基于Wiener过程的航天继电器可靠性评估方法

提出了一种利用Wiener过程进行航天继电器可靠性评估的方法。从失效物理的角度判定退化数据是否符合Wiener过程，根据随机过程理论建立了失效概率、失效概率密度以及可靠度的退化模型，并利用极大似然理论对模型中的未知参量进行似然估计，实现可靠性评估。最后对某型号航天继电器进行可靠性寿命试验，验证了所提方法的合理性与有效性。     

Existence of the l-th moment of a solution to a stochastic functional-differential equation with the entire prehistory

The definition of a strong solution to a stochastic differential-functional equation with the entire prehistory is given, and basic inequalities required for obtaining existence and uniqueness theorems are proved. Global existence and uniqueness theorems are proved. __________ Translated from Kibernetika i Sistemnyi Analiz, No. 4, pp. 142–151, July–August 2008.     

Stability of solutions of stochastic functional-differential equations with poisson switchings and entire prehistory

The Markov properties of the solutions of Ito-Skorokhod stochastic functional-differential equations (SFDEs) with entire prehistory are considered, the concept of a weak infinitesimal operator is introduced for a Markov process that is a solution of an SFDE, and the strong solution of the SFDE is analyzed for stability. Translated from Kibernetika i Sistemnyi Analiz, No. 1, pp. 123–134, January–February 2009.     

Optimal non-periodic inspection for a multivariate degradation model

We address the problem of determining inspection and maintenance strategy for a system whose state is described by a multivariate stochastic process. We relax and extend the usual approaches. The system state is a multivariate stochastic process, decisions are based on a performance measure defined by the values of a functional on the process, and the replacement decision is based on the crossings of a critical levels. The critical levels are defined for the performance measure itself and also as the probability of never returning to a satisfactory level of performance. The inspection times are determined by a deterministic function of the system state. A non-periodic policy is developed by evaluating the expected lifetime costs and the optimal policy by an optimal choice of inspection function. The model thus gives a guaranteed level of reliability throughout the life of the project. In the particular case studied here, the underlying process is a multivariate Wiener process, the performance measure is the ?₂ norm, and the last exit time from a critical set rather than the first hitting time determines the policy.     

Some Continuous Models of Inventory Control

The problem of optimal control of a manufacturing process is investigated. The dynamics of the process is described by a stochastic differential equation. Two methods of solution of this problem are considered. __________ Translated from Kibernetika i Sistemnyi Analiz, No. 3, pp. 175–178, May–June 2005.     

STABILITY ANALYSIS OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS UNDER RANDOM PERTURBATION

Based on the theory of stochastic differential equation,the stability of a kind ofcontinuous-time generalized Hopfield neural networks with white noise perturbation is studiedin the paper,and the related stability criteria and design requirements of neural networks areestablished.     

基于主元数据的大型复杂机电设备寿命预测方法

针对单一表征参数的大型复杂机电设备寿命预测方法无法全面表征设备退化轨迹以及多表征参数之间存在相关性从而影响寿命预测准确性的问题，提出一种基于表征参数数据融合的大型复杂机电设备的寿命预测方法。先提出一种加权主成分分析法，对多种表征设备退化的参数进行融合，得到可以表征设备退化且相互之间不存在相关性的主元数据；然后，建立基于主元数据的维纳退化过程模型；最后，选取数控机床进给系统的双向定位精度、双向重复定位精度、反向间隙误差、直线度4种表征参数对应的数据对模型进行了具体的分析和验证。试验结果表明：与基于单一表征参数和多表征参数的寿命预测模型相比，融合后的主元参数能够更好地表征设备的退化过程，从而可以更精确地实现设备的剩余寿命估计。     

工业锂电池退化过程研究与剩余使用寿命预测

随着锂离子电池在航空航天、军工建设、工业制造、电动汽车以及储能设备等领域的广泛研究与应用，其剩余使用寿命预测具有重要意义.本文通过对锂离子电池退化原理与退化过程数据分析，剔除锂离子电池松弛效应，建立含随机效应的Wiener退化过程模型.在获知其退化阈值的情况下，推导出锂离子电池的寿命分布，并在此基础上，对单个锂离子电池剩余使用寿命进行预测.最后在NASA的PCoE数据库提供的电池数据集进行实例验证，结果表明相对于参考文献所述传统的设备贮存-工作联合退化模型，Wiener过程退化模型具有更高的预测精度.     

累积冲击作用下可恢复退化过程的可靠度评估

以对激光器进行可靠度评估为背景,在考虑累积冲击与自然退化同时引起产品失效的基础上,重点研究了冲击时间间隔对产品退化量的影响,建立了累积冲击作用下可恢复的退化模型。根据自然退化过程及泊松冲击更新理论,研究了累积冲击模型和累积冲击下的退化失效模型。引入条件分布,分析冲击时间间隔对退化量的影响,得出了累积泊松冲击下的可恢复退化失效模型。结合性能退化分析,给出了可恢复的退化过程的失效分布函数和可靠度函数。进行了激光器退化试验,结果表明:当激光器工作2 000h时,利用累积冲击下可恢复的退化失效模型评估得到的可靠度为0.53,与仿真结果相符,为利用累积冲击下退化失效模型评估得到的可靠度的2.79倍。结果验证了本文提出的利用可恢复的退化模型进行可靠度评估的合理性。