地表径流速度对城市内涝影响规律

为分析地表径流速度对城市内涝的影响,采用一维地下排水管网与二维城区地形的动态耦合模型,选取大连市某排水区块作为研究区域,设置4种地表径流速度10种设计降雨场景,模拟分析在不同重现期设计降雨及不同地表径流速度下研究区的内涝积水特性。结果表明:随着地表径流速度降低,管道排水压力变小,管道排水达标率最高可提升48.05%,且降雨重现期越短,地表径流流速对管道排水压力的削减效果越明显;地表径流流速对检查井溢流量影响显著,随着地表径流速度降低,检查井溢流量峰值最高可减小2 750 m~3,峰现时间最长可滞后56 min,同时随着降雨重现期增长,地表径流流速对检查井溢流量的削减效果减弱;研究区低、高风险区淹没面积随地表径流速度降低,最高可分别减小1.64万、8.37万m~2,但中风险区淹没面积变化反复。     

Laboratory Studies to Determine Suitable Chemicals to Improve Oil Recovery from Garzan Oil Field

Garzan oil field is located at the south east of Turkey. It is a mature oil field and the reservoir is fractured carbonate reservoir. After producing about 1% original oil in place (OOIP) reservoir pressure started to decline. Waterflooding was started in order to support reservoir pressure and also to enhance oil production in 1960. Waterflooding improved the oil recovery but after years of flooding water breakthrough at the production wells was observed. This increased the water/oil ratio at the production wells. In order to enhance oil recovery again different techniques were investigated. Chemical enhanced oil recovery (EOR) methods are gaining attention all over the world for oil recovery. Surfactant injection is an effective way for interfacial tension (IFT) reduction and wettability reversal. In this study, 31 different types of chemicals were studied to specify the effects on oil production. This paper presents solubility of surfactants in brine, IFT and contact angle measurements, imbibition tests, and lastly core flooding experiments. Most of the chemicals were incompatible with Garzan formation water, which has high divalent ion concentration. In this case, the usage of 2-propanol as co-surfactant yielded successful results for stability of the selected chemical solutions. The results of the wettability test indicated that both tested cationic and anionic surfactants altered the wettability of the carbonate rock from oil-wet to intermediate-wet. The maximum oil recovery by imbibition test was reached when core was exposed 1-ethly ionic liquid after imbibition in formation water. Also, after core flooding test, it is concluded that considerable amount of oil can be recovered from Garzan reservoir by waterflooding alone if adverse effects of natural fractures could be eliminated.     

非平稳条件下基于贝叶斯网络的内涝风险评估和管理方法

受非平稳条件因素(如气候变化、城市化)的影响,近几年内涝灾害频发。以Z市某地块为研究区域,借助地理信息系统(ArcGIS)和暴雨雨洪管理模型(SWMM)实现研究区排水管网的水动力模拟。在不同降雨情境下,比较分析现状系统及不同改造方案下的系统溢流量等信息,计算内涝风险指数。采用贝叶斯网络分析工具(Bayes Server)对引发内涝风险的主要因素进行推理、识别和分析,进而构建内涝风险评估模型。该模型便于决策者根据设计需求,结合各因素的不确定性范围和发生概率值,综合选取最适合的改造措施,优化市政排水防涝规划,为市政基础设施建设提供了依据。     

Investigation of seasonal variations of Beijing pavement condition data using unevenly spaced dynamic panel data model

Beijing municipal highway administration started to collect pavement condition data on its major expressways since 2006. It is advised in the Chinese practice standard that data collection shall be conducted on annual basis. However, pavement data are usually collected at different seasons of the year, which may cause significant seasonal variations in the observed condition. Moreover, for some reasons, data are missing for some of the pavement sections at certain years, which could bring up difficulties in performance model estimation and inference. These concerns have been simply neglected in past practice. This study proposed an unevenly spaced dynamic panel data model to investigate the seasonal patterns of a performance indicator called Ride Quality Index (RQI). A quasi-differencing approach was adopted for the estimation. Data collected from the 5th Ring Road of Beijing were used in the case study. It was found that RQI data collected during the fall season are expected to be lower than that collected during the spring or summer seasons. Findings from this research would be helpful to pavement engineers in using unevenly spaced pavement condition data for future condition estimation.     

Assessment of chemical and microbiological parameters of indoor swimming pool atmosphere using multiple comparisons

The aim of this study was to evaluate the air quality of an indoor swimming pool, analyzing diurnal and seasonal variations in microbiological counts and chemical parameters. The results indicated that yeast and bacteria counts, as well as carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and O₃ concentrations, showed significant diurnal difference. On the other hand, temperature, relative humidity (R.H.), yeast counts and concentrations of CO₂, particles, O₃, toluene, and benzene showed seasonal differences. In addition, the relationship between indoor and outdoor air and the degree of correlation between the different parameters have been calculated, suggesting that CO₂, fine particles and NO_x would have indoor origin due to the human activity and secondary reactions favored by the chemical and environmental conditions of the swimming pool; while O₃, benzene and toluene, would come from outside, mainly. The overall results indicated that indoor air quality (IAQ) in the swimming pool building was deficient by the high levels of CO₂ and microorganisms, low temperatures, and high R.H., because frequently the limits established by the legislation were exceeded. This fact could be due to the poor ventilation and the inadequate operation of heating, ventilation, and air‐conditioning systems.     

Cross-sector collaboration within Dutch flood risk governance: historical analysis of external triggers

ABSTRACT

This article synthesizes the literature on Dutch flood risk governance to analyze how external conditions shaped past and present dynamics of cross-sector collaboration for integrated flood risk management in the Netherlands. It traces the extent to which policy and legal frameworks, socio-economic circumstances, political realities, power relations and conflict situations have influenced attempts at collaboration between flood safety, spatial planning, environmental protection and other sectors. Despite the growing interdependences, existing power relations between the sectors are characterized by the dominance of the water sector. Hence, cross-sector collaboration can develop as long as it does not compromise flood safety.     

一种改进的合成流量法及其在水文预报中的应用

合成流量法对下游站流量作出预报的关键是确定各上游站流量到达下游站的时间。在实际中常采用平均传播时间,然而不同水情下真实传播时间与平均传播时间存在一定的差距,影响预报精度。对此,提出时间窗口概念,以平均传播时间为中心,向前、后各开一个时间窗口,用上游各站时间窗口内流量的线性组合表示其到达下游站的流量,以提高模型对不同水情的适应能力和预报精度。以三峡水库2009~2015年流量数据率定参数,以2016~2018年流量数据作为预报对象,试验结果表明时间窗口法能够显著改善预报精度。     

工业余热跨季节储热系统优化及经济性分析

以工业余热跨季节储热用于区域供热系统为研究对象,在一个已有的1 MW工业余热系统的基础上,搭建工业余热跨季节储热系统设计方案,通过系统模拟对系统储热、取热过程进行分析。分析结果表明:工业余热跨季节储热适合长周期、大规模蓄热;储热体体积和循环流量应根据系统热源和取热装置特性进行合理匹配,在合理匹配范围内可参考系统经济性确定系统最优配置。最后,通过费用年值法分析优化后的系统经济性,分析表明工业余热跨季节储热用于区域供热成本仅略高于燃煤供热,相比燃气供热具有非常可观的经济性。     

基于SARIMA-GRNN-SVM的短期商业电力负荷组合预测方法

针对短期商业电力负荷预测准确性与周期难以满足现有电力现货市场的问题,提出了一种基于SARIMAGRNN-SVM(seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average-generalized regression neural network-support vector machine)的商业电力负荷组合预测模型。首先,对商业电力负荷变化的周期规律与随机因素的复杂影响进行了分析;然后,结合以上分析,选用SARIMA和GRNN为单一预测模型对商业电力负荷进行预测,并利用SVM进行组合,实现日前商业电力负荷预测;最后,通过某商业综合体的电力负荷数据进行验证。所提组合预测模型较单一预测模型拥有更优的预测精度与鲁棒性,可以为短期商业电力负荷预测提供借鉴。