Unreliable numbers: error and harm induced by bad design can be reduced by better design

Number entry is a ubiquitous activity and is often performed in safety- and mission-critical procedures, such as healthcare, science, finance, aviation and in many other areas. We show that Monte Carlo methods can quickly and easily compare the reliability of different number entry systems. A surprising finding is that many common, widely used systems are defective, and induce unnecessary human error. We show that Monte Carlo methods enable designers to explore the implications of normal and unexpected operator behaviour, and to design systems to be more resilient to use error. We demonstrate novel designs with improved resilience, implying that the common problems identified and the errors they induce are avoidable.     

胸腺五肽辅助治疗肺癌对免疫功能影响及其疗效的系统评价

为了系统地评价胸腺五肽作为辅助药物治疗各种肺癌的疗效及其对机体免疫功能的影响，利用电子检索收集有关胸腺五肽联合放疗或化疗方案治疗肺癌的临床随机对照试验文献，对符合纳入标准的文献，采用RevMan5.3 软件进行系统评价。最终共纳入文献 9 篇，总样本量 784 例。Meta 分析结果表明，胸腺五肽作为辅助药物治疗各种肺癌提高总有效率的差异无统计学意义[OR ＝ 1.44, 95%CI(0.99, 2.10), P ＝0.06 ＞ 0.05]。在对免疫功能的影响方面，胸腺五肽的使用显著增高外周血中的 CD3+ 细胞水平[OR ＝ 5.88, 95% CI(2.34, 9.42), P ＝0.001]，CD4+ 细胞水平也显著上升[OR ＝8.32, 95%CI(5.22, 11.42), P ＜ 0.00001] , CD4＋ /CD8＋比值也有明显的提高[OR ＝ 0.38, 95% CI(0.18, 0.59), P＝0.0002]，但 CD8+ 细胞水平的差异无统计学意义[OR ＝－3.12, 95% CI ( －9.02, 2.79), P ＞0.05]。总的来说，本研究在一定程度上反映了在辅助治疗肺癌方面，胸腺五肽能显著提高外周血中的 CD3+ 细胞水平、CD4+ 细胞水平、CD4+/CD8+ 比值。而对于治疗的有效率、CD8+ 细胞水平，差异无统计学意义。     

Systematic convergence of nonlinear stochastic estimators on the Special Orthogonal Group SO(3)

This paper introduces two novel nonlinear stochastic attitude estimators developed on the Special Orthogonal Group with the tracking error of the normalized Euclidean distance meeting predefined transient and steady‐state characteristics. The tracking error is confined to initially start within a predetermined large set such that the transient performance is guaranteed to obey dynamically reducing boundaries and decrease smoothly and asymptotically to the origin in probability from almost any initial condition. The proposed estimators produce accurate attitude estimates with remarkable convergence properties using measurements obtained from low‐cost inertial measurement units. The estimators proposed in continuous form are complemented by their discrete versions for the implementation purposes. The simulation results illustrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed estimators against uncertain measurements and large initialization error, whether in continuous or discrete form.     

Methods of Verifying Continuous Automatic Belt Weighers: State and Prospects

The basic methods of verifying continuous automatic belt weighers are described. A comparative analysis of these methods on the basis of experimental studies is made and ways of implementing the results in industry are recommended.     

低差错平底特性的非规则LDPC码的设计

介绍了非规则LDPC码的发展并给出了其优势及缺点，重点论述用ACE算法来构造非规则LDPC码从而降低其差错平底特性。对降低非规则LDPC码的差错平底特性的其它方法提出了展望。     

心电地图仪中工频干扰的一种滤除方法

在心电地图仪中记录到的体表心电信号往往由于电磁的影响而引进工频干扰．基于体表心电信号中工频干扰的特点，作者提出了一种滤除工频干扰的方法，即就单独—胸导联信号通过提高频谱的分辨率来估计工频干扰的频率；基于最小均方误差准则来估计各导联信号中工频干扰的幅度和相位。文中还给出了该算法的流程图和滤波性能分析。模拟结果表明了该算法的有效性。应用该算法对心电地图仪中的工频干扰进行对消，取得了满意的结果。     

石油测井仪器可靠性指标探讨

在分析常用可靠性指标及其应用现状的基础上，根据可靠性理论及石油测井仪器的特点。提出了石油测井仪器的可靠性模型。在探讨常用可靠性指标对石油测井仪器适用性的同时，提出将平衡稳定工作时间NWTURE和免维修测井井次NOLWNM作为石油测井仪器可靠性指标的思想；探讨了获取可靠性指标的途径。给出了推荐使用的石油测井仪器可靠性指标。     

测定钠中杂质的手动阻塞计的研究

文章介绍了测定钠中杂质浓度的手动阻塞计的原理、装置和实验结果。为了减少测量误差,我们研究了影响准确测定阻塞温度的因素,并且找到了减少测量误差的办法。在同样的杂质饱和温度下,该阻塞计测得的高、低阻塞温度所对应的杂质浓度差是很接近的。对氧其差值为1.03ppm;对氢为0.0763ppm。     

A family of lower- and higher-order transversal linearization techniques in non-linear stochastic engineering dynamics

Sample pathwise numerical integration of noise-driven engineering dynamical systems cannot generally be performed beyond a limited level of accuracy, especially when the noise processes are modelled using (filtered) white noises. Recently, a locally transversal linearization (LTL) strategy has been proposed by the author (Proc Roy Soc London A 2001; 457 :539–566) for direct integration of deterministic and stochastic non-linear dynamical systems. The present effort is focussed on a host of extensions along with detailed theoretical error analyses of the linearization approach, especially as applied to problems in non-linear stochastic engineering dynamics. Thus, to begin with, estimates of local and global error orders in the basic LTL scheme are obtained separately for the displacement and velocity vectors when the system is driven either by a set of additive noises or by an arbitrary combination of (independently evolving) additive and multiplicative noises. Following this, a new family of higher-order LTL schemes is proposed in order to improve upon the basic LTL method and the associated error orders are established. A stepwise implementation of the lower- and higher-order versions of the LTL method, along with certain computational aspects, is also outlined. The proposed schemes are numerically illustrated, to a limited extent, for a single degree-of-freedom (SDOF) and a two degree-of-freedom (TDOF) non-linear engineering systems under additive and/or multiplicative white noise excitations. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Modified Variational-Gradient Method for Quasilinear Equations

A modified variational-gradient method is proposed and substantiated for quasilinear operator equations in a Hilbert space.