煤炭资源型城市转型模式研究：以徐州贾汪区为例

煤炭资源型城市为我国经济发展提供了重要的资源和能源支持,研究资源型城市转型的经验模式对调整区域经济结构、确保社会稳定和改善生态环境具有重要的实践意义。本文采用文献综述法和实证分析法,研究我国东部煤炭资源枯竭型城市转型所面临的共性难题,并以徐州贾汪区转型探索经历为例,总结城市转型的"徐州贾汪区模式",主要包括放大正向外部效应、长期坚持矿地融合、大力建设矿区社会生态系统恢复力三条路径。研究结果表明,煤炭城市转型发展的共性问题相互联系、相互影响,是一个系统性难题,必须引入系统性思维。我国东部矿区普遍人口密集,农业发达、沉陷积水是最主要的共性特征,煤炭开采产生的社会问题、经济问题、生态问题、环境问题基本相同,转型发展模式值得互鉴。     

地表径流速度对城市内涝影响规律

为分析地表径流速度对城市内涝的影响,采用一维地下排水管网与二维城区地形的动态耦合模型,选取大连市某排水区块作为研究区域,设置4种地表径流速度10种设计降雨场景,模拟分析在不同重现期设计降雨及不同地表径流速度下研究区的内涝积水特性。结果表明:随着地表径流速度降低,管道排水压力变小,管道排水达标率最高可提升48.05%,且降雨重现期越短,地表径流流速对管道排水压力的削减效果越明显;地表径流流速对检查井溢流量影响显著,随着地表径流速度降低,检查井溢流量峰值最高可减小2 750 m~3,峰现时间最长可滞后56 min,同时随着降雨重现期增长,地表径流流速对检查井溢流量的削减效果减弱;研究区低、高风险区淹没面积随地表径流速度降低,最高可分别减小1.64万、8.37万m~2,但中风险区淹没面积变化反复。     

Urban livability in socially disadvantaged neighborhoods: The experience of the German program “socially integrative city”

This paper asks how the livability of socially disadvantaged urban neighborhoods can be improved with the help of publicly funded area-based urban regeneration. It builds on the history of area-based regeneration policies in Germany aiming at upgrading and resolving urban problems at the neighborhood level. Its main argument is as follows. First, the fate of conventional physical upgrading policies focusing on the livability of deprived urban areas depends on the development environment. While successful upgrading sometimes makes inner-city neighborhoods so attractive that they run into a trend towards gentrification and displacement of the urban poor, the stabilization of less privileged areas cannot always be guaranteed. Second, alternative approaches are needed, linking limited physical upgrading with socially oriented policies, building on strategies like neighborhood management and empowerment. Third, they can make a substantial contribution to stabilizing deprived neighborhoods, thereby improving the general living conditions and the opportunities of the urban poor. However, they require at least some permanent intervention. Thus, they transcend the logic of area-based regeneration normally limited to restoring faith into the private real estate market and thereby directing inward investment into them that improves the quality of the physical environment. Fourth, they are hardly able to overcome significant negative stigmatization in cities that are severely hit by economic downturn and population decline. This is especially true when they act as arrival areas for consecutive waves of migrants, making it necessary to redefine the role of those areas in cities and accepting their high concentration of urban problems as a starting point for different area-based policies dealing with them. The key empirical background of the paper is the German system of urban development grants and an evaluation of the so-called program of “socially integrative city”.     

基于分形理论的黄河内蒙古段河势演变特征及其与凌汛灾害关联研究

寒区河道凌汛灾害河势“弯道效应”的量化评估十分重要。基于分形理论提出河道横断面-纵剖面-平面多维度河势分形维数计算方法及其物理机制，并探讨黄河内蒙古段不同维度河势演变分形特征及其与凌汛灾害的关联关系。结果表明，黄河内蒙古段不同维度河势均具有多尺度自相似分形特征，且具有多年记忆周期的长程相关性；冰坝（严重性冰塞）发生频次与河道主槽弯曲分形维数呈正相关指数型函数关系，与河相系数、深泓点高程和河段平均底坡分形维数负相关，与水深-面积分形维数正相关，总体表明冰坝灾害更易发生于主槽偏移摆动大、蜿蜒曲折、河湾发育程度高的宽浅型弯曲河道，研究成果可为凌汛期冰塞冰坝灾害易发河段诊断及预测提供重要理论依据。     

Laboratory Studies to Determine Suitable Chemicals to Improve Oil Recovery from Garzan Oil Field

Garzan oil field is located at the south east of Turkey. It is a mature oil field and the reservoir is fractured carbonate reservoir. After producing about 1% original oil in place (OOIP) reservoir pressure started to decline. Waterflooding was started in order to support reservoir pressure and also to enhance oil production in 1960. Waterflooding improved the oil recovery but after years of flooding water breakthrough at the production wells was observed. This increased the water/oil ratio at the production wells. In order to enhance oil recovery again different techniques were investigated. Chemical enhanced oil recovery (EOR) methods are gaining attention all over the world for oil recovery. Surfactant injection is an effective way for interfacial tension (IFT) reduction and wettability reversal. In this study, 31 different types of chemicals were studied to specify the effects on oil production. This paper presents solubility of surfactants in brine, IFT and contact angle measurements, imbibition tests, and lastly core flooding experiments. Most of the chemicals were incompatible with Garzan formation water, which has high divalent ion concentration. In this case, the usage of 2-propanol as co-surfactant yielded successful results for stability of the selected chemical solutions. The results of the wettability test indicated that both tested cationic and anionic surfactants altered the wettability of the carbonate rock from oil-wet to intermediate-wet. The maximum oil recovery by imbibition test was reached when core was exposed 1-ethly ionic liquid after imbibition in formation water. Also, after core flooding test, it is concluded that considerable amount of oil can be recovered from Garzan reservoir by waterflooding alone if adverse effects of natural fractures could be eliminated.     

Cross-sector collaboration within Dutch flood risk governance: historical analysis of external triggers

ABSTRACT

This article synthesizes the literature on Dutch flood risk governance to analyze how external conditions shaped past and present dynamics of cross-sector collaboration for integrated flood risk management in the Netherlands. It traces the extent to which policy and legal frameworks, socio-economic circumstances, political realities, power relations and conflict situations have influenced attempts at collaboration between flood safety, spatial planning, environmental protection and other sectors. Despite the growing interdependences, existing power relations between the sectors are characterized by the dominance of the water sector. Hence, cross-sector collaboration can develop as long as it does not compromise flood safety.     

城市排水管网风险评估研究

总结了常见的城市排水管网风险评估的方法及软件,对污水管网的气体爆炸风险、雨水管网的内涝风险、综合风险这三类风险评估的文献进行了归纳整理,并对未来的研究重点及趋势做出了预测。     

煤矿冲击地压与冒顶复合灾害研究

随着煤矿向深部发展,矿井动力灾害既表现出冲击地压的部分特征,又表现出冒顶的部分特征。2种典型的灾害打破以往冒顶与冲击地压的发生具有一种互为逆向性的认知规律,在深部高应力煤巷,特别是留顶煤巷道中出现了相互诱导、复合发生的新灾害类型。在总结山东、山西和新疆矿区典型巷道冲击致顶板(顶煤)动力灾害特征的基础上,提出了深部巷道冲击地压与冒顶复合灾害的概念、机理与分类,指出复合灾害机理关键点在于揭示巷道整体系统和破碎区子系统的稳定原理及其2者间的相互影响。建立了巷道发生复合灾害的力学模型,根据扰动响应失稳判据,提出并得到了巷道发生复合灾害的临界应力Pcr、临界软化区半径ρ_cr和最大容许采扰应力增量σ_max,厘清了灾害发生的主控因素,分析了煤岩冲击倾向指数K、支护强度ps、巷道半径ρ₀、煤岩强度σ_c等对灾害发生的影响规律,同时阐明了围岩塑性软化、破碎深度随地应力增加的发育规律。研究结果表明,破碎发育巷道的动力失稳主体为弹性区、软化区与破碎区构成的不稳定系统,垮落主体为破碎区;稳定的破碎区提升了巷道冲击启动临界值,使其启动难度增大,但破碎区的发育又易引起顶煤垮落;巷道稳定支护是解决复合灾害的关键,科学合理支护既能有效调控围岩破碎防冒,又能提升冲击启动临界值。通过理论研究,揭示了巷道冲击地压与冒顶复合灾害的发生机理,阐明了巷道软化与破碎区及其稳控支护对深部破碎发育巷道动力灾害防治的重要性。     

灾害孤岛潜势风险分群与降雨警戒值探讨

台湾本身地貌特性以及近年来强降雨事件发生频繁,促使山区地带发生复合式灾害,如崩塌、泥石流与山洪等,因此灾害孤岛效应有必要仿效泥石流以及洪水灾害,制定出参考警戒值以及警戒线,将有助于防灾决策、救难资源投入以及灾害风险判释。本文针对台湾发生过灾害孤岛效应的114个村进行分析,且着重于首次发生灾害的台风降雨事件。首先通过群集分析并依照各样本的6个灾因指标进行分类,群集结果显示可分为8个群,并再以象限分布描述各群的潜势相对风险。采用2004—2015年台风降雨事件的观测雨量数据,并利用距离反比权重法,得出各村的累积降雨量(R)与最大时雨量(I)。整合各群集样本雨量数据后,使用台湾水土保持局使用的RTI模式概念,计算出各群集之RTImin、RTI30、RTI50和RTI70,以绘制低风险区(0～30%)、中风险区(30～70%)和高风险区(70%～100%),其中着重探讨灾害孤岛事件的下限值RTImin,以便可得知最易发生灾害的群集。结果显示,各群的潜势风险反映RTImin的效果良好,如潜势风险越高则其RTImin值越低,即雨量驱动灾害发生的条件较低。群集中,第1与2群为低风险群、第3、5与6群为中风险群、第4、7与8群为高风险群,仅第5群无法透过RTImin验证潜势风险关系,故本文挑选的6项灾因指标,为辨别灾害孤岛效应潜势等级的重要因子。