三门峡水电站1989—1994年汛期浑水发电试验研究情况综述

对三门峡水电站１９８９￣１９９４年汛期浑水发电试验研究情况作了概括性介绍。章指出，１９８９年以前三门峡水电站汛期不能发电主要是由于汛期含沙量高、电站泄流排沙设施还不完善、水库管理运用经验不足以及发电设备抗磨蚀性能差等原因造成的。通过６年汛期浑水发电试验研究，摸清了水轮机过流部件在汛期运用条件下的磨蚀破坏规律，掌握了各部位的破坏面积，特征和强度；在３８种试验材料中筛选出了ＳＰＨＧ１合金粉末喷焊材料     

An ARMA-type section model for average ten-day streamflow synthesis

Most of the rivers in Taiwan are short and run on a steep slope due to the island's topography. Because of the weak correlations of streamflow in time and the occurrence of extreme events such as typhoons, classical autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) models have difficulties in forecasting and synthesizing the average 10-day streamflow in Taiwan. In this study, the synthesis of the average 10-day streamflow of the Tanshui River in Taiwan is accomplished by a section model. The model divides the year-round streamflow records into several sections according to their distinguishable patterns, and each section is modeled by a separate ARMA model. For parameter control, a heuristic grouping procedure, based on statistical inference of the random noise part, is used to separate a year into a minimum number of sections. The section separation procedure follows the general precipitation pattern in a year. The case study results indicate high statistical agreement between synthesized series and historical records. Additionally, a new procedure, extended autocorrelation function (EACF), is introduced and applied in this study to assist in model identification.     

基于人工神经网络的河川径流实时预报研究

将人工神经网络技术应用于河川径流实时预报,建立起河川径流实时预报的BP网络模型,并针对经典BP算法所存在的缺陷,采用共轭梯度优化和误差反向传播训练算法,使得所建立的BP网络模型的收敛性大为改善,消除和避免了实际应用中可能出现的局部优化问题．利用西大洋水库1975～1995年的入库径流系列资料,对所建立的BP网络模型进行训练和检验,同时探讨了网络结构对网络模型预报结果的影响．通过大量的实际应用和对比分析,表明BP网络模型比HG分析模型和相关图法更优越、更具有实际推广和应用价值．     

Extreme value analysis of streamflow time series in Poyang Lake Basin, China

Extreme meteorological and hydrological events may cause major disasters and heavy social and economic losses.Therefore,more and more studies have focused on extreme hydro-meteorological events in various climates and geographic regions.Based on nearly 50 years of observed records of the Poyang Lake Basin,the occurrence and changing trends of extreme streamflow indices,including the annual maximum flow,annual peak-over-threshold flows,and low flows,were analyzed for ten hydrological stations.The results indicate that most annual maximum flows occurred from April to July,highly attributed to the Southeast Asian summer monsoons,whereas the annual minimum flows were concentrated between January and February.As for the low flow indices (the annual minimum flow,annual minimum 7-d flow,and annual minimum 30-d flow),a significant increasing trend was detected in most parts of the Poyang Lake Basin.The trends illustrate the potential effects of climate change and human activities on the hydrological cycle over the Poyang Lake Basin.     

影响水库径流调节的几个问题

文中从库容曲线的计算方法、供水保证率、蒸发和渗漏损失、调节时段等方面的问题,论述了各因素对调节计算及工程规模的影响,结合工程实例,提出在前期工作论证中加强基础资料的分析和整理,依据同类工程和技术规范,合理选取参数,为工程规模的合理论证提供科学、严谨、合理、准确的技术支撑。     

西藏拉萨河径流预测方法研究

本文介绍了人工神经网络模型、分期平稳自回归模型、一阶季节性自回归模型这三种径流预测模型的基本原理,并且利用西藏拉萨河拉萨站1956至1968年,1973年至2000年41年的月平均流量资料对月径流进行预测和比较,得出BP-人工神经网络模型是相对于其它两种方法更适合对拉萨河径流进行预测的方法。     

Monthly Joint Operations for the Nakdong Multi-reservoir System in Korea

Abstract

This study applies a state-of-art optimization technique, SSDP/ESP (Sampling Stochastic Dynamic Programming with Ensemble Streamflow Prediction), to derive a monthly joint operating policy for the Nakdong multi-reservoir system in Korea. A rainfall-runoff model, SSARR (Streamflow Synthesis And Reservoir Regulation), is linked to the SSDP/ESP model to provide ESP scenarios for runoff during the next month in the Nakdong River basin. The primary advantage of the SSDP/ESP is that it updates the derived operating policy as new ESP forecasts become available. Another SSDP model that employs historical runoff scenarios (SSDP/Hist) is also developed. The main difference between the two SSDP models is that SSDP/Hist is an off-line model whereas the SSDP/ESP is on-line. The developed operating policies are tested with a simulation model using an object-oriented simulation software, STELLA. The simulation results show that SSDP/ESP is superior to SSDP/Hist with respect to the water supply criterion, although both models perform similarly with respect to the hydroelectric energy production criterion.     

中国年径流频率分布及统计特征区域规律分析

基于全国514个水文站1956~2000年的年径流资料,采用线性矩比例图和线性矩-矩对比图分析了P-Ⅲ型分布、对数正态(LN)分布拟合我国多年平均年径流系列的情况,并利用强局部加权回归曲线(LOWESS)平滑散点数据进行分布函数拟合判断,表明P-Ⅲ分布对我国年径流资料适用性较好。基于此,对全国年径流统计特征和区域规律进行研究,建立了南北分区径流量(深)、流域面积、标准差、离散系数之间的经验关系,为水资源规划及合理开发利用提供了依据。