Deterministic and probabilistic ship pitch prediction using a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing,reinforcement learning and improved QRNN

The deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship motion is important for safe navigation and stable real-time operational control of ships at sea. However, the volatility and randomness of ship motion, the non-adaptive nature of single predictors and the poor coverage of quantile regression pose serious challenges to uncertainty prediction, making research in this field limited. In this paper, a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing, reinforcement learning and improved quantile regression neural network (QRNN) is proposed to explore the deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship pitch motion. To validate the performance of the proposed multi-predictor integrated prediction model, an experimental study is conducted with three sets of actual ship longitudinal motions during sea trials in the South China Sea. The experimental results indicate that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the proposed model of deterministic prediction are 0.0254°, 0.0359°, and 0.0188°, respectively. Taking series #2 as an example, the prediction interval coverage probabilities (PICPs) of the proposed model of probability predictions at 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels (CLs) are 0.9400, 0.9800, and 1.0000, respectively. This study signifies that the proposed model can provide trusted deterministic predictions and can effectively quantify the uncertainty of ship pitch motion, which has the potential to provide practical support for ship early warning systems.     

广义正交码索引调制系统的性能分析

摘 要：为了提高码索引调制（code index modulation，CIM）系统的传输效率，提出了一种具有更低复杂度的单输入单输出（single input single output，SISO）的广义正交码索引调制（generalized orthogonal code index modulation，GQCIM）系统。CIM 系统使用扩频码和星座符号传输信息，但只能激活两个扩频码索引和一个调制符号。而 GQCIM 系统以一种新颖的方式克服了只激活一个调制符号的限制，同时充分利用了调制符号的正交性，增加扩频码索引以传输更多的额外信息位，提高了系统的传输效率。此外，分析了GQCIM系统的理论性能，推导了误码率性能的上界。通过蒙特卡罗仿真验证了GQCIM系统的性能，对比发现GQCIM系统的理论和仿真性能一致。而且在相同的传输效率下，结果显示GQCIM系统的性能优于同样具有正交性的调制系统，如广义码索引调制（generalized code index modulation，GCIM）系统、CIM系统、码索引调制-正交空间调制（code index modulation aided quadrature spatial modulation，CIM-QSM）系统、码索引调制-正交空间调制（code index modulation aided spatial modulation，CIM-SM）系统、脉冲索引调制（pulse index modulation，PIM）系统。     

The generalized Dice similarity measures for Pythagorean fuzzy multiple attribute group decision making

The Pythagorean fuzzy set (PFS) is characterized by two functions expressing the degree of membership and the degree of nonmembership, which square sum of them is equal or less than 1. It was proposed as a generalization of a fuzzy set to deal with indeterminate and inconsistent information. In this study, we shall present some novel Dice similarity measures of PFSs and the generalized Dice similarity measures of PFSs and indicates that the Dice similarity measures and asymmetric measures (projection measures) are the special cases of the generalized Dice similarity measures in some parameter values. Then, we propose the generalized Dice similarity measures-based multiple attribute group decision-making models with Pythagorean fuzzy information. Then, we apply the generalized Dice similarity measures between PFSs to multiple attribute group decision making. Finally, an illustrative example is given to demonstrate the efficiency of the similarity measures for selecting the desirable ERP system.     

Transport Map sampling with PGD model reduction for fast dynamical Bayesian data assimilation

The motivation of this work is to address real-time sequential inference of parameters with a full Bayesian formulation. First, the proper generalized decomposition (PGD) is used to reduce the computational evaluation of the posterior density in the online phase. Second, Transport Map sampling is used to build a deterministic coupling between a reference measure and the posterior measure. The determination of the transport maps involves the solution of a minimization problem. As the PGD model is quasi-analytical and under a variable separation form, the use of gradient and Hessian information speeds up the minimization algorithm. Eventually, uncertainty quantification on outputs of interest of the model can be easily performed due to the global feature of the PGD solution over all coordinate domains. Numerical examples highlight the performance of the method.     

On global Hessenberg based methods for solving Sylvester matrix equations

In the first part of this paper, we investigate the use of Hessenberg-based methods for solving the Sylvester matrix equation $AX+XB=C$. To achieve this goal, the Sylvester form of the global generalized Hessenberg process is presented. Using this process, different methods based on a Petrov–Galerkin or on a minimal norm condition are derived. In the second part, we focus on the SGl-CMRH method which is based on the Sylvester form of the Hessenberg process with pivoting strategy combined with a minimal norm condition. In order to accelerate the SGl-CMRH method, a preconditioned framework of this method is also considered. It includes both fixed and flexible variants of the SGl-CMRH method. Moreover, the connection between the flexible preconditioned SGl-CMRH method and the fixed one is studied and some upper bounds for the residual norm are obtained. In particular, application of the obtained theoretical results is investigated for the special case of solving linear systems of equations with several right-hand sides. Finally, some numerical experiments are given in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.     

Recursive generalized extended least squares and RML algorithms for identification of bilinear systems with ARMA noise

Bilinear systems are considered as a particular class of nonlinear systems including the state variables which are typically used for online identification. By using a recursive identification method and the maximum likelihood principle, this paper presents two recursive-based algorithms to identify the parameters of bilinear in parameter systems with ARMA noise. In this regard, recursive generalized extended least squares (RGELS) and recursive Maximum Likelihood (RML) algorithms have been proposed for identification of bilinear systems. These algorithms can be used as an alternative choice in system identification with acceptable performance. The proposed algorithms estimate the correlated noise parameters with high accuracy by making full use of the measurement data. Simulation results indicate that the proposed algorithms are effective for online identification of bilinear in parameter systems with high convergence speed.     

基于广义逆矩阵理论的杆系结构形态创构方法#br#

广义逆矩阵理论被广泛应用于不稳定结构的形态分析。不稳定结构在荷载作用下，其形状会发生变化直至其势能达到最低，此时的结构处于无弯矩的平衡状态。根据该原理并结合广义逆矩阵理论提出一种适用于杆系结构的形态创构方法。该方法将杆系模型中杆单元进行分组，在每一组中杆单元总长度不变的条件下，建立控制结构形状变化的移形方程。利用广义逆矩阵理论和势能梯度确定使模型势能下降最快的方向，并逐步调整节点位置直至势能达到最低。临时单元和单元组的引入使得该方法可以应用于多种形式结构的形态创构，合理地设置单元组和临时单元可以实现单元长度与单元内力的重新分配进而实现诸多功能。算例分析说明该方法的特性并验证其有效性。     

The phase change thermoelastic analysis of biological tissue with variable thermal properties during cryosurgery

Abstract

In this work, the coupling phase change heat transfer process and thermal stress behavior of biological tissue during cryosurgery are studied in the context of a generalized thermoelastic theory. The nonlinear governing equations are constructed while considering the variable thermal properties and solved by a time-domain finite element method based on the effective heat capacity formulation. A 2-D tumor and normal tissue model is adopted for simulating the freezing process in cryosurgery. The effects of temperature-dependent thermal properties and relaxation time on the responses of biological tissue are discussed and illustrated graphically.     

Research on the identification performance of UHF RFID system considering the correlation of cascaded channel

The identification rate of UHF RFID system was restricted by multipath propagation effects.The system identification performance was studied considering the correlation coefficient between forward and reverse channels.Based on the generalized Rician fading channel model,the analytical expression of identification rate was derived under independent,full correlation and correlation cases.Compared with the existing analysis,the proposed uniform calculation formula of identification rate was for any correlation coefficient and kinds of channel conditions.The numerical computation and Monte-carlo simulations show that the influences of different correlation coefficients,channel conditions,sensitivity and distance on the identification rate.     

基于广义隐马尔可夫模型的PM2.5浓度预测

近年来，以PM_2.5为主要污染物的重霾污染事件频频发生，给我国国民经济和居民健康造成了严重损失。在空气质量尚未得到根本性改善的情况下，对重霾污染的准确预警不仅能使公众合理回避污染危害，还能为政府实施应急管理提供时间裕量。针对影响PM_2.5浓度的前体物及气象因素的非高斯分布特点以及传统隐马尔可夫模型（hidden Markov model，HMM）必须已知隐含状态个数的缺点，采用广义隐马尔可夫模型（generalized hidden Markov model，GHMM）对北京市除去定陵外的11个国控站点2013年1月～2017年1月的PM_2.5浓度进行了预测。结果表明：GHMM对严重污染及以上PM_2.5样本浓度预测准确率显著高于传统连续HMM，但针对中度污染及以下PM_2.5样本浓度的预测准确率接近传统HMM。