%, 40%, or 60% (by weight) of powdery, shredded, small-sized granular (G 1–4 mm) or large-sized granular (G 5–8 mm) TDA was mixed with the kaolin. A strip footing was then placed on the stabilized kaolin and was caused to fail under stress-controlled conditions to determine the UBC. A rigorous 3D finite element analysis was developed in Optum G-3 to determine the UBC values based on the experimental test results. The experimental results showed that, except for the 20% powdery TDA, the TDA showed an increase in the UBC of the strip footing. When kaolin mixed with 20% G (5–8 mm), the UBC showed a threefold increase over that for the unreinforced case. The test with 20% G (1–4 mm) recorded the highest subgrade modulus. It was observed that the UBC calculated using finite element modeling overestimated the experimental UBC by an average of 9%.     

能源土边界面模型的应力更新算法及算例分析

水合物的存在会显著影响能源土的刚度、峰值强度与剪胀性。针对已有能源土模型的不足，结合边界面模型的建模思想，构建一个新的能源土边界面模型，模型参数较少，能够恰当反映能源土的应力-应变关系。计算能源土变形问题的核心在于正确积分塑性本构方程，应用完全隐式回退Euler算法，建立模型应力及塑性内变量的更新公式，并给出显式的一致性切线模量表达式。基于ABAQUS软件提供的二次开发接口，编写模型的用户材料子程序，应用已有试验数据验证程序正确性。最后应用开发的子程序对能源土的平面应变试验进行模拟，分析水合物饱和度对剪切带倾角与孔隙比的影响。     

The generalized Dice similarity measures for Pythagorean fuzzy multiple attribute group decision making

The Pythagorean fuzzy set (PFS) is characterized by two functions expressing the degree of membership and the degree of nonmembership, which square sum of them is equal or less than 1. It was proposed as a generalization of a fuzzy set to deal with indeterminate and inconsistent information. In this study, we shall present some novel Dice similarity measures of PFSs and the generalized Dice similarity measures of PFSs and indicates that the Dice similarity measures and asymmetric measures (projection measures) are the special cases of the generalized Dice similarity measures in some parameter values. Then, we propose the generalized Dice similarity measures-based multiple attribute group decision-making models with Pythagorean fuzzy information. Then, we apply the generalized Dice similarity measures between PFSs to multiple attribute group decision making. Finally, an illustrative example is given to demonstrate the efficiency of the similarity measures for selecting the desirable ERP system.     

Transport Map sampling with PGD model reduction for fast dynamical Bayesian data assimilation

The motivation of this work is to address real-time sequential inference of parameters with a full Bayesian formulation. First, the proper generalized decomposition (PGD) is used to reduce the computational evaluation of the posterior density in the online phase. Second, Transport Map sampling is used to build a deterministic coupling between a reference measure and the posterior measure. The determination of the transport maps involves the solution of a minimization problem. As the PGD model is quasi-analytical and under a variable separation form, the use of gradient and Hessian information speeds up the minimization algorithm. Eventually, uncertainty quantification on outputs of interest of the model can be easily performed due to the global feature of the PGD solution over all coordinate domains. Numerical examples highlight the performance of the method.     

On global Hessenberg based methods for solving Sylvester matrix equations

In the first part of this paper, we investigate the use of Hessenberg-based methods for solving the Sylvester matrix equation $AX+XB=C$. To achieve this goal, the Sylvester form of the global generalized Hessenberg process is presented. Using this process, different methods based on a Petrov–Galerkin or on a minimal norm condition are derived. In the second part, we focus on the SGl-CMRH method which is based on the Sylvester form of the Hessenberg process with pivoting strategy combined with a minimal norm condition. In order to accelerate the SGl-CMRH method, a preconditioned framework of this method is also considered. It includes both fixed and flexible variants of the SGl-CMRH method. Moreover, the connection between the flexible preconditioned SGl-CMRH method and the fixed one is studied and some upper bounds for the residual norm are obtained. In particular, application of the obtained theoretical results is investigated for the special case of solving linear systems of equations with several right-hand sides. Finally, some numerical experiments are given in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.     

Recursive generalized extended least squares and RML algorithms for identification of bilinear systems with ARMA noise

Bilinear systems are considered as a particular class of nonlinear systems including the state variables which are typically used for online identification. By using a recursive identification method and the maximum likelihood principle, this paper presents two recursive-based algorithms to identify the parameters of bilinear in parameter systems with ARMA noise. In this regard, recursive generalized extended least squares (RGELS) and recursive Maximum Likelihood (RML) algorithms have been proposed for identification of bilinear systems. These algorithms can be used as an alternative choice in system identification with acceptable performance. The proposed algorithms estimate the correlated noise parameters with high accuracy by making full use of the measurement data. Simulation results indicate that the proposed algorithms are effective for online identification of bilinear in parameter systems with high convergence speed.