Automated prediction system of household energy consumption in cities using web crawler and optimized artificial intelligence

The supply of electrical energy is critical to convenient and comfortable living. However, people consume a large amount of energy, contributing to an energy crisis and global warming, and damaging some ecological cycles. Residential electricity consumption has greater elasticity than industrial and business consumption; it therefore has high energy-saving potential. This work establishes an automated platform, which provides information about residential electricity consumption in each city in Taiwan. Machine learning was used to forecast future residential electricity demand. A nature-inspired optimization method was applied to enhance the accuracy of the best machine learner, yielding an even better hybrid ensemble model. Performance measures indicate that the resulting model is accurate and provides effective information for reference. An automatic web-based system based on the model was combined with a web crawler and scheduled to run automatically to provide information on monthly residential electricity consumption in each county and city. By providing energy consumption information across the country, power providers and government can discuss policy and set different goals for energy use. The results of this study can facilitate the early implementation of energy-saving and carbon emission-reducing in cities and aid utility companies in establishing energy conservation guidelines.     

基于人工神经网络的智能化架空线路应变快速解调方法北大核心

为了提高智能化光纤复合架空线路态势感知的实时性,将人工神经网络方法应用于光纤沿线应变解调,确定了神经网络的结构。编程实现了基于洛伦兹模型的最小二乘谱拟合方法和神经网络方法,采用不同信噪比和布里渊频移的布里渊谱训练神经网络,将它们应用于某光纤复合架空线路沿线光纤应变的测量,从不同角度比较了两种方法的计算结果。计算结果表明,神经网络方法能有效获得光纤沿线的布里渊频移进而获得应变,具有与谱拟合方法相似的准确性,但应变解调时间仅约为谱拟合方法的1/20000。研究结果为提高智能光纤复合架空线路态势感知的实时性提供了参考。     

转基因甜菜GTSB77品系特异性实时荧光聚合酶链式反应检测方法建立

目的 为实现转基因甜菜GTSB77的标识管理,建立其品系特异性实时荧光聚合酶链式反应(PCR)检测方法。方法 针对GTSB77的3′端外源插入片段与甜菜基因组DNA之间的邻接区序列设计引物和探针,建立GTSB77品系特异性实时荧光PCR检测方法,并对该方法的特异性、灵敏度和重复性进行检测。结果 建立的GTSB77检测方法特异性强,定量限(LOQ)为16拷贝,扩增效率为102%,重复性测试结果相对标准偏差(RSD)介于0.21%～1.66%之间。结论 建立的实时荧光PCR方法可应用于GTSB77的鉴定检测。     

Early-warning performance monitoring system (EPMS) using the business information of a project

An early-warning performance monitoring system (EPMS) is proposed to objectively measure and monitor the performance of a project for early detection of inherent poor performance problems. The EPMS is built based on project progress data and consists of a database of business information, an optimized theoretical model used as a performance measurement baseline, and an index for monitoring and forecasting the performance. By monitoring the performance through an application of the EPMS to the Korean construction project, the quarterly variation of index was found to differ by project type. These results could explain the environmental changes in the project execution. Therefore, the EPMS is expected to be an alternative for objective performance monitoring and forecasting while applying the existing methods is difficult because of the limited available data on performance indicators. The development procedures may also be useful to researchers interested in approaches to quantitatively analyze trends in various industries.     

基于负荷预测的0.4 kV配网低电压风险评估方法

我国现阶段的配电网网架结构依然十分薄弱,智能化水平低,缺乏先进的检测技术和高效的运维模式。在现阶段低压电气信息不开源的情况下,为解决0.4 kV配网无差别运维效率低的问题,文章分析了适用于低压配网状态评估的评价维度,并基于负荷预测结果提出了低压台区低电压风险评估方法,引入了微增容量所引起的压降比,实现对低电压风险的定期管控。该文对于优化低压配电网运维资源配置、指导低压配网差异化运维模式的建立,以及提高低压配电网运维整治效率具有一定的参考价值。     

基于自适应阈值活动语音检测和最小均方误差对数谱幅度估计的低信噪比降噪算法

针对低信噪比(SNR)环境下传统方法对声信号降噪的局限性，提出了一种联合自适应阈值活动语音检测（VAD）算法和最小均方误差对数谱幅度估计（MMSE-LSA）的实时降噪算法。首先，在VAD算法中通过基于能量概率最大值的概率统计来对背景噪声进行估计，对得到的背景噪声进行实时更新并保存；然后，将实时更新的背景噪声作为MMSE-LSA的参考噪声，并对噪声幅度谱进行自适应更新，最后进行降噪处理。通过在真实场景中对四类声信号进行实验，结果表明，该算法在保证对低SNR声信号的实时处理的情况下，相较于传统MMSE-LSA算法，降噪信号的SNR能够提高10~15 dB，且不存在信号过减的情况，可应用于实际工程。     

数据驱动的机床等待过程节能方法研究

为了降低机床等待过程中的能耗，提出了一种实时数据驱动的机床等待时间预测与节能控制方法。首先，建立了射频识别驱动的生产进度评估方法，并以生产进度数据作为输入，构建了基于堆栈降噪自编码的机床等待时间预测模型；其次，依据预测的机床等待时间，提出了机床状态切换方法，以降低机床能耗；最后，通过一个电梯零部件制造车间的案例分析，表明该方法的预测误差仅为4.1%，同时将机床等待过程能耗降低了57%，实现了制造车间的节能减排。     

Accuracy of wind energy forecasts in Great Britain and prospects for improvement

The metric representing the wind energy forecast error, when reported as a percent, is calculated quite differently than the error metrics for electricity transmission, electricity load, or in other industries such as manufacturing when they are also reported as a percent. The resulting calculated metric is quite different from what would be reported if the method utilized elsewhere was employed. This paper examines the possible forecast assessment and operational challenges associated with this finding. Concerning the prospects for improvement, the errors reported in MW of energy have a systematic component. With this insight, we developed a model to improve accuracy.     

考虑围岩稳定性评价的引水隧洞施工过程仿真系统

根据施工过程中的围岩稳定情况确定出合理的施工进尺并实时可视化评价结构安全状况具有重要的工程意义。首先利用BIM建模软件建立三维基础模型,通过对建模软件进行二次开发并结合系统仿真原理得到引水隧洞施工进度;其次将几何模型转换为数值计算模型并建立进度数据库与引水隧洞数值模型之间的映射关系,通过有限元分析围压系统的安全状况,根据不同进尺下的进度计算及围岩稳定分析结果,合理选择施工进尺;最后基于Python+VB.net混合编程技术编制了引水隧洞施工进度与围岩稳定安全仿真系统。工程应用表明,该系统将隧洞施工进度、支护体系与围岩稳定性进行结合,可为合理制定施工计划及施工现场控制提供可视化技术及数据支持。     

Machine learning methods for short‐term bid forecasting in the renewable energy market: A case study in Italy

In liberalized markets, there usually exists a day‐ahead session where energy is sold and acquired for the following production day. Owing to the high uncertainty of its production, renewable energy (wind in particular) can significantly influence the network imbalance of the following day. In this work, we consider the problem of predicting the sum of the bid volumes for wind energy of all the producers inside the day‐ahead energy market. This is a valuable tool to be used by an energy provider in order to determine the imbalance of a market zone and, thus, properly size its bids. In particular, we focus on the estimation of the possible relationship between the meteorological forecasts and the wind power offered on the market by the companies for a market zone. We propose a machine learning model which is used to compute a 1‐day‐ahead forecast. The input‐output mapping is obtained by support vector regression. The input feature vector is defined by a suitable feature extraction technique since the meteorological forecasts are given on a lattice of thousands of geographical points. The computational experiments are performed considering the Italian market as a case study (years 2012‐2016). The results show that the proposed feature extraction technique, selecting only some geographical zones, manages to reduce the error attained using all the features. Moreover, classical statistical methods are shown to be outperformed by machine learning models. The analysis reveals also some weaknesses of the model, which may be due to other nonmeteorological factors at play.