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1.
Lake Van in eastern Turkey has been subject to water level rise during the last decade and, consequently, the low-lying areas along the shore are inundated, giving problems to local administrators, governmental officials, irrigation activities and to people's property. Therefore, forecasting water levels of the Lake has started to attract the attention of the researchers in the country. An attempt has been made to use artificial neural networks (ANN) for modeling the temporal change water levels of Lake Van. A back-propagation algorithm is used for training. The study indicated that neural networks can successfully model the complex relationship between the rainfall and consecutive water levels. Three different cases were considered with the network trained for different arrangements of input nodes, such as current and antecedent lake levels, rainfall amounts. All of the three models yields relatively close results to each other. The neural network model is simpler and more reliable than the conventional methods such as autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA), and autoregressive moving average with exogenous input (ARMAX) models. It is shown that the relative errors for these two different models, are below 10% which is acceptable for engineering studies. In this study, dynamic changes of the lake level are evaluated. In contrast to classical methods, ANNs do not require strict assumptions such as linearity, normality, homoscadacity etc.  相似文献
2.
Lake Qinghai, the largest saline lake with an area of 4,260 km2 (2000) and average depth of 21 m (1985) in West China, has experienced severe decline in water level in recent decades. This study aimed to investigate water balance of the lake and identify the causes for the decline in lake level. There was a 3.35-m decline in water level with an average decreasing rate of 8.0 cm year−1 between 1959 and 2000. The lake water balance showed that mean annual precipitation between 1959 and 2000 over the lake was 357 ± 10 mm, evaporation was 924 ± 10 mm, surface runoff water inflow was 348 ± 21 mm, groundwater inflow was 138 mm ± 9 and the change in lake level was −80 ± 31 mm. The variation of lake level was highly positively correlated to surface runoff and precipitation and negatively to evaporation, the correlation coefficients were 0.89, 0.81 and −0.66, respectively. Water consumption by human activities accounts for 1% of the evaporation loss of the lake, implying that water consumption by human activities has little effect on lake level decline. Most dramatic decline in lake level occurred in the warm and dry years, and moderate decline in the cold and dry years, and relatively slight decline in the warm and wet years, therefore, the trend of cold/warm and dry climate in recent decades may be the main reasons for the decline in lake level.  相似文献
3.
Hydrologic impacts of climate change are regularly assessed with hydrologic models that use air temperature as a proxy to compute potential evapotranspiration (PET). This approach is taken in the Large Basin Runoff Model (LBRM), which has been used several times for calculation of the runoff from the terrestrial part of the Great Lakes basin under climate change scenarios, with the results widely cited. However, a balance between incoming and outgoing energy, including the latent heat of evaporation, is a fundamental requirement for a land surface, and is not enforced under this approach. For calculating PET and evapotranspiration (ET) in climate change scenarios, we use an energy budget-based approach to adjusting the PET as an alternative that better satisfies conservation of energy. Using this new method, the increase in ET under enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations has reduced magnitude compared to that projected using the air temperature proxy. This results in either a smaller decrease in net basin supply and smaller drop in lake levels than using the temperature proxy, or a reversal to increased net basin supply and higher lake levels. An additional reason not to rely on a temperature proxy relation is that observational evidence demonstrates that the correlation between air temperature and ET (or PET) is restricted to the mean annual cycle of these variables. This brings into question the validity of air temperature as a proxy for PET when considering non-annual variability and secular changes in the climate regime.  相似文献
4.
5.
The changes of environmental factors such as snow cover, vegetation and hydrologic regime of lakes can reflect ecosystem responses to changing climate. A series of satellite imagery-based environmental data archives including variations in snow cover, vegetation phenology and lake level were mapped in the Nam Co Lake Basin for the period 2000–2009. Results of the synthesis indicate that throughout this period, the average annual snow cover was 19.87% of the total basin, and there is an obvious relation between the elevation and a clear decreasing southeast–northwest trend in snow-cover persistence. Snow mainly happens from October to May. The multi-year mean water storage of Nam Co Lake is 86.40 × 109 m3, with a lake level increase of approximately 2.06 m during the study period. Vegetation phenology showed obvious variation with advanced start of season (SOS) and slightly extended duration of season (DOS). The mean DOS for the Nam Co Lake Basin was 154 days from 2000 to 2009. Affected by air temperature, the SOS dates coincided with snowmelt. The seasonal-variability of climate factors was also studied. The satellite-derived continuous and multiple datasets offer the advantage of monitoring the temporal and spatial trends of each of these metrics and mapping extensive, remote in mountainous areas with no in-situ data such as represented by the Tibetan Plateau.  相似文献
6.
In 2013 the Laurentian Great Lakes are at historically low levels; but they will undoubtedly rise again as they always have in an ongoing pattern of seasonal, annual and decadal fluctuations. Those fluctuations, coupled with other physical dynamics unique to the Great Lakes system, will continue to shift shorelines lake-ward and land-ward dramatically over time, perhaps more so because of increased storminess from climate change. These shifting shores implicate legal doctrines that attempt to balance public interests and private property rights at the shore, and they complicate the Great Lakes states' efforts to effectively and fairly manage their Great Lakes shorelands. One challenge comes from using an elevation-based standard to mark ordinary high water, a method that is difficult conceptually to administer and that yields multiple marks over time. We describe briefly Great Lakes shoreline dynamics and the application of state Public Trust Doctrines to those shorelines, and we discuss in detail recent litigation in Michigan regarding use of an elevation-based standard to mark ordinary high water, illustrating the inherent problems with that standard. We conclude that the elevation-based standard should be abandoned, or if not abandoned applied in a manner to adequately safeguard public trust shorelands.  相似文献
7.
Water-level fluctuations are critical for maintaining the diversity and resultant habitat value of wetland plant communities in the Laurentian Great Lakes. However, activation of the seed bank can also provide an opportunity for invasive species to displace native species, as occurred when common reed, Phragmites australis, expanded across many wetlands after lake levels receded following highs in 1997. Timing of the invasion process is not clear, however, as Phragmites propagules had to be present to exploit the exposed soils. A data set from Dickinson Island on the St. Clair River delta collected in 1988–1991, 1996 during a previous lake-level decline was analyzed to document prior Phragmites growth, as well as overall seed-bank response. Above-ground biomass was determined for all plants each year in randomly placed quadrats in a 5-ha area exposed when lake levels decreased by 0.65 m from 1986 to 1988. A total of 38 taxa were identified in 1988, but the number decreased, along with biomass of many species, as canopy-dominating Typha angustifolia and Phragmites increased in later years. Although Phragmites did not expand greatly until after the decline from the 1997 high, it likely inoculated the area with viable seed during the previous low. Because post-1997 lake levels were lower than those post-1986, they exposed a greater area for Phragmites colonization from seed; lake levels also remained low for a longer time. Differences in bathymetry below the 1986 and 1997 lake-level elevations likely played a role in greater post-1997 spatial expansion of Phragmites at other sites in the Great Lakes also. The next high lake level will likely be required to displace Phragmites, but the effect will be temporary.  相似文献
8.
由于乌伦古河河川径流具有连续枯水年且枯水时段长的特点,且乌伦古河在连续枯水年份出现断流是一种不可抗拒的自然因素,需要在流域综合规划指导下,具体研究吉力湖和布伦托海入湖水量及水位变化情势,尽可能恢复乌伦古河流域原有生态,保障洄游性鱼类所需要的流量要求,显著减少布伦托海湖水向吉力湖倒灌发生的时间和倒灌水量,使乌伦古湖和周边生态系统有所好转。  相似文献
9.
Deltas deliver both sediment (bedload sands and suspended load muds) and water to a coastal environment. In the past, deltaic models have emphasized the sandy bedload component constructing a depositional feature that protrudes from the coastline. In contrast, wave-influenced deltas form where river discharge effectively blocks the prevailing longshore drift. The resulting delta is asymmetric, with an extensive strandplain of multiple beach ridges updrift, and fewer beach ridges with wetlands, ponds, and subsidiary bay-head deltas downdrift. In Lake Erie, an analysis of 28 vibracores from the Portage River delta demonstrates significant updrift-downdrift sedimentological differences. Updrift of the delta consists of > 3 m thick gravel-rich sands overlying glaciolacustrine sediment. The deposits are organized into coarsening-upward, progradational shoreline sequences showing facies transitions from lower shoreface to upper shoreface to beachface to backbeach. A 1939 aerial photograph suggests > 15 prograding shoreline sequences were accreted during present lake levels (highstand systems tract), resulting in re-attachment of a bedrock high (Catawba Island) to the mainland. Downdrift of the delta consists of a one progradational shoreline sequence < 1 m thick that overlies peats and glaciolacustrine sediment. The peats have 14C ages between 1616 and 2025 cal YBP, and are interpreted as wetlands that formed during an earlier phase of rising lake levels (lowstand and transgressive systems tracts). The overlying beach ridge was accreted during present lake levels (highstand system tract). The coastal features in this portion of Lake Erie are best understood as components of an evolving wave-influenced delta, the first recognized in the Great Lakes.  相似文献
10.
Relationships between large-scale environmental factors and the incidence of type E avian botulism outbreaks in Lake Michigan were examined from 1963 to 2008. Avian botulism outbreaks most frequently occurred in years with low mean annual water levels, and lake levels were significantly lower in outbreak years than in non-outbreak years. Mean surface water temperatures in northern Lake Michigan during the period when type E outbreaks tend to occur (July through September) were significantly higher in outbreak years than in non-outbreak years. Trends in fish populations did not strongly correlate with botulism outbreaks, although botulism outbreaks in the 1960s coincided with high alewife abundance, and recent botulism outbreaks coincided with rapidly increasing round goby abundance. Botulism outbreaks occurred cyclically, and the frequency of outbreaks did not increase over the period of record. Climate change scenarios for the Great Lakes predict lower water levels and warmer water temperatures. As a consequence, the frequency and magnitude of type E botulism outbreaks in the Great Lakes may increase.  相似文献
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