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1.
The deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship motion is important for safe navigation and stable real-time operational control of ships at sea. However, the volatility and randomness of ship motion, the non-adaptive nature of single predictors and the poor coverage of quantile regression pose serious challenges to uncertainty prediction, making research in this field limited. In this paper, a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing, reinforcement learning and improved quantile regression neural network (QRNN) is proposed to explore the deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship pitch motion. To validate the performance of the proposed multi-predictor integrated prediction model, an experimental study is conducted with three sets of actual ship longitudinal motions during sea trials in the South China Sea. The experimental results indicate that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the proposed model of deterministic prediction are 0.0254°, 0.0359°, and 0.0188°, respectively. Taking series #2 as an example, the prediction interval coverage probabilities (PICPs) of the proposed model of probability predictions at 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels (CLs) are 0.9400, 0.9800, and 1.0000, respectively. This study signifies that the proposed model can provide trusted deterministic predictions and can effectively quantify the uncertainty of ship pitch motion, which has the potential to provide practical support for ship early warning systems. 相似文献
2.
In this study, the mean droplet diameter in the cavity zone and the total mass transfer area of a multi-stage highspeed disperser(HSD) reactor with different packing combinations were measured and evaluated. The effects of rotational speed and packing radius, as well as the packing ring radius and numbers, on the mean droplet diameter and the total mass transfer area were evaluated. A model was established to calculate the mass transfer area in the cavity zone in the HSD reactor, and it was found that the packings contribute 61%–82% of the total mass transfer area. A correlation for predicting the mass transfer area in the packing zone was regressed by the dimensionless analysis method. An enhancement factor based on the mass transfer area in the packing zone was proposed to evaluate the effect of packing combination on mass transfer area. Two optimum packing combinations were proposed in consideration of the mean droplet diameter and the enhancement factor. 相似文献
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Portfolio selection is a key issue in the business world and financial fields. This article presents a new decision making method of portfolio optimization (PO) issues in different risk measures by using new evolutionary computing method and cardinality constrains which is mentioned as hybrid meta-heuristic algorithms. Based on mean–variance (MV) Method by Markowitz we collected three risk levels; mean absolute deviation (MAD), semi variance (SV) and variance with skewness (VWS). The developed algorithms are Electromagnetism-like algorithm (EM), particle swarm optimization (PSO), genetic algorithm (GA), genetic network programming (GNP) and simulated annealing (SA). Also a diversification mechanism strategy is implemented and hybridized with the developed algorithms to increase the diversity and overcome local optimality. The sustainability of this proposed model is verified by 50 factories on the Iranian stock exchange. Finally, experimental results of proposed algorithms with cardinality constraint are compared with each other by four effective metrics in which the algorithms performance for achieving the optimal solution discussed. In addition, we have done the analysis of variance technique to confirm the validity and accurately analyze of the results which the success of this method was proved. 相似文献
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In this paper, we propose a novel methodology to define and estimate a surrogate measure. By imposing a hypothetical disturbance to the leading vehicle, the following vehicle’s action is represented as a probabilistic causal model. After that, a tree is built to describe the eight possible conflict types under the model. The surrogate measure, named Aggregated Crash Index (ACI), is thus proposed to measure the crash risk. This index reflects the accommodability of freeway traffic state to a traffic disturbance. We further apply this measure to evaluate the crash risks in a freeway section of Pacific Motorway, Australia. The results show that the proposed indicator outperforms the three traditional crash surrogate measures (i.e., Time to Collision, Proportion of Stopping Distance, and Crash Potential Index) in representing rear-end crash risks. The applications of this measure are also discussed. 相似文献
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相关视频跟踪器存在计算量大、模板漂移、对机动目标,杂波影响大以及遮挡情况无法跟踪的问题,而Kalman滤波能通过利用相关跟踪器的输出结果来预测目标在下一帧里在图像中的坐标,可以在高概率的小范围内对目标进行搜索,以大幅减小计算量和杂波的影响.然后,当跟踪器由于受到杂波或遮挡的影响而提供了错误的测量信息时,跟踪的性能将大幅下降.大量研究表明,Mean-Shift跟踪器具有运算速度快和跟踪性能好的特点,而当目标柱状图和待选图像区域相近时,其跟踪性能也将大幅下降,甚至无法进行跟踪.为了解决该问题,结合上述3种思想提出了一种改进的、稳健的视频目标跟踪方法,并通过理论分析和仿真结果表明了算法的有效性和优越性. 相似文献
7.
《The Electricity Journal》2020,33(7):106816
Using mean value theorem for integrals we show that the well-known LCOE definition is incorrect. 相似文献
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矿井机电设备的高效运行是井下安全生产的重要保障,但由于井下粉尘较多、光照不均匀,导致井下视频监控系统获取的机电设备图像较为模糊,影响了对机电设备运行状况的有效监控。为此,将Shearlet变换与图像区域自适应分类方法相结合,提出了一种矿井机电设备视频监控图像处理算法。首先结合图像局部均值和标准差,设计了一种图像块自适应分类方法,将图像自适应分成同质块、非同质块和边缘块等3类图像块,对同质图像块进行维纳滤波;然后对非同质图像块进行多尺度Shearlet变换,得到低频、高频Shearlet分解系数,对高频Shearlet分解系数提出了一种Shearlet变换域自适应阈值去噪函数模型来去除其中的噪声,将原始低频shearlet分解系数及去噪后的高频Shearlet分解系数进行重构;最后,将边缘图像块和去噪后的同质图像块、非同质图像块进行叠加。采用MATLAB语言分别将维纳滤波、小波硬阈值去噪函数模型、小波软阈值去噪函数模型以及所提算法进行编程并进行试验,结果表明:所提算法处理后的图像视觉效果有了较大程度改善,清晰度较好,对于提高矿井机电设备视频监控图像的质量有一定的参考价值。 相似文献
10.
《Advanced Powder Technology》2020,31(1):287-299
The parameters governing the crystallisation of paracetamol using various conventional techniques has been extensively studied, however the factors influencing the drug crystallisation using spray drying is not as well understood. The aim of this work was to investigate the crystallisation of an active pharmaceutical ingredient through evaporative crystallisation using a spray dryer to study the physicochemical properties of the drug and to use semi-empirical equations to gain insight into the morphology and particle size of the dried powder. Paracetamol solutions were spray dried at various inlet temperatures ranging from 60 °C to 120 °C and also from a series of inlet feed solvent compositions ranging from 50/50% v/v ethanol/water to 100% ethanol and solid-state characterisation was done. The size and morphology of the dried materials were altered with a change in spray drying parameters, with an increase in inlet temperature leading to an increase in particle Sauter mean diameter (from 3.0 to 4.4 µm) and a decrease in the particle size with an increase in ethanol concentration in the feed (from 4.6 to 4.4 µm) as a result of changes in particle density and atomised droplet size. The morphology of the dried particles consisted of agglomerates of individual crystallites bound together into larger semi-spherical agglomerates with a higher tendency for particles having crystalline ridges to form at higher ethanol concentrations of the feed. 相似文献