Limit load and shakedown analysis of plastic structures under stochastic uncertainty

Problems from plastic analysis are based on the convex, linear or linearised yield/strength condition and the linear equilibrium equation for the stress (state) vector. In practice one has to take into account stochastic variations of several model parameters. Hence, in order to get robust maximum load factors, the structural analysis problem with random parameters must be replaced by an appropriate deterministic substitute problem. A direct approach is proposed based on the primary costs for missing carrying capacity and the recourse costs (e.g. costs for repair, compensation for weakness within the structure, damage, failure, etc.). Based on the mechanical survival conditions of plasticity theory, a quadratic error/loss criterion is developed. The minimum recourse costs can be determined then by solving an optimisation problem having a quadratic objective function and linear constraints. For each vector a(·) of model parameters and each design vector x, one obtains then an explicit representation of the “best” internal load distribution F^∗. Moreover, also the expected recourse costs can be determined explicitly. Consequently, an explicit stochastic nonlinear program results for finding a robust maximal load factor μ^∗. The analytical properties and possible solution procedures are discussed.     

Metaheuristics for the dynamic stochastic dial-a-ride problem with expected return transports

The problem of transporting patients or elderly people has been widely studied in literature and is usually modeled as a dial-a-ride problem (DARP). In this paper we analyze the corresponding problem arising in the daily operation of the Austrian Red Cross. This nongovernmental organization is the largest organization performing patient transportation in Austria. The aim is to design vehicle routes to serve partially dynamic transportation requests using a fixed vehicle fleet. Each request requires transportation from a patient's home location to a hospital (outbound request) or back home from the hospital (inbound request). Some of these requests are known in advance. Some requests are dynamic in the sense that they appear during the day without any prior information. Finally, some inbound requests are stochastic. More precisely, with a certain probability each outbound request causes a corresponding inbound request on the same day. Some stochastic information about these return transports is available from historical data. The purpose of this study is to investigate, whether using this information in designing the routes has a significant positive effect on the solution quality. The problem is modeled as a dynamic stochastic dial-a-ride problem with expected return transports. We propose four different modifications of metaheuristic solution approaches for this problem. In detail, we test dynamic versions of variable neighborhood search (VNS) and stochastic VNS (S-VNS) as well as modified versions of the multiple plan approach (MPA) and the multiple scenario approach (MSA). Tests are performed using 12 sets of test instances based on a real road network. Various demand scenarios are generated based on the available real data. Results show that using the stochastic information on return transports leads to average improvements of around 15%. Moreover, improvements of up to 41% can be achieved for some test instances.     

Stochastic approximation learning for mixtures of multivariate elliptical distributions

Most of the current approaches to mixture modeling consider mixture components from a few families of probability distributions, in particular from the Gaussian family. The reasons of these preferences can be traced to their training algorithms, typically versions of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) method. The re-estimation equations needed by this method become very complex as the mixture components depart from the simplest cases. Here we propose to use a stochastic approximation method for probabilistic mixture learning. Under this method it is straightforward to train mixtures composed by a wide range of mixture components from different families. Hence, it is a flexible alternative for mixture learning. Experimental results are presented to show the probability density and missing value estimation capabilities of our proposal.     

Model predictive control for systems with stochastic multiplicative uncertainty and probabilistic constraints

Robust predictive control handles constrained systems that are subject to stochastic uncertainty but propagating the effects of uncertainty over a prediction horizon can be computationally expensive and conservative. This paper overcomes these issues through an augmented autonomous prediction formulation, and provides a method of handling probabilistic constraints and ensuring closed loop stability through the use of an extension of the concept of invariance, namely invariance with probability p.     

Geometrically non-linear behavior of structural systems with random material property: An asymptotic spectral stochastic approach

An asymptotic spectral stochastic approach is presented for computing the statistics of the equilibrium path in the post-bifurcation regime for structural systems with random material properties. The approach combines numerical implementation of Koiter’s asymptotic theory with a stochastic Galerkin scheme and collocation in stochastic space to quantify uncertainties in the parametric representation of the load–displacement relationship, specifically in the form of uncertain post-buckling slope, post-buckling curvature, and a family of stochastic displacement fields. Using the proposed method, post-buckling response statistics for two plane frames are obtained and shown to be in close agreement with those obtained from Monte Carlo simulation, provided a fine enough spectral representation is used to model the variability in the random dimension.     

Stochastic system transformation using generalized orthonormal basis functions with applications to continuous-time system identification

This paper studies the system transformation using generalized orthonormal basis functions that include the Laguerre basis as a special case. The transformation of the deterministic systems is studied in the literature, which is called the Hambo transform. The aim of the paper is to develop a transformation theory for stochastic systems. The paper establishes the equivalence of continuous and transformed-discrete-time stochastic systems in terms of solutions. The method is applied to the continuous-time system identification problem. It is shown that using the transformed signals the PO-MOESP subspace identification algorithm yields consistent estimates for system matrices. An example is included to illustrate the efficacy of the proposed identification method, and to make a comparison with the method using the Laguerre filter.     

Existence of optimal controls for systems driven by FBSDEs

We prove the existence of optimal relaxed controls as well as strict optimal controls for systems governed by non linear forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDEs). Our approach is based on weak convergence techniques for the associated FBSDEs in the Jakubowski S-topology and a suitable Skorokhod representation theorem.     

Iterative analysis of Markov regenerative models

Conventional algorithms for the steady-state analysis of Markov regenerative models suffer from high computational costs which are caused by densely populated matrices. In this paper, a new algorithm is suggested which avoids computing these matrices explicitly. Instead, a two-stage iteration scheme is used. An extended version of uniformization is applied as a subalgorithm to compute the required transient quantities “on-the fly”. The algorithm is formulated in terms of stochastic Petri nets. A detailed example illustrates the proposed concepts.     

Consistency property of extended least-squares parameter estimation for stochastic diffusion equation

The extended least-squares parameter estimate for stochastic heat diffusion equations is considered. The unknown parameter is a heat diffusion coefficient which is a function of a spatial variable. Almost sure convergence for the estimated parameter is proved. A numerical example is demonstrated for supporting the theoretical results developed here.     

Total allowable catch for managing squat lobster fishery using stochastic nonlinear programming

The authors’ work on lobster fishery in Chile is summarized in this paper. The paper presents the formulation and algorithmic resolution of a two-stage stochastic nonlinear programming model with recourse. The proposed model considers a long-term planning horizon and specifically allows an optimal total allowable catch quota to be obtained for the first planning period. This model takes into account biomass dynamics, the conditions guaranteeing sustained species management and uncertain parameters such as growth rate and species carrying capacity. These parameters are explicitly incorporated via a discrete random variable (scenarios). The proposed model is solved by Lagrangian decomposition using the algebraic modeling software AMPL, in combination with the solver MINOS to solve the nonlinear models resulting from the scenario decomposition. The article also presents the results obtained with this methodology and the conclusions drawn from the work.