Deterministic and probabilistic ship pitch prediction using a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing,reinforcement learning and improved QRNN

The deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship motion is important for safe navigation and stable real-time operational control of ships at sea. However, the volatility and randomness of ship motion, the non-adaptive nature of single predictors and the poor coverage of quantile regression pose serious challenges to uncertainty prediction, making research in this field limited. In this paper, a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing, reinforcement learning and improved quantile regression neural network (QRNN) is proposed to explore the deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship pitch motion. To validate the performance of the proposed multi-predictor integrated prediction model, an experimental study is conducted with three sets of actual ship longitudinal motions during sea trials in the South China Sea. The experimental results indicate that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the proposed model of deterministic prediction are 0.0254°, 0.0359°, and 0.0188°, respectively. Taking series #2 as an example, the prediction interval coverage probabilities (PICPs) of the proposed model of probability predictions at 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels (CLs) are 0.9400, 0.9800, and 1.0000, respectively. This study signifies that the proposed model can provide trusted deterministic predictions and can effectively quantify the uncertainty of ship pitch motion, which has the potential to provide practical support for ship early warning systems.     

Mass transfer area in a multi-stage high-speed disperser with split packing

In this study, the mean droplet diameter in the cavity zone and the total mass transfer area of a multi-stage highspeed disperser(HSD) reactor with different packing combinations were measured and evaluated. The effects of rotational speed and packing radius, as well as the packing ring radius and numbers, on the mean droplet diameter and the total mass transfer area were evaluated. A model was established to calculate the mass transfer area in the cavity zone in the HSD reactor, and it was found that the packings contribute 61%–82% of the total mass transfer area. A correlation for predicting the mass transfer area in the packing zone was regressed by the dimensionless analysis method. An enhancement factor based on the mass transfer area in the packing zone was proposed to evaluate the effect of packing combination on mass transfer area. Two optimum packing combinations were proposed in consideration of the mean droplet diameter and the enhancement factor.     

石墨烯浓度对藜麦幼苗根系生长的影响研究

石墨烯能够在一定的程度上对藜麦的根系形态及生物量产生巨大的影响。主要研究石墨烯对藜麦幼苗的根系形态、生物量的影响。     

A constrained portfolio selection model at considering risk-adjusted measure by using hybrid meta-heuristic algorithms

Portfolio selection is a key issue in the business world and financial fields. This article presents a new decision making method of portfolio optimization (PO) issues in different risk measures by using new evolutionary computing method and cardinality constrains which is mentioned as hybrid meta-heuristic algorithms. Based on mean–variance (MV) Method by Markowitz we collected three risk levels; mean absolute deviation (MAD), semi variance (SV) and variance with skewness (VWS). The developed algorithms are Electromagnetism-like algorithm (EM), particle swarm optimization (PSO), genetic algorithm (GA), genetic network programming (GNP) and simulated annealing (SA). Also a diversification mechanism strategy is implemented and hybridized with the developed algorithms to increase the diversity and overcome local optimality. The sustainability of this proposed model is verified by 50 factories on the Iranian stock exchange. Finally, experimental results of proposed algorithms with cardinality constraint are compared with each other by four effective metrics in which the algorithms performance for achieving the optimal solution discussed. In addition, we have done the analysis of variance technique to confirm the validity and accurately analyze of the results which the success of this method was proved.     

基于多尺度高斯核的分布式正则化回归学习算法

针对工业、信息等领域出现的基于较大规模、非平稳变化复杂数据的回归问题,已有算法在计算成本及拟合效果方面无法同时满足要求.因此,文中提出基于多尺度高斯核的分布式正则化回归学习算法.算法中的假设空间为多个具有不同尺度的高斯核生成的再生核Hilbert空间的和空间.考虑到整个数据集划分的不同互斥子集波动程度不同,建立不同组合系数核函数逼近模型.利用最小二乘正则化方法同时独立求解各逼近模型.最后,通过对所得的各个局部估计子加权合成得到整体逼近模型.在2个模拟数据集和4个真实数据集上的实验表明,文中算法既能保证较优的拟合性能,又能降低运行时间.     

Root cause analysis of process fault conditions on an industrial concentrator circuit by use of causality maps and extreme learning machines

Model-based fault diagnosis tends to be too expensive or time-consuming to apply in the mineral processing industries, owing to the complexity and variability of operations. In contrast, data-based methods are inexpensive, but do not exploit the availability of first principle knowledge of plant operations. In this investigation, the use of process causality maps in conjunction with data-based fault diagnosis is considered as a hybrid methodology that can leverage the advantages of both approaches. Extreme learning machine algorithms are used to implement the data-based component of the approach. These algorithms can be deployed rapidly on large-scale systems and have the ability to deal with highly nonlinear systems. Two different variants are considered, viz. one used in combination with principal component analysis, as well as one with a bagging algorithm for fault diagnosis and applied to an industrial concentrator circuit in South Africa. The use of process causality maps led to significantly more effective fault diagnosis, while the use of extreme learning machines in combination with principal component analysis likewise allowed markedly better fault detection and diagnosis. In contrast, fault diagnosis with the bagging approach did not perform particularly well, owing to the high degree of correlation between the variables, which made it difficult to isolate individual causal variables.     

Harmonics and inter harmonics estimation of DFIG based standalone wind power system by parametric techniques

This paper presents application of parametric techniques (Estimation of signal parameter by rotational invariance techniques (ESPRIT), Root multiple signal classification (Root MUSIC)) for the estimation of harmonics/inter harmonics produced by wind generator under constant, variable rotor speed, load imbalance. Accuracy of estimation by parametric techniques is checked on synthetic signal as well as signal extracted from DFIG based standalone system with constant rotor speed and balanced load condition. Further sliding window concept is applied to parametric techniques to estimate the harmonics/inter harmonics under variable rotor speed and load unbalance. Series of simulation results demonstrate the advantages of the sliding window ESPRIT over sliding window Root MUSIC in the estimation of harmonics and inter harmonics under variable rotor speed as well as load unbalance condition.     

An investigation into the cause of loss of containment from the supply of mini-bulk lubricants

An Intermediate Bulk Container (IBC) was punctured during its handling, releasing oil onto soil at an environmentally-sensitive region of Australia. The telehandler did not pierce the plastic of the IBC directly (as was expected) but rather one of the tynes had caught on the underside of the metal base plate, despite numerous controls being in place at time of spill, revealing a previously unreported mechanism for a fluid spill from handling of petroleum hydrocarbons. The diverse investigation team used a root cause analysis (RCA) technique to identify the underlying cause: the inspection process was inadequate with contributing factors of not using a spotter and design of IBC did not anticipate conditions. Engineering controls were put in place as part of the change management process to help prevent spills from occurring from piercing from telehandler tynes on the current project site.     

Levelized cost of energy definition – An economic paradox

Using mean value theorem for integrals we show that the well-known LCOE definition is incorrect.