Unreliable numbers: error and harm induced by bad design can be reduced by better design

Number entry is a ubiquitous activity and is often performed in safety- and mission-critical procedures, such as healthcare, science, finance, aviation and in many other areas. We show that Monte Carlo methods can quickly and easily compare the reliability of different number entry systems. A surprising finding is that many common, widely used systems are defective, and induce unnecessary human error. We show that Monte Carlo methods enable designers to explore the implications of normal and unexpected operator behaviour, and to design systems to be more resilient to use error. We demonstrate novel designs with improved resilience, implying that the common problems identified and the errors they induce are avoidable.     

Design and experimental investigation of the high efficiency 1.5 W/4.2 K pneumatic-drive G-M cryocooler

The development of a high cooling power and high efficiency 4.2 K two stage G-M cryocooler is critically important given its broad applications in low temperature superconductors, MRI, infrared detector and cryogenic electronics. A high efficiency 1.5 W/4.2 K pneumatic-drive G-M cryocooler has recently been designed and developed by ARS. The effect of expansion volume rate and operation conditions on the cooling performance has been experimentally investigated. A typical cooling performance of 1.5 W/4.2 K has been achieved, and the minimum temperature of the second stage is 2.46 K. The steady input power of the compressor at 60 Hz is 6.8 kW, while the operation speed of the rotary valve is 30 rpm. A maximum cooling power of 1.75 W/4.2 K has been obtained in test runs.     

Evolutionary collective behavior decomposition model for time series data mining

In this research, we propose a novel framework referred to as collective game behavior decomposition where complex collective behavior is assumed to be generated by aggregation of several groups of agents following different strategies and complexity emerges from collaboration and competition of individuals. The strategy of an agent is modeled by certain simple game theory models with limited information. Genetic algorithms are used to obtain the optimal collective behavior decomposition based on history data. The trained model can be used for collective behavior prediction. For modeling individual behavior, two simple games, the minority game and mixed game are investigated in experiments on the real-world stock prices and foreign-exchange rate. Experimental results are presented to show the effectiveness of the new proposed model.     

A case-deletion diagnostic for penalized calibration estimators and BLUP under linear mixed models in survey sampling

The penalized calibration technique in survey sampling combines usual calibration and soft calibration by introducing a penalty term. Certain relevant estimates in survey sampling can be considered as penalized calibration estimates obtained as particular cases from an optimization problem with a common basic structure. In this framework, a case deletion diagnostic is proposed for a class of penalized calibration estimators including both design-based and model-based estimators. The diagnostic compares finite population parameter estimates and can be calculated from quantities related to the full data set. The resulting diagnostic is a function of the residual and leverage, as other diagnostics in regression models, and of the calibration weight, a singular feature in survey sampling. Moreover, a particular case, which includes the basic unit level model for small area estimation, is considered. Both a real and an artificial example are included to illustrate the diagnostic proposed. The results obtained clearly show that the proposed diagnostic depends on the calibration and soft-calibration variables, on the penalization term, as well as on the parameter to estimate.     

Modeling and analysis of passive worm propagation in the P2P file-sharing network

A number of worms, named P2P (peer-to-peer) passive worms, have recently surfaced, which propagate in P2P file-sharing networks and have posed heavy threats to these networks. In contrast to the majority of Internet worms, it is by exploiting users’ legitimate activities instead of vulnerabilities of networks in which P2P passive worms propagate. This feature evidently slows down their propagation, which results in them not attracting an adequate amount of attention in literature. Meanwhile, this feature visibly increases the difficulty of detecting them, which makes it very possible for them to become epidemic. In this paper, we propose an analytical model for P2P passive worm propagation by adopting epidemiological approaches so as to identify their behaviors and predict the tendency of their propagation accurately. Compared with a few existing models, dynamic characteristics of P2P networks are taken into account. Based on this proposed model, the sufficient condition for the global stability of the worm free equilibrium is derived by applying epidemiological theories. Large scale simulation experiments have validated both the proposed model and the condition.     

Beneficial effects of wettability altering surfactants in oil-wet fractured reservoirs

In fractured reservoirs, an effective matrix-fracture mass transfer is required for oil recovery. Surfactants have long been considered for oil recovery enhancement, mainly in terms of their ability to reduce oil–water interfacial tension. These surfactants are effective when the fractured formations are water-wet, where capillary imbibition of surfactants from the fracture into the matrix contributes to oil recovery. However, another beneficial aspect of surfactants, namely their ability to alter wettability, remains to be explored and exploited. Surfactants capable of altering wettability can be especially beneficial in oil-wet fractured formations, where the surfactant in the fracture diffuses into the matrix and alters the wettability, enabling imbibition of even more surfactant into the matrix. This sequential process of initial diffusion followed by imbibition continues well into the matrix yielding significant enhancements in oil recovery.In order to test this hypothesis of sequential diffusion–imbibition phenomenon, Dual-Drop Dual-Crystal (DDDC) contact angle experiments have been conducted using fractured Yates dolomite reservoir fluids, two types of surfactants (nonionic and anionic) and dolomite rock substrates. A new experimental procedure was developed in which crude oil equilibrated with reservoir brine has been exposed to surfactant to simulate the matrix-fracture interactions in fractured reservoirs. This procedure enables the measurements of dynamic contact angles and oil–water interfacial tensions, in addition to providing the visual observations of the dynamic behavior of crude oil trapped in the rock matrix as it encounters the diffusing surfactant from the fractures. Both the measurements and visual observations indicate wettability alterations of the matrix surface from oil-wet to less oil-wet or intermediate wet by the surfactants. Thus this study is of practical importance to oil-wet fractured formations where surfactant-induced wettability alterations can result in significant oil recovery enhancements. In addition, this study has also identified the need to include contact angle term in the dimensionless Bond number formulations for better quantitative interpretation of rock–fluids interactions.     

AlSb晶体内二维磁极化子的磁场与温度效应

在考虑声子之间相互作用的同时，本文应用线性组合算符和微扰法研究了电子自旋对弱耦合二维磁极化子特性的影响。对AlSb晶体所作的数值计算结果表明，随着磁场的加强，磁极化子平均数减少；随着温度的增加，磁极化子平均数也增加；随着温度的增加，电子自旋作用以及声子之间相互作用都加强；随着磁场的加强，电子自旋作用增加而声子之间相互作用基本不变。     

循环伏安法在润滑油检测中的应用

介绍了循环伏安法的产生背景、原理。应用该技术可以快速、方便地对润滑油中抗氧剂、总酸（碱）值进行测定，并且可以对不同厂家润滑油的抗氧剂包进行区别。该技术还可以有效地评价润滑油的使用寿命和设备工作状况。     

Performance and Commercial Application of the Promoter LCC-A for Maximization of Propylene Yield

1 Introduction Propylene as an important feedstock for organic chemicals is mainly originated from steam cracking and catalytic cracking processes. During the FCC process the propylene content varies with the FCC catalyst and process technology adopted, resulting in significant difference in propylene concentration in the cracked product——LPG. The conventional FCC pro- cess generally gives a propylene yield of around 4%, while the FCC process with maximization of propylene yield can in…