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China’s energy consumption experienced rapid growth over the past three decades, raising great concerns for the future adjustment of China’s energy consumption structure. This paper first presents the historical evidence on China’s energy consumption by the fuel types and sectors. Then, by establishing a bottom-up accounting framework and using long-range energy alternatives planning energy modeling tool, the future of China’s energy consumption structure under three scenarios is forecast. According to the estimates, China’s total energy consumption will increase from 3014 million tonnes oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2015 to 4470 Mtoe in 2040 under the current policies scenario, 4040 Mtoe in 2040 under the moderate policies scenario and 3320 Mtoe in 2040 under the strong policies scenario, respectively, lower than those of the IEA’s estimations. In addition, the clean fuels (gas, nuclear and renewables) could be an effective alternative to the conventional fossil fuels (coal and oil) and offer much more potential. Furthermore, the industry sector has much strong reduction potentials than the other sectors. Finally, this paper suggests that the Chinese government should incorporate consideration of adjustment of the energy consumption structure into existing energy policies and measures in the future.  相似文献
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An important decision for policy makers is selecting strategic petroleum reserve sites. However, policy makers may not choose the most suitable and efficient locations for strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) due to the complexity in the choice of sites. This paper proposes a multi-objective programming model to determine the optimal locations for China’s SPR storage sites. This model considers not only the minimum response time but also the minimum transportation cost based on a series of reasonable assumptions and constraint conditions. The factors influencing SPR sites are identified to determine potential demand points and candidate storage sites. Estimation and suggestions are made for the selection of China’s future SPR storage sites based on the results of this model. When the number of petroleum storage sites is less than or equals 25 and the maximum capacity of storage sites is restricted to 10 million tonnes, the model’s result best fit for the current layout scheme selected thirteen storage sites in four scenarios. Considering the current status of SPR in China, Tianjin, Qingdao, Dalian, Daqing and Zhanjiang, Chengdu, Xi’an, and Yueyang are suggested to be the candidate locations for the third phase of the construction plan. The locations of petroleum storage sites suggested in this work could be used as a reference for decision makers.  相似文献
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