Moving Endpoints and the Internal Consistency of Agents' Ex Ante Forecasts

Forecasts by rational agents contain embedded initial and terminal boundary conditions. Standard time series models generate two types of long-run boundary values or steady-state 'endpoints' – fixed endpoints and moving average endpoints. Neither can explain the shifting endpoints implied by postwar movements in the cross-section of forward rate forecasts in the term structure or by post-1979 changes in survey estimates of expected long-run inflation. Multiperiod forecasts by a broader class of 'moving endpoint' time series models provide substantially improved tracking of the historical term structure and generally support the internal consistency of the ex ante long-run expectations of bond traders and survey respondents.     

速率及气压对轮胎胎面胶摩擦性能的影响

采用高速摩擦机对不同速率和气压下胎面胶的摩擦性能进行研究.结果表明,固定速率,随着气压的增大,摩擦因数减小,摩擦力先减小后增大;固定气压,随着速率的增大,摩擦因数减小.在对摩擦因数随速率和气压变化规律进行分析的基础上,得到摩擦因数随两因素变化的经验关联式,可用于初步计算轮胎胎面胶的摩擦因数及分析轮胎胎面在路面上滑移时的温升,为轮胎温度场的研究提供必要参数.     

引力势、物质运动与时空结构 宇宙演化概略与“暗能量”

将物质运动和宇宙引力势之间的相互作用关系用于解释大爆炸理论模型,推论了宇宙演化概略.分析了由各个层次的物质运动与宇宙引力势之间的相互作用所产生的后果及其在宇宙演化过程中所起的作用,讨论了宇宙由减速膨胀转变为加速膨胀的基本原因,澄清了"暗能量"的本质.     

中国通货膨胀与相对价格可变性——基于长期效应与短期效应的实证分析

在构建通货膨胀与RPV关系理论模型的基础上,运用面板数据固定效应估计量来检验中国通货膨胀对RPV影响的长期效应,并构建向量误差修正模型来分析中国通货膨胀对RPV影响的短期效应.研究得出,在不考虑确定性因素和外生变量的情况下,从全国来看,总体是短期效应大于长期效应;相反则是长期效应略大于短期效应.在上述两种情况下,各地区的长期效应与短期效应也明显不同.因此,国家应该多考虑不同地区通货膨胀对RPV影响的长期效应与短期效应大小,从而有效地治理通货膨胀和稳定物价水平.     

Optimal cycle time and inventory decisions in coordinated and non-coordinated two-echelon inventory system under inflation and time value of money

In this paper, a mathematical model is developed for a coordinated and non-coordinated two-echelon inventory system comprising of a single manufacturer and a single retailer. The objective of the model is to demonstrate the optimality of cycle time and inventory decisions under the phenomena of different inflation rates at the manufacturer and retailer points. Also, it is aimed at determining the annual net revenue of the supply chain (SC). In the proposed model, the present value of the inflated ordering/set-up costs, purchase/unit costs, carrying costs and the gross revenue is computed for the retailer, manufacturer and the SC. A numerical example is devised to illustrate the optimality of decision variables and the objective function. Also, the sensitivity analysis is carried out. Results show that the present value of the annual net revenue of the retailer, manufacturer and SC decreases with increased inflation rate at the retailer and decreased inflation rate at the manufacturer simultaneously.     

Comparing the Slack-Variable Mixture Model With Other Alternatives

There have been many linear regression models proposed to analyze mixture experiments including the Scheffé model, the slack-variable model, and the Kronecker model. The use of the slack-variable model is somewhat controversial within the mixture experiment research community. However, in situations that the slack-variable ingredient is used to fill in the formulation and the remaining ingredients have constraints such that they can be chosen independently of one another, the slack-variable model is extremely popular by practitioners mainly due to the ease of interpretation. In this article, we advocate that for some mixture experiments the slack-variable model has appealing properties including numerical stability and better prediction accuracy when model-term selection is performed. We also explain how the effects of the slack-variable model components should be interpreted and how easy it is for practitioners to understand the components effects. We also investigate how to choose the slack-variable component, what transformation should be used to reduce collinearity, and under what circumstances the slack-variable model should be preferred. Both simulation and practical examples are provided to support the conclusions.     

两种适合零膨胀微晶玻璃晶化热处理工艺制定的实验方法研究

通过晶核形成速度和晶体生长速度曲线可以确定零膨胀微晶玻璃晶化热处理工艺的主要参数,但受到各种因素的影响,往往不能及时、准确地得到这两条曲线。研究表明可以通过晶化热处理过程中一些反映内部结构变化的性质和现象,来制定和优化晶化热处理工艺。本文通过对晶化热处理过程折射率ND和发热量的变化进行记录和分析,制定和优化了晶化热处理工艺的方法。     

充水式橡胶坝技术在长山灌区渠首改造中的应用

简述了五常市长山灌区渠首充水式橡胶坝设计的技术要点及土建工程设计的技术要求,阐述了橡胶坝泄洪能力,坝袋及其锚固计算方法,评述了橡胶坝的优缺点.     

空间充气天线反射器受冲击气体质量损失分析

为了获得空间粒子撞击对结构性能的影响规律,开展了对某型号空间充气展开天线反射器受空间粒子冲击作用下的内部气体质量损失和内部充气压力变化的分析.结果表明:气体质量损失与时间呈平方递增关系,且随入射粒子的直径以及内部充气压力的增加而增加.消除反射面薄膜褶皱的最优内部充气压力为12 Pa.薄膜材料的充气圆环内部充气压力至少要达到16.8 kPa.分析结果为空间充气展开天线反射器表面精度控制提供依据.     

我国推行物价变动会计的难点及对策研究

物价变动作为一种普遍的经济现象,一直对历史成本会计有着较大的影响,在一定程度上妨碍了财务会计履行其职能。有关物价变动会计的研究已经成为会计领域的一个难题。那么,物价变动对会计系统所输出的信息究竟有什么影响,其影响程度的大小及对一些已初步形成的物价变动会计理论如何应用就成为进一步研究的内容。本文将结合当前我国实际情况就如何减轻物价变动对会计信息质量的影响提出一些解决的措施和方法。